The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a 10-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, only two pitchers cost $10,000 or more.
- Gerrit Cole (R) $10,600, HOU @ SEA
- Corey Kluber (R) $10,400, CLE @ BOS
Paying all the way up for Cole may be a popular approach on today’s slate. The Mariners are tied for the third-lowest implied run total (3.5), and the Astros have solid -171 moneyline odds. The matchup certainly isn’t perfect — the projected Seattle lineup has a low 20.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the past 12 months — but Cole still has a slate-leading 7.5 K Prediction. The Mariners’ .329 wOBA against righties is also concerning, but Cole has historically dominated with comparable K Predictions: Per our MLB Trends tool, he’s posted 44.56 FanDuel points per game, a +7.33 average Plus/Minus, and a 70.0% Consistency Rating in that scenario over the past two seasons. Cole has solid recent Statcast data, and his 1.067 WHIP over the past year inspires reasonable confidence for cash games despite a challenging matchup.
Speaking of sub-optimal situations, it’s a brutal spot for Kluber against a projected Red Sox lineup that possesses a 19.6% strikeout rate and .346 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. Kluber’s 5.8 K Prediction is tough to pay up for, but he could come extremely low-owned in guaranteed prize pools with most users gravitating toward Cole or mid-range options today. This matchup still comes with a ton of risk attached, though: The Red Sox rank first in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitching this season, per FanGraphs.
Values
Chase Anderson looks underpriced at $6,600 and $6,700 on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. The Brewers are slate-leading -210 moneyline favorites against the Reds, and their implied run total of 3.7 is hardly intimidating. Over his past two games, Anderson’s allowed a troublesome 242-foot batted-ball distance and 48% fly-ball rate, but he sports a healthy 5.4 K Prediction and will take on a Cincinnati lineup with a bottom-three .296 wOBA over the past year against righties.
Derek Holland takes on a Mets team ranked 28th in wRC+ against lefties this season. The Giants are slight underdogs (+107), but Holland’s 6.3 K Prediction is an intriguing value opportunity on a slate with limited options at the low end.
Fastballs
Mike Fiers: With both top-end pitchers in brutal matchups, it could make sense to attack a high-upside matchup like the Rangers, whose projected lineup owns a slate-high 27.2% strikeout rate over the past year. Fiers has given up a ton of hard contact lately, yielding a slate-worst 98 mph exit velocity and 60% hard-hit rate, but Vegas expects this to be a lopsided affair with Oakland being the third-largest favorite on the slate.
Zack Wheeler: The matchup against the Giants is not ideal, as their projected lineup has a low 22.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, but Wheeler’s recent Statcast data is arguably the best on the slate, including a batted-ball distance allowed of 189 feet, exit velocity of 87 mph, and 20% hard-hit rate.
Alex Wood: He doesn’t have much strikeout upside (4.5 K Prediction), but the opposing Cardinals own a low 3.5 implied run total against the Dodgers, so he could garner some appeal from the public. That said, Wood’s price may be tough to justify, as the Cardinals rank seventh in wRC+ against lefties this season. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have historically averaged a +0.19 DraftKings Plus/Minus at an inflated 11.3% ownership rate.
Chris Archer: The Pirates are -125 moneyline favorites, and Archer benefits from a slate-leading 82 Park Factor against a Braves team implied for only 3.6 runs. It’s certainly not ideal to pay a premium for a subpar 5.9 K prediction, but opposing batters have struggled to put the ball in the air against Archer, who has a low 29% fly-ball rate over his past two starts.
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Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top DraftKings stacks in the Bales Model belongs to the Athletics, who are just outside the top tier implied for 5.0 runs:
- 1. Nick Martini (L)
- 2. Matt Chapman (R)
- 3. Jed Lowrie (S)
- 4. Khris Davis (R)
- 5. Matt Olson (L)
Total Salary: $21,600
The Athletics are relatively affordable in a prime matchup against Rangers righty Bartolo Colon (questionable), who owns a slate-worst 1.85 HR/9 mark over the past 12 months.
Projected to bat cleanup, Khris Davis has strong .380 wOBA and .308 ISO splits against righties over the past 12 months. He’s in excellent recent batted-ball form, sporting a 245-foot average distance, 95 mph exit velocity, and 55% and 47% fly-ball and hard-hit rates over the past 15 days. Historically, hitters in similar lineup spots with comparable batted-ball metrics and implied run totals have averaged a +1.64 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Chapman leads the slate with 11 DraftKings Pro Trends.
The top four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Brewers, who are tied for a slate-high 5.4 runs:
- 1. Christian Yelich (L)
- 3. Mike Moustakas (L)
- 4. Ryan Braun (R)
- 5. Travis Shaw (L)
Total Salary: $14,300
The Brewers stack may be chalky at home against Reds righty Homer Bailey, who owns a bottom-three 1.53 WHIP and enticing 1.50 HR/9 mark over the past 12 months.
Travis Shaw has crushed righties over the past year to the tune of a .356 wOBA and .248 ISO. He’s in elite recent batted-ball form, sporting a 238-foot average distance and massive 55% fly-ball rate over the past 15 days. Mike Moustakas is also doing his part to get the ball in the air with a 57% fly-ball rate, and he’s one of three players in this stack with a Bargain Rating of 90% or higher.
Other Batters
The Twins’ 5.4 implied run total is tied for the slate’s highest mark, and Joe Mauer and Eddie Rosario will likely be popular stacking options in the Nos. 1 and 2 spots, respectively, against Lucas Giolito and the White Sox. It’s a strong matchup for Twins bats against Giolito, as his 1.51 HR/9 over the past year is the third-worst mark on the slate. Mauer has been generating a ton of hard contact lately with a team-leading 95 mph exit velocity, and Rosario is due for a breakout with a +44 Recent Batted Ball Luck Score.
Curtis Granderson comes in as one of the highest-rated batters in our models with a massive 25.4-point ceiling projection against Andrew Cashner and the Orioles. Granderson has impressive recent Statcast differentials versus his year-long averages, including a distance of +24 feet, exit velocity of +5 mph, and hard-hit rate of +12 percentage points. If targeting other Toronto batters, you could do worse than Teoscar Hernandez in the No. 5 spot. He’s on an absolute tear lately with a batted-ball distance of 257 feet, exit velocity of 92 mph, and fly-ball rate of 64%.
Only Chapman has more DraftKings Pro Trends than Tommy Pham, and the Rays cleanup hitter has exploded back on the scene after returning from the disabled list (foot). In those three games, he’s sported a NSFW batted-ball distance of 284 feet, exit velocity of 99 mph, and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 50% each. The crazy thing: He hasn’t generated much fantasy success yet with a -2.36 Plus/Minus over that span. He is due for a massive breakout, and his +89 Recent Batted Ball Luck mark leads the entire slate.
The Dodgers could be a potential tournament pivot, as players in West Coast games tend to be lower owned. Matt Kemp could lead the way with a .349 wOBA and .226 ISO against left-handed pitching, and his 51% fly-ball rate leads the team over the past 15 days. Cody Bellinger in the No. 5 position is also intriguing: His +29-foot batted-ball distance differential leads the team as well over that same time period.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Travis Shaw
Photo credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
