The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a 12-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are only two pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
- Zack Wheeler (R) $10,400, NYM @ PHI
- Patrick Corbin (L) $10,000, ARI vs. CHI
It’s not very often that the highest-priced pitcher on the slate is a +108 underdog, but Wheeler will take on a Jake Arrieta-led Phillies team implied for 3.9 runs. In addition to subpar Vegas data, it’s difficult to pay all the way up for Wheeler in cash games, as his 6.5 K Prediction is merely seventh highest on the slate.
One puzzling thing about Wheeler is his recent Statcast data. Despite his slate-high 45% fly-ball rate, he owns a slate-best 17% hard-hit rate. It could easily be short-term variance, but, historically, similarly-priced pitchers with comparable Statcast numbers have been strong options with a +2.43 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 56.0% Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool).
Corbin could go under-owned in favor of more appealing options the mid range. That said, Vegas leans toward the Diamondbacks as -134 moneyline favorites against a Cubs team implied for a bottom-three 3.5 runs. Corbin’s recent form stands out as the biggest risk if you are considering him in cash games, as his -80 Recent Batted Ball Luck (BBL) score is the worst in the slate. Still, Corbin almost always carries slate-winning upside in tournaments: His 8.1 K Prediction leads all pitchers today.
>> Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to get the smartest conversation delivered into your inbox each morning.
Values
Erick Fedde is cheap at $5,300 on DraftKings, where he owns a 74% Bargain Rating. He stands out as the clear value option to attack on today’s slate, coming off a nine-strikeout performance in his last start. From that perspective, his 6.9 K Prediction is certainly reasonable.
The Nats are sizable -150 moneyline favorites against a Marlins team that struggles mightily against right-handed pitching, ranking just 26th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+).
Fastballs
Hyun-jin Ryu: The Dodgers are the fourth-largest favorite on the slate (-156), and Ryu sports a top-three K Prediction (7.1). Further, the Rockies’ projected lineup owns the third-highest strikeout rate (26.2%) on the entire slate.
Wade Miley: The opposing Reds rank fourth in wRC+ against lefties this season, so the matchup doesn’t come without risk. However, Miley has been absolutely dealing lately, yielding a recent batted-ball distance of 164 feet, exit velocity of 88 mph, and 11% and 20% fly-ball and hard-hit rates over his last two starts.
Michael Foltynewicz: He actually qualifies for the stud category on DraftKings but is a much better value on FanDuel with an 85% Bargain Rating. He has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in our MLB Models for Monday’s slate, which isn’t too surprising given that his 7.2 K Prediction trails only Corbin’s.
According to our MLB Trends tool, pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have averaged a +3.65 Plus/Minus on FanDuel along with a 59.4% Consistency Rating.
Joe Musgrove: The projected Royals lineup is below average against right-handed pitching with a .289 wOBA over the past year — fifth-worst on the entire slate. Musgrove lacks strikeout upside (5.8 K Prediction) but should be a relatively safe option, as the Pirates are today’s largest favorite (-170).
Note: Be sure and keep an eye on the weather in the KC-PIT game using our lineups page, as there is currently a 54% chance of rain at game time.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Rays, whose 5.7 implied run total leads the slate:
- 1. Mallex Smith (L)
- 2. Matt Duffy (R)
- 3. Ji-Man Choi (S)
- 4. Tommy Pham (R)
- 5. Joey Wendle (L)
Total Salary: $23,100
The Rays could be a popular way to pay down, as their 74 Team Value Rating trails only the Tigers’ mark of 77. They’re in a fantastic spot against Rangers righty Adrian Sampson, whose 3.38 HR/9 over the past year is bottom two on today’s slate.
There’s rarely a contrarian option with such a high implied total, but Choi may be worth eating some chalk given how he’s played over the past 15 days. He has been smashing with a 249-foot batted-ball distance, 94 mph exit velocity, and 48% and 54% fly-ball and hard-hit rates. Projected in the No. 3 position, Choi is on the right side of his batting splits, which include a .371 wOBA and .245 ISO against right-handed pitching.
In the same game, one of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the Bales Model belongs to the Rangers, who are implied for 4.9 runs:
- 1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
- 3. Elvis Andrus (R)
- 4. Nomar Mazara (L)
- 5. Adrian Beltre (R)
Total Salary: $13,100
Texas will square off against Rays righty Tyler Glasnow, who’s been getting absolutely rocked lately, allowing a batted-ball distance of 230 feet, exit velocity of 92 mph, and fly-ball rate of 44% over his last two starts.
Projected to bat third, Andrus is due for a breakout with a team-leading +64 BBL, and his $2,900 price tag opens up a ton in lineup construction. Beltre boasts elite recent batted-ball form, sporting a 262-foot average distance, 97 mph exit velocity, and 56% hard-hit rate.
Other Batters
If you are looking to get off the chalky Rangers-Rays game, the Nats are just outside the top tier of implied totals (4.7 runs) and could easily fly under the radar in guaranteed prize pools. It’s a smash spot against Marlins righty Trevor Richards, with the third-worst WHIP on the slate and a massive 233-foot batted-ball distance allowed over his past two starts.
Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon could make for a reasonable stacking pair in the Nos. 3 and No. 4 spots. Harper is on the right side of his batting splits with a strong .380 wOBA and .253 ISO over the past year. Rendon has been extremely reliable over his past 10 games, boasting a +4.45 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 80.0% Consistency Rating.
Reds pitcher Anthony DeSclafani remains a prime target for batters with the third-highest HR/9 over the past year in today’s slate. The player most likely to take advantage for the Brewers is probably Travis Shaw. His .276 ISO leads the team over the past year, and his 11 DraftKings Pro Trends are the most on the entire slate.
Priced at only $2,100 on FanDuel with a 99% Bargain Rating, J.T. Riddle stands out as one of the top punt options today, projected to lead off for the Marlins. His recent Statcast differentials versus his year-long averages are impressive, including a distance of +39 feet, exit velocity of +3 mph, and hard-hit rate of +4 percentage points.
If looking for a differentiating one-off play from your stacks, Kurt Suzuki could make sense even though he’s projected to bat fifth. His recent Statcast numbers are arguably the best on the entire slate, including a 261-foot batted-ball distance, 98 mph exit velocity, and 50% and 54% fly-ball and hard-hit rates over the last 15 days. Historically, batters in similar lineup spots have provided a +1.13 Plus/Minus and 21% Upside Rating.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Adrian Beltre
Photo credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
