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Monday features a two-game slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Anyone up for extra baseball? The NL Central and NL West division crowns are still up for grabs, so MLB is giving us a two-game appetizer before the Wild Card games start tomorrow. The Cubs will square off against the Brewers, and the Dodgers will meet the Rockies. The winners will advance straight to the NLDS. The losers will have to settle for a winner-take-all matchup in the NL Wild Card, so the stakes are high.
Pitchers
There are only four starters on today’s slate, but they do span the entire pricing spectrum on DraftKings:
- Walker Buehler (R) $10,200, LAD vs. COL
- German Marquez (R) $9,400, COL @ LAD
- Jose Quintana (L) $7,100, CHC vs. MIL
- Jhoulys Chacin (R) $5,300, MIL @ CHC
Buehler is the highest-priced option on the slate and has been the Dodgers’ best pitcher over the second half of the season. He’s pitched to a 2.21 ERA and 10.92 K/9, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +6.80 on DraftKings over his past 10 starts. He’s been even better when pitching at home, posting a Consistency Rating of 90.9% and Plus/Minus of +7.65 in 2018 (per the Trends tool). It’s easy to see why the Dodgers skipped his start on Sunday to save him for this game.
On paper, the Rockies look like a tough matchup. Their projected lineup has posted a .335 wOBA vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, but it’s important to remember that they play half their games at Coors Field. They’ve actually posted the worst wOBA in the majors when facing right-handers on the road this season. Unsurprisingly, Buehler owns strong marks in both opponent implied team total (3.1 runs) and moneyline odds (-161).
Buehler also enters today’s contest in outstanding recent form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 174 feet, which represents a decrease of -25 feet compared to his 12-month average. He should be the most popular pitching option on the slate.
Marquez has arguably been better than Buehler over the second half of the season, pitching to a 2.55 ERA and 2.04 FIP. He’s averaged 29.2 DraftKings points per start over the past month and an average Plus/Minus of +12.25 over his past 10 outings. That’s pretty damn impressive when you consider that roughly half of his starts take place in the worst pitching environment in all of baseball.
That won’t be an issue today in Los Angeles, which has historically favored pitching over hitting. Marquez has absolutely dominated when he has been away from Coors this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.94 over 15 starts.
The Dodgers are an absolutely brutal matchup for right-handed pitchers – their projected lineup has posted a .342 wOBA over the past 12 months – but Marquez does enter today’s contest in solid Statcast form. He’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -21 feet and also owns a slate-high K Prediction of 7.8. He has substantial upside even in a difficult matchup.
Quintana doesn’t have nearly the same appeal as the other two confirmed pitchers. He’s posted a pedestrian K/9 of 8.19 and ERA of 4.09 in 2018, which could spell trouble for the Milwaukee Brewers. Their projected lineup has posted a .336 wOBA and 20.5% strikeout rate against southpaws over the past 12 months, so they have the potential to do a lot of damage in this matchup. Quintana’s low K Prediction of 4.1 means they should put plenty of balls in play at the bare minimum.
Making matters worse is his recent Statcast numbers. He’s allowed his past three opponents to post an average distance of 226 feet, which represents an increase of +17 feet compared to his 12-month average.
The Brewers starter was the last to be confirmed, but manager Craig Counsell ultimately decided to give the ball to the veteran, Chacin. His choice was ultimately not that surprising given Chacin’s success against the Cubs this season. He’s merely 2-2 vs. Chicago but has posted a 1.59 ERA and limited opposing batters to a .185 batting average. He’s also racked up 27 strikeouts in just 22.2 innings pitched. His last start came on Sept. 26, so he’s also on full rest.
His $5,300 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 97% and makes him a viable option at SP2. Pairing Marquez and Buehler will leave you scraping the bottom of the barrel with your hitters, so pairing one of them with Chacin will give you much more flexibility.
One last thing to keep in mind is that on a two-game slate you don’t necessarily have to pick two starting pitchers. You would never consider rostering a reliever on a normal slate, but this isn’t a normal slate. We saw the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins both dip into their bullpens very early in last year’s Wild Card game, so it is possible that a few relievers see extended outings in today’s contest.
One guy to keep your eye on is Josh Hader. He routinely went more than just one inning during the regular season and posted a ridiculous K/9 of 15.88. If he goes two innings and piles up a bunch of strikeouts, he could be well worthy of his $4,000 salary. It will also increase your chances of having a contrarian lineup and allow you to load up on basically whichever hitters you want to roster.
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 1. Joc Pederson (L)
- 2. Justin Turner (R)
- 3. Max Muncy (L)
- 6. Yasiel Puig (R)
- 8. Kiké Hernandez (R)
Total Salary: $19,600
Most people will likely target the Brewers and Cubs from an offensive perspective, which makes the Dodgers an interesting target. They’re implied for only 4.0 runs vs. Marquez but have been the best team in the NL vs. right-handed pitchers all season. They hit four HRs against him in just 21 innings during the regular season, although that resulted in just six total runs.
What really makes the Dodgers appealing, however, is their price tags. They’ve all seen significant price decreases in anticipation of this difficult matchup.
One batter in particular who stands out is Pederson. He’s crushed right-handers over the past 12 months, resulting in a .378 wOBA and .296 ISO, and has also posted strong Statcast numbers over his past 10 games.
One other thing I’d like to note is that you don’t necessarily need to stack on today’s slate. Ownership is going to be extremely important on such a small slate, and avoiding a traditional stack should increase your chances of having a contrarian lineup. While not stacking is probably -EV in the long term, it could prove valuable today.
Other Batters
It’s impossible to look past what Christian Yelich has done recently – he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.93 over his past 10 games on DraftKings – but he could be worthy of some fade consideration. He’s on the negative side of his batting splits vs. Quintana, but, more importantly, his Statcast data suggests he’s due for some regression. He’s posted an average distance of just 214 feet over his past 11 games, which makes the fact that he’s gone yard six times over that time span feel like an anomaly.
If you’re looking for a cheaper batter with upside, consider Jonathan Schoop. He’s priced at just $3,500 on DraftKings and has posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +23 feet. One thing to keep in mind, however, is that even though he’ll have the splits advantage on Quintana, Schoop has historically performed better against right-handed pitchers than lefties.
Ryan Braun looks like the best value of the day on FanDuel, where his $3,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s destroyed left-handers over the past 12 months, owning a .371 wOBA and .281 ISO, and has posted an elite hard-hit rate of 62% over the past 15 days.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Walker Buehler
Photo credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports
