The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 14-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate features a wide variety of stud pitchers, with five owning a salary of at least $10,300 on DraftKings:
- Jacob deGrom (R) $12,400, NYM @ WAS
- Gerrit Cole (R) $12,000, HOU vs. LAA
- Chris Sale (L) $10,800, BOS @ CLE
- German Marquez (R) $10,500, COL @ ARI
- Trevor Bauer (R) $10,300, CLE vs. BOS
Sale and Bauer will square off in a potential playoff preview in Cleveland, but it’s hard to roster either on today’s slate. Sale continues to be eased in slowly after coming off the disabled list and has pitched just four total innings over his past two starts. He will likely be limited in some capacity again today, and the Indians’ projected lineup has posted a .343 wOBA against left-handers over the past 12 months. Even if he does get to five innings on today’s start, there’s just way too much risk involved at his current price tag. Bauer will be making his first start since injuring his leg on August 11, so he’s also expected to be limited to “a couple of innings,” per Terry Francona.
deGrom is the highest-priced option on DraftKings and continues to dominate every time he toes the rubber. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +13.00 over his past 10 starts on FanDuel and recorded 12 strikeouts against a potent Red Sox offense in his most recent outing. He’s now gone 27 straight starts allowing three earned runs or fewer and has all but locked up the NL Cy Young award.
That said, there are some concerns with deGrom vs. the Washington Nationals. Their projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of just 17.9% against right-handers over the past 12 months, giving deGrom a lower K Prediction than usual at just 7.3. Further, the Nats are implied for 3.7 runs, and deGrom has posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +28 feet. Paying up for deGrom has been a smart strategy for virtually the entire season, but he does carry some risk on today’s slate.
Cole might be the more appealing option given his matchup vs. the Los Angeles Angels. Their projected lineup has a splits-adjusted wOBA of .293 and strikeout rate of 24.2% over the past 12 months, giving Cole stronger marks in each of the three key pitching categories: 3.2 opponent implied team total, -225 moneyline odds and 8.4 K Prediction. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks all three categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.34 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
The highest-scoring pitcher over the past month among today’s pitchers has actually been Marquez. He’s coming off a disappointing start vs. the San Francisco Giants but has still managed to post an average Plus/Minus of +11.62 on DraftKings over his past 10 starts.
He’ll have a chance to build on those numbers today vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks. Their projected lineup has posted a 25.6% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, which is the fourth-highest splits-adjusted mark on the slate. His salary has also decreased by $1,500 on DraftKings after peaking at $12,000 in his last start, so this could be a bit of a buy-low opportunity as well.
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Values
Rich Hill was slated to take the mound for the Dodgers, but Ross Stripling will take take the mound instead. He’ll benefit from one of the best matchups on the slate vs. the San Diego Padres, who are implied for just 3.0 runs. Stripling is also a massive -258 favorite, while his K Prediction of 8.5 ranks first on the slate.
The big question with Stripling is just how deep he’ll be able to pitch into the game. He’s made two starts in the past 15 days but has failed to make it out of the fourth inning in each of them. He’s definitely tempting for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at just $7,300 on DraftKings, but he’s difficult to trust for cash games.
Luis Castillo entered this season with a lot of promise but has largely been a disappointment. He’s pitched to a 4.52 ERA and 10-12 record, but his xFIP of 3.72 suggests he’s been better than his traditional metrics indicate.
He’s started to turn things around recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.81 over his past 10 starts on DraftKings. His Statcast data from his past three starts is also encouraging, particularly his average distance of 196 feet and groundball rate of 54%. He has a strong matchup today vs. the Miami Marlins, who have posted a .288 wOBA and 25.2% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. They’re implied for 3.5 runs on today’s slate, which makes Castillo an intriguing option.
Fastballs
CC Sabathia: He’s the largest favorite on today’s slate given his -285 moneyline odds and has an outstanding matchup vs. the Baltimore Orioles. They’re implied for just 3.3 runs, which is tied for the third-worst mark among today’s offenses.
Wei-Yin Chen: He’s pitching in Miami, which puts him on the positive side of some of the most bizarre home/road splits in all of baseball. He’s looked like the best pitcher in the league at home this season, owning a 1.77 ERA, but that number has ballooned to 9.29 when pitching on the road.
John Gant: He has arguably the best matchup on the slate vs. the San Francisco Giants, who have scored more than four runs just once in their past 14 games. Their projected lineup has been abysmal against right-handers over the past 12 months, owning a .256 wOBA and 26.1% strikeout rate.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Texas Rangers:
- 1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
- 2. Rougned Odor (L)
- 3. Elvis Andrus (R)
- 4. Adrian Beltre (R)
- 7. Joey Gallo (L) – questionable
Total Salary: $21,400
The Rangers’ implied team total of 5.1 runs is significantly lower than the Yankees’ slate-best mark of 5.8 runs but still ranks third on the slate. They’re taking on Mariners right-hander Erasmo Ramirez, who has pitched to a dismal HR/9 of 2.25 over the past 12 months. That number has increased to 2.72 through 43.0 innings in 2018, and the Rangers have compiled a .334 wOBA and .177 ISO against right-handers when playing at home.
The big concern with this game is the weather. The current forecast calls for a 68% chance of precipitation at game time, so there is some real postponement risk here. That said, that could also work to reduce the Rangers’ ownership in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
The Rangers also own the top stack on FanDuel, so let’s focus on the Detroit Tigers instead:
- 1. Jeimer Candelario (S)
- 2. Christin Stewart (L)
- 3. Nick Castellanos (R)
- 4. Victor Martinez (S)
Total Salary: $11,600
The Tigers exploded for 11 runs last night and appear to be in another solid spot. They’re implied for 4.7 runs vs. Royals right-hander Ian Kennedy, and their Team Value Rating of 88 on FanDuel is the top mark on the slate. Kennedy has pitched to a 1.41 WHIP and 1.62 HR/9 over the past 12 months, and he’s underperformed his 12-month average distance over his past two starts.
One batter who stands out for the Tigers is Victor Martinez, who is priced at just $2,200. The 39-year-old veteran has absolutely smoked the baseball over the past 15 days, owning an average exit velocity of 97 mph and hard-hit rate of 64%.
Other Batters
Andrew McCutchen continues to produce as the Yankees’ leadoff hitter, averaging a Plus/Minus of +3.11 over his past 10 starts on DraftKings. His Statcast data over his past 15 days is absolutely elite – 255-foot average distance, 96 mph exit velocity and 41% hard-hit rate – and the Yankees’ implied team total of 5.9 runs ranks first on the slate by a significant margin. He remains fairly priced on DraftKings at $4,300.
Travis Shaw will be on the positive side of his batting splits today against Pirates right-hander Ivan Nova. He’s posted a .377 wOBA and .275 ISO against traditional pitchers over the past 12 months, and Nova has pitched to a significantly higher wOBA against left-handed batters in 2018. Shaw also enters today’s contest in outstanding form, owning a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +55 feet and hard-hit differential of +27 percentage points. That hasn’t exactly translated into elite fantasy numbers, but his Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +70 suggests he’s due for positive regression.
Brian Dozier is expected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Dodgers vs. Padres left-hander Eric Lauer, who has been absolutely rocked over his past two starts. He’s allowed batters to compile a mind-boggling hard-hit rate of 73%, which represents an increase of +32 percentage points compared to his 12-month average. The Dodgers could fly a bit under the radar in this matchup – only Manny Machado is projected for greater than 2-4% ownership on DraftKings – but they have as much offensive upside as any team on today’s slate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Gerrit Cole
Photo credit: Erik Williams- USA Today Sports
