The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 14-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On DraftKings, there are three pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
- Michael Foltynewicz (R) $11,100, ATL @ MIA
- Mike Clevinger (R) $10,600, CLE @ KC
- Dereck Rodriguez (R) $10,100, SF vs. TEX
There’s not a ton to fall in love with at the high end today, but Foltynewicz is the most-expensive pitcher on both sites and certainly possesses some enticing data points. On the surface, it looks like a strong matchup against an opposing Marlins team that ranks 27th in wRC+ against righties this season (FanGraphs). However, the strikeout upside for Foltynewicz could be limited with a subpar 6.6 K Prediction, likely due to Miami’s projected lineup owning a middling 22.9% strikeout rate.
Vegas appears to be on board with the Braves, however, as they are sizable -180 moneyline favorites and the Marlins are implied for a slate-low 3.2 runs. Another positive is Foltynewicz’ strong recent form, as he’s yielded a batted-ball distance of 185 feet and exit velocity of 87 mph over his past two starts. Per our Trends tool, pitchers with comparable K Predictions, Vegas data, and Statcast numbers have been fantastic investments, sporting a +3.19 DraftKings Plus/Minus albeit at a chalky 31.5% ownership rate.
Clevinger is in an above-average matchup against a projected Royals lineup with a 25.0% strikeout rate and .299 weighted on-base average (wOBA) over the past 12 months against righties. The Indians are -190 moneyline favorites, but Clevinger’s 6.3 K Prediction is certainly on the lower end for what you would look for in this salary range. His salary is much more reasonable on FanDuel, however, with an 87% Bargain Rating.
Paying up for Rodriguez makes some sense, especially considering players could gravitate toward some of the chalkier mid-range pitchers or Coors Field bats. This matchup obviously comes with risk — the Rangers projected lineup owns the second-highest wOBA on the slate (0.34) — but AT&T Park is historically a favorable pitching environment with a 93 Park Factor. Rodriguez has been the most consistent of the high-priced pitchers on the slate over the past year, averaging a +4.5 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 81% Consistency Rating.
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Values
Drew Hutchison is priced reasonably at $6,600 on DraftKings but is just $5,700 on FanDuel with an 82% Bargain Rating. The Giants are 25th in wRC+ against righties over the past year, and Hutchison will benefit from the same positive park shift as Rodriguez. His 1.77 WHIP hardly inspires confidence for cash games, but you could gain a ton of leverage if Rodriguez ends up being a chalky option. Hutchison has been much better at limiting hard contact lately: His 18% hard-hit rate over his past two starts is third best on the slate and 15 percentage points better than his long-term average.
Erasmo Ramirez is sporting a 74% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and although the Mariners are +153 underdogs, there is clearly upside here, as the projected Diamondbacks lineup owns the third-highest strikeout rate on the slate (26.9%) to right-handed pitching. While his $5,000 price tag offers salary relief, Ramirez also provides solid recent Statcast data, including a 178-foot batted-ball distance and 31% hard-hit rate over his past two starts. His 6.3 K Prediction is top five in the slate.
Fastballs
Rich Hill: He still looks underpriced in the mid-to-high salary range on both sites, coming in at $9,800 and $8,100 on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. Hill will take on a projected Padres lineup that has a slate-high 28.5% strikeout rate, so it’s not surprising that he leads the slate with a 7.3 K Prediction. The Dodgers are massive -247 moneyline favorites, so Hill will be chalky, but his upside may still be worth it in tournaments.
CC Sabathia: He was absolutely dealing in his last start, surrendering only one hit over six innings with seven strikeouts against the Rangers. He could easily keep things going tonight against the Orioles; they currently sit dead last in wRC+ to lefties this season. Sabathia’s 6.7 K Prediction trails only Hill’s on today’s slate.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top main-slate DraftKings stacks in the Bales Model belongs to the Diamondbacks, who are just outside the top tier implied for a healthy 4.8 runs:
- 1. Jon Jay (L)
- 2. A.J. Pollock (R)
- 3. David Peralta (L)
- 4. Paul Goldschmidt (R)
- 5. Eduardo Escobar (S)
Total Salary: $25,500
They’re expensive but worth it, as the Diamondbacks are set to take on Mariners righty Ramirez, who is prone to the long ball with a slate-worst 2.32 HR/9 over the past year.
The player most likely to abuse Ramirez is probably Goldschmidt in the cleanup spot. He’s in elite recent batted-ball form, sporting a 254-foot average distance, 98 mph exit velocity, and massive 57% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Peralta isn’t far behind, with positive 15-day/12-month differentials of +33 feet, +2 mph, and +20 percentage points in those same categories.
Coors Field will be easy to stack today considering the plethora of value pitching options available, and the top four-man FanDuel stack at Coors on today’s slate belongs to the Rockies, who are tied for a slate-high 5.3 runs:
- 2. DJ LeMahieu (R)
- 4. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 5. Trevor Story (R)
- 6. David Dahl (L)
Total Salary: $16,400
The Rockies are very rarely a contrarian option when playing at Coors, but one way to differentiate could be by leaving off leadoff hitter Charlie Blackmon from your stack. He’s provided a low 36% Consistency Rating over the past month, and his Statcast data leaves a lot to be desired. Over the past 15 days, he’s provided a batted-ball distance of only 179 feet, an exit velocity of 88 mph, and a fly-ball rate of 21%.
Arenado is on the wrong side of his batting splits, but he has outstanding Statcast marks over his past 12 games, including a 231-foot batted ball distance, 95 mph exit velocity, and 48% hard-hit rate. In the No. 6 spot, Dahl could be a nice pivot if you decide not to roster Blackmon. He’s been crushing the baseball over the past 15 days with a 94 mph exit velocity and 48% hard-hit rate.
Other Batters
The Rockies and Cardinals are obviously going at each other at Coors Field, so both teams will likely be popular. Of the two, the Cardinals are still probably the preferred team for GPPs, but it is much easier to jam in a four-man stack on FanDuel because of position eligibility restrictions on DraftKings that make a five-man stack much more challenging. Leadoff hitter Matt Carpenter should probably anchor St. Louis stacks per usual, and his 0.410 wOBA and .308 ISO against right-handed pitching are absurd marks. In the No. 5 position, Paul DeJong is also an appealing option with a 95% Bargain Rating and 50% fly-ball rate to go along with an elite 252-foot batted-ball distance over the past 15 days.
Speaking of insane splits, Jose Ramirez provides a 0.463 wOBA and .374 ISO against righties, and the Indians’ 5.3 implied run total is tied for the highest on the slate. That said, he’s in tough recent form: He has just one home run over his past eight games, and his -70 Recent Batted Ball Luck (BBL) is third worst on the entire slate. Francisco Lindor has also struggled lately, with a subpar 189-foot batted-ball distance and a 15-day/12-month Statcast differential of 32 feet. All things considered, Cleveland bats look like a decent fade.
Manny Machado is one of the few high-end batters who is actually a better value on DraftKings than FanDuel. He has also been generating a ton of hard contact lately with a 96 mph exit velocity and 55% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. His nine DraftKings Pro Trends are tied for the third most on the slate, and the Dodgers are implied for 5.0 runs against Clayton Richard and the Padres. Matt Kemp continues to crush the ball, even though it hasn’t necessarily translated to fantasy points lately. He’s averaging just 3.8 DraftKings PPG over the past month but owns a slate-high +89 Recent BBL Score.
Projected to bat second for the Royals, Alex Gordon could be an interesting way to save salary today and gain leverage on those rostering Clevinger. He’s priced at just $3,100 on DraftKings with impressive recent Statcast data, including a batted-ball distance of 234 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph, and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 47% and 44%. The Royals are implied for a paltry 3.8 runs, but as a one-off play in tournaments, you could do worse. Historically, hitters with similar lineup spots, salaries, Vegas data, and recent Statcast numbers have provided a +2.56 DraftKings Plus/Minus at a 53.3% Consistency rate. They’ve also carried just 4.5% ownership in large guaranteed prize pools.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Rich Hill
Photo credit: Jayne Kamin-USA TODAY Sports
