The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
FanDuel will offer a 14-game all-day slate starting at 12:05 p.m. ET, and both site’s four-game early slates begin at 12:05 p.m. ET.
Additionally, both DraftKings’ and FanDuel’s eight-game main slates will start at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost $10,000 or higher:
- Jacob deGrom (R), $12,000, NYM @ CWS
- Jose Berrios (R), $10,400, MIN @ MIA
- Luis Castillo (R), $10,000, CIN vs. PIT
Jacob deGrom has been solid over the last month, averaging a +6.33 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 70% Consistency Rating, and this year he’s pitched to a 3.29 xFIP with a 31.2% strikeout rate. Up next is a fantasy-friendly matchup against a projected White Sox lineup with a 26.9% strikeout rate and .314 wOBA over the past year against right-handed pitchers.
Overall, the Mets have some of the most favorable Vegas data on the slate as the White Sox’s 3.6 implied run total and the Mets’ -158 moneyline odds are the third-best marks on the main slate. And this year, Chicago has been underwhelming against righties, ranking 27th or worse in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), ISO and wOBA.
New York’s deGrom leads our floor, median and ceiling projections and is a strong play in all formats.
Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom
Berrios will square off with the Marlins for another Interleague matchup on Wednesday night. It’s a favorable matchup against a projected Marlins lineup that has a high 29% strikeout rate and abysmal .285 wOBA against righties over the past year.
He’s been slightly worse than his 2.94 ERA suggests since his xFIP (4.42) is around 1.5 runs higher. Berrios also doesn’t have the strikeout potential that deGrom has since his 6.6 K Prediction is roughly two strikeouts lower than deGrom’s. This isn’t terribly surprising since Berrios is striking out batters at 10% lower rate than deGrom.
However, he’ll enter this game with solid Statcast data, holding opposing hitters to an average distance of 186 feet with an 89-mph exit velocity and 29% hard-hit rate. Additionally, the Twins are the largest favorites on the main slate with -186 moneyline odds, and the Marlins’ 3.4 implied run total is a slate low.
The matchup against the Marlins doesn’t get much better since they rank 29th or worse in wRC+, wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitchers this season.
By default, Castillo is the best option on the early slate. He owns a 3.74 xFIP with a 28.6% strikeout rate this year, but he’ll draw one of the worst matchups for strikeout potential against a projected Pirates lineup with a low 24.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the last 12 months.
His primary downside is the fact that he has an 11.7% walk rate, but that should be somewhat mitigated by the fact that the Pirates have the eighth-lowest walk rate against righties this year. Furthermore, the Pirates’ 3.9 implied run total and Reds’ -205 moneyline odds are easily the best marks on the early slate. All other teams are implied for at least 4.5 runs or more and the next best moneyline odds behind Castillo belongs to the Yankees at -130.
Values
Jake Junis is probably the next best option after Castillo on the early slate. He has a 73% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and is a viable SP2 option on DraftKings. The Blue Jays’ projected lineup has a high 27.8% strikeout rate against righties over the last year, and they rank just 23rd in wRC+ against righties this year.
None of the secondary options are appealing on the early slate since all the opponents have sizable implied run totals, but Junis at least has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Value options aren’t pretty on the main slate either, but Miles Mikolas has a 64% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, along with the sixth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on that respective site. The main issue with Mikolas is he isn’t a high-strikeout pitcher, although the projected Cubs lineup has an extremely high 32.1% strikeout rate against righties over the last year.
Overall, the Cubs’ 4.1 implied run total is the fourth-lowest implied run total, at the time of writing, with a few games off the board. That game is basically a pick’em with the Cardinals checking in with -101 moneyline odds.
If you want to punt the SP2 spot on DraftKings, Jordan Lyles costs just $6,100 and checks in with an 80% Bargain Rating. It’s not an ideal spot against the A’s, but Lyles does have the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Fastballs
Mike Minor: He’s a viable option against a projected Mariners lineup with a high 32.3% strikeout rate against lefties over the last 12 months. There’s some risk as the Mariners have a 4.4 implied run total and Minor can be volatile at times. He also has worrisome Statcast data, but he carries the second-highest median projection and third-highest Projected Plus/Minus in our models.
Kyle Hendricks: He has a 79% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and will take on a projected Cardinals lineup with a 27.6% strikeout rate and .287 wOBA. Hendricks has underwhelming upside, but the Cardinals aren’t an imposing matchup, ranking 26th in ISO and 22nd in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this year.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top four-man DraftKings stacks for the early slate in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Kansas City Royals.
- 1. Whit Merrifield (R)
- 2. Alex Gordon (L)
- 3. Hunter Dozier (R)
- 4. Jorge Soler (R)
Total salary: $17,800
The Royals are one of four teams with an implied run total over 5.0 runs for the early slate. Their 5.2 implied run total is the third-highest total, while their Team Value Rating of 81 in our Vegas Dashboard trails only the Reds. Overall, it’s an intriguing spot against Jacob Waguespack, who has allowed three or more earned runs over his last four starts.
The matchup against the righty will put Dozier on the positive side of his splits as he’s hit righties to the tune of a .377 wOBA and .268 ISO over the last 12 months. Dozier hasn’t generated much fantasy production of late, but owns a 235-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 47% hard-hit rate over the last two weeks, and his +31 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) Score suggests he could be headed for progression.
Despite the righty-righty matchup, Soler will also be on the positive side of his splits. He’s throttled right-handed pitchers, boasting a .367 wOBA and .289 ISO against them over the last year. Both Dozier and Soler have the highest Bargain Ratings (75% and 67%) of this stack.
One of the top FanDuel stacks for the main slate in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the San Francisco Giants.
- 1. Brandon Belt (L)
- 2. Mike Yastrzemski (L)
- 4. Alex Dickerson (L)
- 5. Stephen Vogt (L)
Total salary: $11,800
The Giants’ 4.8 implied run total is just the fourth-highest total on the main slate, but their Team Value Rating of 86 is a slate best. They’ll take on Vince Velasquez, who has pitched to a 4.55 xFIP with an 18.3% K-BB% this year.
The main benefit of this stack is how cheap it is, which should allow for some roster flexibility and to pay for expensive pitching, or mix in some of the other appealing expensive bats. With the exception of Belt, everyone in this stack has a Bargain Rating of at least 88%.
The spot against Velasquez will put Dickerson on the positive side of his splits. Over the last year, he’s hit right-handed pitchers incredibly well, boasting a .475 wOBA and .341 ISO. He’s also in solid batted-ball form, possessing a 237-foot average distance with a 93-mph exit velocity.
Additionally, Vogt owns a .402 wOBA and .293 ISO against righties, and he owns the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel among catchers and first basemen. Vogt is in good form over the last 15 days, exceeding his 12-month averages in batted-ball distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Other Batters
Jesse Winker is a strong play on the early slate. He’s hitting leadoff for a Reds team that is implied for a slate-high 5.7 runs. He’s hit righties well over the last 12 months, owning a .363 wOBA and .222 ISO against them. Per our Trends tool, leadoff hitters featured in games with comparable implied run totals have averaged a +2.43 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
If you need some salary relief, Ji-Man Choi has an 84% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, along with a top-two Projected Plus/Minus. The Rays have a respectable 5.0 implied run total against Rick Porcello, and Choi will get a lefty-righty matchup which puts him on the positive side of his splits, sporting a .372 wOBA and .203 ISO against them.
Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Boston Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts.
If you have the extra salary, Mookie Betts is the top-rated hitter in both the CSURAM88 and Bales Model for the main slate. The Red Sox’s 5.9 implied run total leads the main slate, and Betts has smashed righties, flaunting a .407 wOBA and .239 ISO. Betts is in good form, evidenced by his 237-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 43% hard-hit rate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis or how to bet on sports.
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Pictured above: Brandon Belt
Photo credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
