The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 13-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers command a salary of at least $10,000 on FanDuel:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $11,400, HOU @ BAL
- Patrick Corbin (L) $10,600, ARI @ SD
- Hyun-jin Ryu (L) $10,000, LAD @ SF
Yesterday’s game between the Astros and Orioles was rained out, so Cole’s final start of the regular season was pushed back to today. The gap between him and the rest of today’s pitchers isn’t nearly as severe as it was yesterday, which is a big part of the reason why he’s projected for just 5-8% ownership on FanDuel. With the Astros’ playoff position already locked up, it’s definitely possible that they look to take it easy on him and limit his pitch count.
That said, he’s in a fantastic spot if he isn’t limited. The Orioles’ projected lineup has posted a .300 wOBA and 24.4% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months; they’re implied for just 3.2 runs. Cole is also the largest favorite of the day at -265, while his K Prediction of 7.9 ranks third. He could definitely be worth the risk on FanDuel, where his salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.
The Diamondbacks will ultimately come up short in their quest for the playoffs, but Corbin deserves none of the blame. He’s pitched to a 3.23 ERA and 11.17 K/9, and his FIP of 2.47 suggests he’s been even better than his traditional numbers indicate. He’s been particularly impressive from a Statcast perspective recently, owning a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -16 feet.
He’ll be in a great position to improve those numbers in an elite matchup vs. the San Diego Padres. Their projected lineup has been terrible against left-handers over the past 12 months, struggling to a .288 wOBA and 26.6% strikeout rate. As a result, Corbin’s opponent implied team total of 3.2 runs and K Prediction of 8.2 both rank second on the slate.
Ryu rounds out the stud tier and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.85 on FanDuel over his past 10 starts. He has arguably the best matchup of the day vs. the San Francisco Giants: Their projected lineup owns a dismal .249 wOBA and 30.8% strikeout rate against southpaws over the past 12 months, and their implied team total of 3.0 runs is the lowest mark on the slate. Ryu owns a K Prediction of 8.9, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and opponent implied team totals have averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.62 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
He also benefits from facing the Giants in San Francisco, giving him a Park Factor of 93. The Dodgers are still fighting for the NL West crown and aren’t yet guaranteed a spot in the Wild Card game, so expect Ryu to be fully motivated.
Values
Zach Davies is winless in four starts since coming off the disabled list and will try to rebound vs. the Detroit Tigers. They’ve posted an abysmal 33.6% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, which gives Davies more strikeout upside than usual. He also owns solid Vegas data given his opponent implied team total of 3.3 runs and moneyline odds of -233.
The big concern with Davies is just how deep he’ll be able to pitch in this game. He’s yet to pitch beyond the fifth inning since coming off the disabled list and has averaged just 77 pitches over his past two starts. Still, he’s impossible to ignore at just $5,600 on DraftKings: Pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.14 and Consistency Rating of 84.0%.
Tyler Glasnow is almost always a viable fantasy option given his 12-month K/9 of 10.56, and his current matchup vs. the Blue Jays is a decent one. Their projected lineup has been solid against right-handers over the past 12 months, but Glasnow is still getting a lot of respect from Vegas: 3.3 opponent implied team total, -166 moneyline odds.
He also enters today’s contest in good recent form, owning a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -12 feet. He looks like one of the best values of the day on FanDuel, where his $6,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Fastballs
Mike Clevinger: He has a nice matchup vs. the Royals, whose projected lineup has posted a splits-adjusted strikeout rate of 27.1% over the past 12 months. He also owns a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -24 feet, but the Indians could choose to limit him with their playoff position already locked up.
Mike Foltynewicz: He’s scheduled to start Game 1 of the NLDS for the Braves, so he’s yet another pitcher who could be looking for a final tune up today. That said, he does have upside if he isn’t limited, evidenced by a K Prediction of 7.4.
Jose Urena: He’s posted some impressive Statcast marks recently, limiting his past two opponents to an average distance of 187 feet, exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 32%. He has a decent matchup vs. the New York Mets, whose projected lineup has posted a .290 wOBA and 27.3% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Oakland A’s:
- 1. Nick Martini (L)
- 2. Matt Chapman (R)
- 3. Jed Lowrie (S)
- 4. Khris Davis (R)
- 5. Matt Olson (L)
Total Salary: $21,600
The Athletics’ implied team total of 4.9 runs is tied for fourth on the slate, but they’re still expected to be a contrarian option on DraftKings: None of the stacked batters is projected for greater than 2-4% ownership. They’re facing Angels right-hander Jaime Barria, and all five of the above batters have performed better against right-handed pitchers than lefties over the past 12 months.
Leadoff hitter Martini looks like a particularly good value at $3,700. He’s posted a .368 wOBA vs. right-handers over the past 12 months and owns a solid hard-hit rate of 44% over the past 15 days.
Coors Field is also available on today’s slate, and the top four-man FanDuel stack involving Coors belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- 1. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 3. David Dahl (L)
- 4. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 5. Trevor Story (R)
Total Salary: $17,800
The Rockies unsurprisingly lead the slate with an implied team total of 6.1 runs and are currently nursing a slim one-game lead over the Dodgers in the NL West standings. They will almost certainly send out their top lineup against Nationals right-hander Joe Ross, which could spell good things for them: He’s pitched just 11.0 innings at the MLB level this season but owns a disastrous 6.23 xFIP.
Dahl looks like an excellent value on FanDuel at $4,300 given his Bargain Rating of 90%. He’s also destroyed right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, posting a .405 wOBA and .299 ISO.
Other Batters
Kole Calhoun is extremely affordable across the industry and is expected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Los Angeles Angels. Their implied team total of 4.2 runs is mediocre, but Calhoun will be on the positive side of his batting splits against Oakland right-hander Mike Fiers. He’s also hit the ball well recently, posting an average distance of 227 feet and exit velocity of 94 mph over his past 12 games.
Luke Voit has been a massive addition for the Yankees, and he’ll have a chance to build on his success today vs. Red Sox left-hander Brian Johnson. He’s posted a .388 wOBA and .295 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months, and his Statcast data from his past 12 games is elite: 259-foot distance, 98 mph exit velocity, 52% hard-hit rate. He’s expected to bat third for a Yankees team implied for 4.8 runs.
Tommy Pham looks like one of the best values of the day on FanDuel, where his $3,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’ll be on the positive side of his splits against Blue Jays left-hander Thomas Pannone and has posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +16 feet. He offers a lot of upside for GPPs at projected ownership of just 2-4%.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with ourindustry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Hyun-Jin Ryu
Photo credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
