The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 15-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are four pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
- Corey Kluber (R) $11,500, CLE vs. TB
- Luis Severino (R) $10,600, NYY vs. DET
- Zack Greinke (R) $10,200, ARI @ LAD
- Zack Wheeler (R) $10,000, NYY vs. CWS
Kluber is in a reasonable matchup against a projected Rays lineup with a 26.1% strikeout rate over the past 12 months against righties, but it’s notable that they are ninth in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) for that same time frame (FanGraphs). On the positive side, the Indians are -208 moneyline favorites, and Kluber is one of the few high-priced pitchers who is actually a better value on DraftKings with an 84% Bargain Rating.
Another concern is that Kluber’s 7.0 K Prediction is on the low end for him. Historically, he has struggled in games he is predicted for limited strikeouts: Per our MLB Trends tool, he’s posted 15.92 DraftKings points per game, a -3.69 average Plus/Minus, and a 38.9% Consistency Rating in that scenario over the past four seasons.
The Tigers are dead last in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, so Severino will likely be extremely popular with a slate-high 7.2 K Prediction. As usual, Vegas leans heavily toward the Yankees as -350 moneyline favorites, and the Tigers are also implied for a slate-low 2.7 runs.
Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data have smashed, providing a +11.79 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 84.0% Consistency Rating. Severino inspires a ton of confidence in all formats today with the highest ceiling projection on the slate.
The matchup against the Dodgers is pretty terrifying, but Greinke will probably be the pitcher in this tier with the lowest ownership. Also, despite the Dodgers projected lineup possessing a slate-leading .345 wOBA to righties over the past year, Greinke’s 7.0 K Prediction is still top three on the slate. Rolling him out certainly doesn’t come without risk — Vegas has Arizona as +115 underdogs — but there could be upside here for guaranteed prize pools.
Wheeler could benefit in a favorable pitching environment at AT&T Park (76 Park Factor), where he faces a Giants team implied for only 3.7 runs. It’s not ideal to pay all the way up for a pitcher with a middling 6.6 K Prediction, but Wheeler’s recent Statcast data is arguably better than any player’s on the slate, including a batted-ball distance allowed of 177 feet, exit velocity of 88 mph, and hard-hit rate of 27%.
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Values
The only player who has better recent Statcast numbers than Wheeler is Framber Valdez. The Astros lefty has yielded a low 149-foot batted ball distance, 86 mph exit velocity, and 16% and 20% fly-ball and hard-hit rates over his last two starts. With a nice price of only $6,900 on DraftKings, Valdez doesn’t carry a ton of upside, but he could certainly hit value against an Angels team with a bottom-three .289 wOBA against lefties over the past year.
Antonio Senzatela is one of the best value options on the slate, facing a projected Padres lineup with a slate-high 28.0% strikeout rate and bottom-two .284 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. In the betting markets, 82% of the public is already on the Rockies in this one, so Senzatela’s $5,600 price tag on DraftKings looks very low. His 6.3 K Prediction trails only the marks of the four $10k-plus pitchers on both sites.
Fastballs
Andrew Suarez: The Giants are -124 moneyline favorites against Wheeler and the Mets, but Suarez could still provide some decent tournament leverage at a discount. His 6.3 K Prediction is just outside the top tier; he’s only $7,200 on FanDuel. Similarly-priced pitchers with comparable Vegas numbers and K Predictions have been fantastic tournament plays, providing a +2.87 FanDuel Plus/Minus at only 5.3% average ownership.
Nathan Eovaldi: It’s a fantastic slate to take advantage of price discrepancies, and Eovaldi is another example of that with a 91% Bargain Rating on FanDuel as a -151 favorite against the White Sox. His 6.3 K Prediction is certainly worth having exposure to in tournaments, as attacking this projected White Sox lineup could provide upside with their top-two 27.6% strikeout rate to righties over the past year.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the Batted Ball Model belongs to the Rangers, who own a slate-leading 5.9 implied run total and the highest Team Value Rating:
- 1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
- 2. Rougned Odor (L)
- 3. Elvis Andrus (R)
- 4. Nomar Mazara (L)
- 5. Adrian Beltre (R)
Total Salary: $20,400
The pitching in this game is pretty terrible, and it starts with Stephen Gonsalves in Minnesota. His 3.12 WHIP is by far the worst on the slate, and he has been prone to giving up the long ball with the fifth-highest HR/9 over the past year (1.48).
It’s a prime get-right spot for the Rangers, as the usual suspects have not hit well lately, but someone like Beltre has at least been doing his part to get the ball in the air with a 50% fly-ball rate. Odor is probably the guy with the highest ceiling: Over the past 15 days, he has been generating a ton of hard contact, including a 96 mph exit velocity and 66% hard-hit rate.
On the other side of this game, one of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Twins, who have the third-highest implied total (5.3) and a slate-leading Team Value Rating (91):
- 1. Joe Mauer (L)
- 2. Logan Forsythe (R)
- 4. Miguel Sano (R)
- 5. Max Kepler (L)
Total Salary: $10,900
The Twins stack may be a chalky path to saving salary. They’re facing off against Rangers righty Drew Hutchison, whose 1.96 HR/9 over the past year is second highest on the slate.
The player most likely to take Hutchinson deep is probably Sano. He’s on the right side of his batting splits today, and his .204 ISO against righties over the past year leads all Minnesota batters inside the top five of the order.
Other Batters
The Royals are just outside the top tier of implied totals (4.8 runs) and could easily fly under the radar in guaranteed prize pools. Salvador Perez is one of the highest-rated batters in our models, with a massive 244-foot batted-ball distance, 96 mph exit velocity and 51% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days.
Teammate Whit Merrifield could be a fantastic stacking partner: He’s absolutely crushed the baseball lately as well with a comparable batted-ball distance of 239 feet, exit velocity of 94 mph, and fly-ball rate of 46% over that same time period.
The Blue Jays are not implied to score a ton of runs (4.4), but Billy McKinney may be one of the best one-off plays on the board today. He’s on the right side of massive batting splits, including a NSFW .479 wOBA and .375 ISO over the past year against right-handed pitching. He’s opposing Dan Straily, who almost always provides upside with terrible 1.78 HR/9 and 1.525 WHIP marks over the past year.
As popular as Severino will be today, the Yankees bats are similarly intriguing against the Tigers. You might have to go up the order a bit to gain some differentiation in tournaments, but luckily Neil Walker and Gleyber Torres appear to be primed for upside in the Nos. 5 and No. 6 spots. Walker is on the right side his splits with +0.11 wOBA and +0.09 ISO differentials, and Torres is in decent recent form with a 231-foot batted-ball distance over the past 15 days.
Matt Carpenter almost always deserves exposure in tournaments because of his immense daily upside, noted by a top-six ceiling projection in our models. Another guy who stands out is projected cleanup hitter Tyler O’Neill. His Statcast numbers rival any player’s today, sporting a 244-foot batted-ball distance and 56% fly-ball rate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Luis Severino
Photo credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
