The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a four-game slate starting at 2:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
All eight playoff teams are in action today, so there are plenty of pitching options. Four stand out above the rest on DraftKings:
- Justin Verlander (R) $10,000, HOU vs. CLE
- Chris Sale (L) $9,600, BOS vs. NYY
- Corey Kluber (R) $8,600, CLE @ HOU
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $8,000, LAD vs. ATL
The first thing that jumps off the page is just how cheap the stud options are on DraftKings. These guys would normally be priced in the $11,000-$12,000 range, so getting them all for $10,000 or less feels like a steal. Every single starter on today’s slate owns a Bargain Rating of at least 84%, and all but Sale own a Bargain Rating of at least 94% among the stud tier.
Verlander is squaring off against Kluber in a battle of former Cy Young winners, and the Vegas data gives the advantage to the Astros. Verlander owns an opponent implied team total of just 2.9 runs and is a -151 favorite; pitchers with comparable numbers in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.60 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool). He also has the edge in strikeout upside: His K Prediction of 7.0 ranks second on the slate.
Verlander also enters this contest in elite recent form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 189 feet, exit velocity of 85 mph, and hard-hit rate of 22%, all three of which represent significant decreases compared to his 12-month averages. Add it all up, and he looks like the top pitching option on the slate.
Kluber’s recent Statcast data is comparable to Verlander’s – he owns a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -27 feet – which could make him an intriguing option for guaranteed prize pools. He’s projected for just 17-20% ownership on DraftKings, which is the lowest mark among the stud pitchers by a significant margin.
Sale has been limited in all four of his starts since returning from the disabled list on Sep. 11 but appears to be all systems go for Game 1 vs. the Yankees. It’s a difficult matchup – the Yankees’ projected lineup has posted a .360 wOBA against southpaws over the past 12 months – but Sale isn’t your average left-handed pitcher. He dominated the Yankees over two starts this season, pitching to a 0.69 ERA while recording 19 strikeouts over 13 innings.
He’s been arguably the best strikeout pitcher in baseball over the past 12 months, owning a ridiculous K/9 of 13.50. The Yankees have a propensity for striking out in bunches when they’re not hitting the ball over the fence, so Sale has immense strikeout upside in this contest. His Vegas data is also impressive, owning a 3.3 opponent implied team total and -172 moneyline odds.
Kershaw rounds out the stud tier, and he leads all pitchers on the slate in both opponent implied team total (2.8 runs) and moneyline odds (-225). The Braves’ projected lineup has posted a .311 wOBA against left-handers over the past 12 months, which is the worst splits-adjusted mark among today’s eight offenses. They struggled mightily against left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu in yesterday’s contest, recording just four hits and zero earned runs over seven innings.
That said, there is some reason for pessimism for Kershaw in this matchup. He’s seen a major decline in his strikeout production over the second half of the season, recording a K/9 of just 8.09 after the All-Star break. He’s also been hit harder than usual over his past two contests, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +26 feet. That combination of reduced strikeout upside and poor batted-ball numbers is definitely a bit concerning.
Finally, it’s worth mentioning his past playoff struggles. He has a career ERA of just 2.39, but that number jumps to 4.35 when pitching in the postseason. It’s likely just a case of small sample size – he’s pitched just 122.0 innings, which is less than he’d accumulate during one regular season – but it’s still something worth considering.
Values
Jhoulys Chacin will take the mound for the Brewers, who are looking to take a 2-0 series lead vs. the Colorado Rockies. He’s pitching on short rest, which could result in a slightly reduced workload, but the matchup is enticing. The Rockies have been futile against right-handed pitchers away from home this season, owning the worst wOBA in baseball. He owns a 3.6 opponent implied team total and -159 moneyline odds at just $5,200 on DraftKings.
Anibal Sanchez had a bit of a revival with the Braves in 2018, pitching to a 2.83 ERA and 8.89 K/9. He has a brutal matchup today vs. the Dodgers, who have been the best offensive team in the National League against right-handed pitchers, but his recent Statcast form could make him an intriguing contrarian option for GPPs. He’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -31 feet, and pitchers with comparable distance differentials and salaries boast an Upside Rating of 15%.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
- 1. Mookie Betts (R)
- 2. Andrew Benintendi (L)
- 3. J.D. Martinez (R)
- 4. Xander Bogaerts (R)
- 5. Steve Pearce (R)
Total Salary: $24,800
The Red Sox are implied for 4.3 runs vs. Yankees left-hander J.A. Happ, which is the second-highest mark on the slate. Boston has been strong against southpaws at Fenway Park this season, ranking eighth in wOBA and fifth in ISO. They were able to score four runs off Happ in six innings in their last meeting, so they have shown an ability to get hits against the Yankees’ starter in the past.
Betts is the highest-priced batter on DraftKings, and it’s impossible not to like him in this contest. He has absolutely feasted on left-handed pitching in Fenway, owning a .578 wOBA and .536 ISO in 2018. He also enters this contest in good recent form after posting a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +23 feet.
Each of the top four-batters in this stack is expensive, which makes Pearce a nice source of savings at just $3,900. He’s on the positive side of his batting splits, owning a .400 wOBA and .250 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months, and he posted a wRC+ of 158 against left-handers in 2018.
Other Batters
Joc Pederson went yard last night for the Dodgers and appears to be in another good spot today. He’s destroyed right-handed pitching over the past 12 months, owning a .375 wOBA and .293 ISO, and his Statcast data from his past eight contests is elite: 266-foot distance, 96 mph exit velocity, 53% hard-hit rate. He should occupy the leadoff spot once again, and the Dodgers’ implied team total of 4.3 runs is tied with the Red Sox’s for second on the slate.
The Braves will likely be the lowest-owned team on the slate, so including one of their batters could be a nice way to differentiate your lineup. One hitter worthy of consideration is Johan Camargo, who is expected to bat second against Kershaw. He’s a switch-hitter, but his numbers this season have been much more impressive against left-handed pitchers. He’s also posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +30 feet and hard-hit differential of +10 percentage points.
The Brewers might be the top team target on FanDuel: They lead the slate with an implied team total of 4.5 runs, and four of their top-five hitters own a Bargain Rating of at least 90%. Ryan Braun leads the way with a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s posted an unreal hard-hit rate of 73% over his past eight contests. He’ll also be on the positive side of his batting splits against Rockies left-hander Tyler Anderson, who has pitched to a 6.06 ERA over the second half of the season.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Justin Verlander
Photo credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
