The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a 12-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Four pitchers on today’s slate own a salary of at least $10,100 on DraftKings:
- Corey Kluber (R) $10,900, CLE @ CWS
- Stephen Strasburg (R) $10,700, WAS vs. MIA
- Jameson Taillon (R) $10,500, PIT @ CHC
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $10,100, LAD @ ARI
Kluber has a strong matchup vs. the Chicago White Sox, whose projected lineup has struggled to a .309 wOBA and 28.0% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. He dominated this same team in his most recent outing, tallying 11 strikeouts over eight innings pitched, and his Vegas data in today’s matchup is strong: 3.2 opponent implied team total, -268 moneyline odds. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.44 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
The one big concern with Kluber is his recent Statcast data. He’s allowed his past two opponents to post a hard-hit rate of 48%, which represents an increase of +12 percentage points compared to his 12-month average.
Strasburg might be in the best spot of the day vs. the Miami Marlins. He leads all pitchers with an opponent implied team total of 2.9 runs, and his moneyline odds of -250 ranks second. The Marlins’ projected lineup has posted a splits-adjusted strikeout rate of 28.9%, so Strasburg also owns an elite K Prediction of 9.0.
Unfortunately, the weather in Washington could be a factor – the current forecast calls for a 46% chance of precipitation at game time – so you’ll have to monitor it prior to lineup lock.
Taillon is in an intriguing spot vs. the Chicago Cubs. It’s obviously a difficult matchup – the Cubs’ projected lineup has averaged a .322 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months – and his opponent implied team total of 4.4 runs is significantly higher than the marks of the other stud pitchers.
That said, he enters today’s contest in elite recent form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 173 feet and hard-hit rate of 20%, both of which represent significant decreases compared to his 12-month averages. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and recent Statcast data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.81 and a Consistency Rating of 63.7% on DraftKings.
Kershaw continues to excel at preventing runs, allowing three earned runs or fewer in every start since coming off the disabled list on June 26. Unfortunately, his fantasy numbers have been capped by pedestrian strikeout numbers: He owns a K/9 of just 8.08 over the second half of the season.
Things don’t figure to get much better today vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks. They’ve performed well against lefties when playing at home, owning a .334 wOBA in 2018. Kershaw has also been hit uncharacteristically hard recently, allowing his past two opponents to post an average exit velocity of 96 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 50%. He will likely be over-owned in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) because of his name value and doesn’t seem particularly safe for cash games, either.
Values
James Paxton will come off the disabled list for the Mariners after missing the past few weeks due to a combination of pneumonia and the flu. The Mariners need to win today to have any chance of claiming the second Wild Card spot, so it’s possible that they push Paxton a little harder than usual in his first start back.
If he does pitch deep into this game, he’ll have the opportunity to pile up a bunch of strikeouts. He’s pitched to a K/9 of 11.58 over the past 12 months, and his K Prediction of 8.3 trails only Strasburg’s on today’s slate.
Nathan Eovaldi is affordable at just $7,300 on DraftKings and has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Baltimore Orioles. Their projected lineup has struggled to a .268 wOBA vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, and their implied team total of 3.4 runs is tied for the third-lowest mark on the slate. The Red Sox are implied for 5.4 runs, making Eovaldi a massive -230 favorite.
He also enters today’s contest in excellent recent form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 196 feet, exit velocity of 83 mph, and hard-hit rate of 17%; all three represent significant decreases compared to his 12-month averages.
Fastballs
Jack Flaherty: He has a difficult matchup vs. the Milwaukee Brewers but owns excellent strikeout upside at $9,100 on DraftKings. He’s posted a K/9 of 10.81 over the past 12 months, and the Brewers own the fourth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in 2018.
Derek Holland: He’s taking on the San Diego Padres, and their projected lineup has posted a dreadful 28.5% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months. He failed to return value in this same matchup in his last start, but that could lower his ownership for today’s rematch.
Cole Hamels: He’s pitching at home in Chicago, which automatically puts him on the radar for daily fantasy baseball. He’s posted a 1.30 ERA and 10.1 K/9 in four starts in Chicago this season and owns a career ERA of 1.79 at Wrigley Field.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
- 1. Matt Carpenter (L)
- 2. Jose Martinez (R)
- 3. Paul DeJong (R)
- 4. Marcell Ozuna (R)
- 6. Yadier Molina (R)
Total Salary: $20,500
The Cardinals are implied for 4.5 runs, which is just the seventh-highest mark on today’s slate. That said, they do have some factors working in their favor. First, their implied team total has already increased by 0.2 runs since opening at 4.3. The Brewers are also starting the game by sending left-hander Dan Jennings to the mound, and he’s allowed batters to post a hard-hit rate of 66% over the past 15 days. He likely won’t pitch very deep into this game – it’s entirely possible he’ll give way after facing Carpenter to lead off the game – and Chase Anderson is expected to pitch the majority of the innings out of the bullpen. He doesn’t figure to provide much relief, however: He’s pitched to a 5.22 FIP in 2018.
Coors Field is also available on today’s slate, and the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
- 1. Cesar Hernandez (S)
- 2. Rhys Hoskins (R)
- 3. Jose Bautista (R)
- 6. Aaron Altherr (R)
Total Salary: $13,700
The Phillies’ implied team total of 4.5 runs is mediocre for a Coors Field squad, but their top batters do look like nice values on FanDuel. Hernandez and Bautista look like particularly strong values, with each owning a Bargain Rating of at least 97%. They’re taking on Rockies right-hander Jon Gray, who has been absolutely rocked over his past two starts. He’s allowed an average distance of 245 feet, exit velocity of 100 mph, and hard-hit rate of 57%, all three of which represent massive increases compared to his 12-month averages.
The Phillies batters have also collectively been swinging the bat well recently, with Hernandez, Bautista, and Altherr each owning a 15-day/12-month distance differential of at least +9 feet.
Other Batters
Charlie Blackmon is priced at just $5,200 on DraftKings, which is pretty cheap for him at Coors. The Rockies are implied for 6.1 runs, and Blackmon has posted a distance differential of +22 feet and hard-hit differential of +14 percentage points over his past 14 games. This seems like an excellent opportunity to buy him at a relative discount.
Kole Calhoun is another leadoff hitter worth considering. He’s priced at just $3,400 on DraftKings, and the Angels are implied for a respectable 4.9 runs vs. Rangers right-hander Adrian Sampson. Calhoun has posted an exit velocity of 95 mph and hard-hit rate of 45% over his past 13 games.
Marwin Gonzalez is priced at just $3,700 on DraftKings and is expected to occupy the cleanup spot for the Houston Astros. They have an implied team total of 5.2 runs, and Gonzalez owns a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +30 feet. He’s a nice option for those looking to pay up for an expensive pitcher or stack and has eligibility as a shortstop and outfielder.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Charlie Blackmon
Photo credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
