The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a 10-game main slate at 7:10 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
On DraftKings, only two pitchers cost $10,000 or more.
- Trevor Bauer (R) $12,300, CLE vs. MIN
- Charlie Morton (R) $11,100, HOU @ SF
Paying all the way up for Bauer could be the path of least resistance. The Twins are implied for a bottom-three 3.5 runs, and the Indians check in with the largest moneyline odds on the slate (-204) and are getting 73% of the public bets. The matchup certainly isn’t perfect — the projected Twins lineup has a middling 23.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the past 12 months — but Bauer still has the third-highest K Prediction on the slate (7.3). He’s been reliable with an 80% Consistency Rating over his last 10 games (per our Trends tool), and he leads the slate with a +5.30 Plus/Minus and 11.41 SO/9 over the past year.
Morton has the benefit of pitching at AT&T Park, where he has a 93 Park Factor, but (like Bauer) he doesn’t have a matchup that’s especially exploitable. The projected Giants lineup owns a below-average .299 wOBA against righties over the past year, but its 24.2% strikeout rate hardly jumps off the page. Over his last two starts, Morton has yielded a batted-ball distance of only 192 feet, exit velocity of 88 mph and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 20% and 26%. The Astros are implied for just 4.1 runs, so Morton’s run support isn’t great, but his 7.7 K Prediction leads the slate, making him a viable option in guaranteed prize pools, especially if more people pay up for Coors Field bats instead of pitching.
Values
Luke Weaver was chalky in his last start (8/1), but he didn’t last three full innings against the Rockies. It’s another slate, however, and he has another fantastic matchup against a Marlins team that ranks 26th in wRC+ against righties this season. Weaver’s Statcast numbers are brutal, including a slate-high 95-mph exit velocity allowed over his last two starts, but the Cardinals are -149 moneyline favorites, and the Marlins are implied for a paltry 3.8 runs. He provides upside at a discount: Weaver’s 6.2 K Prediction is the slate’s fourth-highest mark, and he costs only $7,200 on DraftKings.
Nick Tropeano looks underpriced at $6,200 on DraftKings with a 78% Bargain Rating. He faces a projected Tigers lineup that has a bottom-four .297 wOBA over the past year. Implied for only 3.7 runs today, Detroit is also dead last in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Over his last two games, he’s allowed a slate-worst exit velocity of 95-mph and a hard-hit rate of 52%, but at least Tropeano sports a healthy 6.0 K Prediction.
Fastballs
Zack Godley: On a thin pitching slate, his 7.7 K Prediction is tied for first. Godley enters Monday in elite recent form, holding opposing teams to a recent batted-ball distance of 174 feet and fly-ball rate of only 18%.
Noah Syndergaard: The matchup against the Reds is not ideal, as their projected lineup has a low 22.7% strikeout rate and excellent .330 wOBA against right-handed pitching, but Syndergaard’s recent Statcast data is arguably the best on the slate, and Vegas prefers the Mets, who are sizable -159 favorites against the Reds, whose 3.3-run implied total is the slate’s lowest mark.
Cole Hamels: He doesn’t have much strikeout upside (5.6 K Prediction), but the opposing Royals own a slate-worst .285 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. The Cubs are also the second-largest favorite on in the slate (-190), but Hamels’ price may be tough to justify in cash games. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have historically averaged a +0.19 DraftKings Plus/Minus at an inflated 19.5% ownership rate.
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Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top DraftKings stacks in the Batted Ball Model belongs to the Rangers, who are just outside the top tier with an implied total of 5.4 runs.
- 1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
- 2. Rougned Odor (L)
- 3. Elvis Andrus (R)
- 4. Adrian Beltre (R)
- 6. Robinson Chirinos (R)
The Rangers will take on Mariners lefty Wade LeBlanc, who allowed three home runs and seven earned runs in his last start. The Texas lineup has crushed left-handed pitching with a .323 wOBA over the past 12 months, and LeBlanc has a bottom-four 1.58 HR/9 over that same time.
Only Choo has a recent batted-ball distance under 224 feet in the stack, and Beltre could be due for progression with a top-three +72 Recent Batted Ball Luck. Chirinos is on the positive side of his elite batting splits, sporting a .442 wOBA and .302 ISO against lefties over the past year.
In the same game, one of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the Bales Model belongs to the Mariners, who are implied for a top-two 5.7 runs with a slate-high 97 Team Value Rating.
- 1. Dee Gordon (L)
- 2. Jean Segura (R)
- 4. Nelson Cruz (R)
- 5. Kyle Seager (L)
Seattle will square off against Texas lefty Martin Perez, who owns a bottom-three 1.60 WHIP and slate-low 5.56 SO/9 over the past 12 months. Cruz has an impressive .407 wOBA and .346 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months. He’s in excellent recent batted-ball form, sporting a 226-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 45% hard-hit rate. Historically, hitters with similar lineup spots, batted-ball metrics and implied run totals have averaged a +1.56 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Other Batters
With the Rockies and Pirates squaring off at Coors Field, both teams will likely be popular. Of the two, the Pirates might be the preferred target for GPPs, as their lower implied team total (4.9) could make them the lower-owned team. Plus, they experienced positive reverse line movement this morning. Adam Frazier and Gregory Polanco could be worth considering, given their fantastic recent Statcast data. Batting leadoff, Frazier in particular stands out as one of the top options on the slate, with 15-day/12-month differentials of +50 feet, +3 mph and +24 percentage points. He offers good value on FanDuel with his 82% Bargain Rating.
On the other side of this Coors Field game, Charlie Blackmon is firmly in play for the Rockies. He trails only Jose Ramirez (31.6) with his 30.1-point DraftKings ceiling projection. Nolan Arenado is a tougher sell, as he is on the wrong side of his well-documented batting splits with -0.221 wOBA and -.236 ISO Differentials over the past year against right-handed pitching.
The Cubs’ implied total of 5.3 runs is the fifth-highest mark on the slate, so Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist will likely be popular stacking options at the top of the order. Both are on the right side of their batting splits, but Rizzo probably carries more power with a .396 wOBA and .225 ISO against righties over the past year. Zobrist’s 10 DraftKings Pro Trends are tied for the slate lead. There’s definitely immense upside in targeting batters against Hamels, who owns a 1.66 HR/9 mark over the past year.
The Angels are well below the top tier of implied totals at just 4.4 runs, but Detroit’s Matt Boyd has a slate-worst 44% fly-ball rate over his last two starts. That bodes well for Mike Trout (questionable) as well as Kole Calhoun, who has been crushing lately with an average distance of 263 feet, exit velocity of 97 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 53%, numbers that smash his 12-month averages with differentials of +45 feet, +5 mph and +16 percentage points. Hitters with comparable implied totals, lineup spots and batted-ball metrics have historically averaged a +1.73 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 19 Upside Rating.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Adrian Beltre (29) and Rougned Odor (12)
Photo credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
