The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a seven-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
- Patrick Corbin (L) $11,100, ARI @ SF
- Gerrit Cole (R) $10,800, HOU vs. OAK
- Masahiro Tanaka (R) $10,200, NYY vs. CWS
Corbin checks nearly every box today in San Francisco. The Diamondbacks are -170 moneyline favorites with 77% of the public bets, and Corbin is in a favorable park (94 Park Factor) against a Giants team implied for only 3.5 runs. Naturally, the matchup is fantastic against a projected Giants lineup with a slate-worst 28.6% strikeout rate and bottom-three .293 wOBA against left-handed pitching.
Corbin’s largest concern is probably his recent form, allowing hard contact at an above-average rate, including a 94 mph exit velocity and 47% hard-hit rate over his past two starts. That said, his 8.4 K Prediction trails only Stephen Strasburg‘s (8.6) for the slate lead, and Corbin’s 10.62 SO/9 over the past year still inspires a ton of confidence for cash games.
Cole may actually be the lowest owned of the stud pitchers today, and he has the strikeout upside to break any slate wide open with a 12.18 SO/9 mark over the past year. The matchup is pretty rough — the projected Oakland lineup has a top-two .343 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months — but Cole still has the fourth-highest K Prediction on the slate (7.8).
The Athletics are implied for a slate-low 3.4 runs, and the Astros have top-two moneyline odds (-183), so while Oakland’s middling 24.2% strikeout rate would be a red flag for most pitchers, Cole still has value in tournaments. He’s an even better value on FanDuel, where he has an 89% Bargain Rating, and he’s dominated when he’s been at least a -180 moneyline favorite this season: Per our MLB Trends tool, he’s posted 50.88 FanDuel points per game, a +15.12 average Plus/Minus, and an 81.3% Consistency Rating in that spot.
Today’s slate is loaded at the high end of the salary scale, and Tanaka checks in as the slate’s largest favorite (-226) at home against a White Sox team implied for just 3.6 runs. Tanaka has historically been much better at home over the past two seasons, averaging a +3.7 Plus/Minus and 60.3% Consistency compared to a middling +0.4 and 48.4% on the road. As shown by his top-three 7.9 K Prediction, Tanaka has arguably the highest upside of any player today: The projected White Sox lineup has a strikeout rate (28.0%) that trails only the Giants’ mark.
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Values
With so many viable high-end pitchers today, paying down could lead to a more unique lineup construction in guaranteed prize pools. The top value option is easily Sam Gaviglio, who boasts a nice 7.1 K Prediction against the Orioles at just $7,300 and $7,000 on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively. Baltimore’s 4.5 implied run total is not ideal, but the Blue Jays are -127 moneyline favorites. There’s certainly upside: The Orioles have a comically bad .255 wOBA and 27.7% strikeout rate over the past year to right-handed pitching.
Fastballs
Stephen Strasburg: The Nats righted the ship in a big way yesterday: After failing to score a single run in three straight games, they exploded for 15 in two innings against the Mets. With the high-priced studs likely to garner significant ownership up top, consider moving down a tier to Strasburg in tournaments. His slate-worst 232-foot recent batted-ball distance is #notgood, but he does lead the slate with an 8.6 K Prediction against a Phillies team that ranks 21st in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitching this season (FanGraphs).
Noah Syndergaard: He’s overpriced relative to his strikeout upside (5.6 K Prediction) and it’s a terrible matchup against a Cubs team implied for a slate-leading 5.5 runs. That said, his recent Statcast numbers are so good that he’s a moderately intriguing option in GPPs. Over his past three starts, Syndergaard has yielded an elite batted-ball distance of 164 feet, exit velocity of 81 mph, and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 17% and 10%.
Jon Lester: The Mets-Cubs game sets up well for pitchers in general, so Lester could be a solid pivot away from Syndergaard. Normally I’d be salivating over the Mets’ top-two 28.0% strikeout rate to lefties, but there are just too many excellent options today. If that leads to low ownership for Lester, his Statcast numbers certainly merit ownership: He’s sporting an impressive 87 mph exit velocity and 15% hard-hit rate over his past two starts.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Yankees, who are tied for a slate-leading 5.5 implied runs and own the highest Team Value Rating:
- 1. Aaron Hicks (S)
- 2. Giancarlo Stanton (R)
- 3. Miguel Andujar (R)
- 4. Gleyber Torres (R)
- 6. Luke Voit (R)
Total Salary: $21,400
The Yankees are surprisingly affordable, and White Sox pitcher Carlos Rodon‘s 41% fly-ball rate is the second highest on the slate.
The usual subjects for New York haven’t been great lately, but Stanton will likely be popular due to the Yankees’ high implied total. He’s been crushing the ball, averaging a 233-foot distance and 53% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Voit is interesting in the No. 6 position, and his 96 mph exit velocity and 241-foot batted-ball distance marks lead the team.
One of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the Batted Ball Model belongs to the Blue Jays, who have the third-highest implied total (5.1) and Team Value Rating (84):
- 1. Billy McKinney (L)
- 3. Justin Smoak (S)
- 4. Kendrys Morales (S)
- 5. Randal Grichuk (R)
Total Salary: $12,800
The Blue Jays stack may be a chalky path to saving salary, facing off against Orioles righty David Hess, who owns a slate-worst 2.04 HR/9 over the past year.
McKinney has been smashing value since his call-up from the minors, averaging a +8.08 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 62.5% Consistency Rating over a limited eight-game sample. Today he is also on the right side of massive batting splits to the tune of a .543 wOBA and .44 ISO over the past year. Leading off at just $2,800, McKinney may actually be one of the top batting options in the entire slate, sporting a 252-foot average batted-ball distance, 96 mph exit velocity, and 62% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
The Cubs’ implied total of 5.5 runs is the highest mark on the slate, and two Chicago batters stand above the rest: Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist will likely be popular stacking options in the Nos. 3 and No. 4 spots, as both are on the positive side of their batting splits. Rizzo probably carries more power with a splits-adjusted .387 wOBA and .220 ISO over the past year. Zobrist has struggled lately, but players in similar lineup positions with comparable Vegas data have historically provided a +0.75 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 17% Upside Rating. Syndergaard has been dealing lately, but if looking to create high-upside unique lineups, consider adding Lester to your Cubs stacks to differentiate in tournaments.
Nolan Arenado is on the wrong side of his well-documented batting splits, but he is still one of the highest-rated batters in our models, with a massive 34.1-point ceiling projection against righty Odrisamer Despaigne. Despaigne’s 1.52 WHIP is the worst on the slate over the past 12 months, and he’s allowed a slate-high 53% hard-hit rate over his past two starts.
The Phillies are outside the top tier with a 4.2 implied run total against Strasburg, but Carlos Santana is intriguing as a potential one-off play in tournaments. Projected to bat third, Santana has quietly been swinging a hot bat — it just hasn’t translated into fantasy success recently with 5.7 DraftKings points per game over the past month. His +67 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) score indicates he could be due for a breakout, and his distance differential of +27 feet is top 10 on the entire slate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Billy McKinney
Photo credit: E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
