The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a 13-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Note: There are quite a few games with possible rain in the forecast, so be sure to monitor the status of those within our Lineups page.
Pitchers
Studs
We have a nice pitching slate on tap with three pitchers on FanDuel that cost $11,000 or more:
- Jacob deGrom (R) $11,500, NYM vs. SD — J. Lucchesi (L)
- Luis Severino (R) $11,400, NYY @ TB — H. Wood (R)
- Corey Kluber (R) $11,000, CLE vs. PIT — T. Williams (R)
With the Yankees-Mets game getting postponed on Sunday, deGrom will start against the Padres tonight in a more fantasy-friendly matchup. The projected Padres lineup has struggled against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, evidenced by their 27% strikeout rate and weak .287 weighted on-base average (wOBA). Additionally, they rank just 29th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties this season (FanGraphs). deGrom is sporting very favorable Vegas data, as the Mets check in with -177 moneyline odds and the Padres own the second-lowest opponent implied run total on the slate (3.0). Since 2014, deGrom has crushed as a favorite, averaging 42.28 FanDuel points per game (PPG) with a +7.51 Plus/Minus and 69.3% Consistency (per our Trends tool).
Severino costs $100 less than deGrom on FanDuel, but he’s $1,000 more on DraftKings, where Severino possesses a 5% Bargain Rating. It’s an average matchup on paper, as the Rays rank 11th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season, and their projected lineup owns a low splits-adjusted 22.8% strikeout rate over the past year. However, the Rays have the slate’s lowest implied run total (2.9), and the Yankees’ -250 moneyline odds are the second highest on the slate. If there is a cause for concern with Severino, it’s that he’s been in average form over the past month, averaging a +3.98 Plus/Minus with just 50% Consistency. Further, in his last start he allowed an abundance of hard contact, evidenced by a 249-foot average batted-ball distance, 94 mph exit velocity, and 55% hard-hit rate.
Kluber has been in awful form over the past month, averaging a -5.40 Plus/Minus with 38% Consistency. That said, Kluber and the Indians own the slate’s highest moneyline odds (-280) and the Pirates are implied for a paltry 3.1 runs. While the Vegas data is encouraging, Kluber’s upside may be limited considering the projected Pirates lineup hasn’t struck out often over the past 12 months against right-handed pitchers (21.1%). They’ve been an excellent contact-generating team, ranking second in medium contact (FanGraphs) this season. Still, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions (6.8), and Vegas data have been serviceable, averaging a +3.74 Plus/Minus with 59.3% Consistency.
Values
If you’re looking for a punt option on FanDuel, Jaime Barria costs just $5,900 with a 98% Bargain Rating. Barria isn’t the safest play with his 5.2 K Prediction and 47% Consistency Rating. However, it’s an intriguing matchup against the White Sox, who rank 21st in wRC+ against righties this season; they’re sporting a mediocre 3.7 implied run total. The Angels are one of just three teams with moneyline odds of at least -200 on Monday. The main issue with Barria is his lack of consistency: He’s thrown for at least six innings in just four of his starts this season.
Ross Stripling is more of a value on FanDuel, where he’s sporting a 75% Bargain Rating. Stripling has been amazing this season, averaging a +11.26 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 82% Consistency. His 7.7 K Prediction is the fourth-highest mark on the slate against a splits-adjusted strikeout-happy (28.3%) projected Phillies lineup over the past 12 months. He’s an excellent alternative to the top-priced options considering he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in all but three starts this season. His 2.08 ERA is the sixth-best mark in the majors this season (min. 50 innings pitched).
Fastballs
Patrick Corbin: He boasts the slate’s highest K Prediction (8.6) against a projected Cubs lineup that possesses a slate-high 30.8% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers over the past year. On the flip side, they rank sixth in wRC+ against lefties this season, and the Diamondbacks are slight underdogs (+102 moneyline odds); the Cubs have a 4.6 implied run total. Corbin is better reserved for tournament lineups.
Rick Porcello: He has an inviting matchup against the Orioles. Their projected lineup owns a high 27.1% strikeout rate and an atrocious .287 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. While the Red Sox check in with -164 moneyline odds, there are some concerns about Porcello’s recent form. Over his past two starts, he’s allowed a +43-foot distance differential, which has historically yielded a -1.89 FanDuel Plus/Minus for pitchers with comparable batted-ball differentials.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Texas Rangers:
- Shin-Soo Choo (L)
- Delino DeShields (R)
- Elvis Andrus (R)
- Adrian Beltre (R)
- Rougned Odor (L)
The Rangers own an excellent 5.4 implied run total and have the fourth-best Team Value Rating (75) on DraftKings. It’s an intriguing spot for the Rangers as Brett Anderson owns an awful 6.08 ERA this season. Overall, this stack should benefit from the Weather Rating of 84; it’s expected to be 97 degrees at game time. Historically, hitters featured in games with comparable implied run totals and Weather Ratings have averaged a +1.43 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
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The top four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Cleveland Indians:
- Francisco Lindor (S)
- Michael Brantley (L)
- Jose Ramirez (S)
- Yonder Alonso (L)
The Indians are tied with the Rangers for a slate-high 5.4 implied runs, but since this stack is expensive, they don’t offer the value that some of the other teams do: Their 76 Team Value Rating on FanDuel ranks ninth in tonight’s slate.
It’s a great matchup for all of these stacked Indians against a right-handed pitcher. Lindor and Ramirez have shown exceptional power against righties over the past year with their .277 and .323 respective ISOs. Each hitter also has a wOBA of .351 or better, with Ramirez leading the stack with a .421 wOBA. Lindor and Ramirez are in excellent batted-ball form, each sporting an average batted-ball distance that exceeds 229 feet, along with 93 to 94 mph exit velocities and hard-hit rates over 50%. Each mark represents differentials that exceed their 12-month averages.
Other Batters
Heading back to Arlington, Texas: The A’s are an appealing option in the weather-friendly hitting environment. Their 5.2 implied run total is the third-best mark on the slate, falling just slightly behind the Indians, Angels, and Rangers (5.4). Oakland’s Team Value Rating represents a top-six mark on both sites. Khris Davis is sporting a solid .331 wOBA and .239 ISO against lefties over the past year, and he possesses absurd batted-ball data over the past 15 days with his 263-foot average distance, 96 mph exit velocity, and 55% hard-hit rate. His +29-foot distance differential is among the highest on the slate, and his +28 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) Score suggest he’s been unlucky of late. Davis could be headed for progression tonight with the scorching heat in Texas.
Mike Trout has an excellent matchup against Lucas Giolito. Trout has obliterated right-handed pitchers over the 12 months, owning an elite .447 wOBA and .306 ISO. Further, he’s generating tons of hard contact over the past 15 days with a ridiculous 97 mph exit velocity and 54% hard-hit rate. Hitters with comparable batted-ball data featured in games with similar implied run totals (5.4) have averaged a +1.82 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Trout currently leads all outfielders with a 42.6-point projected ceiling on FanDuel.
Teoscar Hernandez and Curtis Granderson may go overlooked on a slate with so many teams implied for five-plus runs. The Blue Jays are one of those teams sitting with a 5.1 implied run total. Hernandez and Granderson are potential progression candidates, as they possess RBBL Scores of +57 and +54 on FanDuel, respectively. Hernandez boasts a 245-foot average distance and 94 mph exit velocity over his past eight games. Granderson is in a similar boat with a 237-foot average distance and 92 mph exit velocity. Hitters with comparable RBBL Scores and batted-ball data have historically averaged a +2.36 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 50.9% Consistency. They’re both tremendous values on FanDuel with Bargain Ratings of 70% or higher.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Khris Davis
Photo credit: Kiel Maddox-USA TODAY Sports
