Monday features Game 3 of the NLCS between the St Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals at 7:38 p.m. ET.
The single-game format will take center stage, so let’s start by taking a brief look at the different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Format
FanDuel will use its traditional single-game format. That means you’ll have to roster one MVP, one All-Star and three utilities. Your MVP will get a 2x scoring bonus while your All-Star will get a 1.5x scoring bonus. You don’t need to pay additional salary to roster players in those premium spots.
FanDuel also features only hitters. You won’t have to worry about choosing between any of the pitchers on either roster and can focus simply on which batters you think will score the most fantasy points.
The DraftKings format is a little more complicated. For starters, you have to roster six players instead of five, and you’ll have to choose between batters and pitchers. DraftKings also features a captain, who earns a 1.5x scoring multiplier, but will cost 1.5x their traditional salary.
Relief pitchers also become viable options in this format. They aren’t as dominant as they were in previous seasons — last year they earned more points for innings pitched and strikeouts than starting pitchers — but they still have the potential to provide excellent value at their current salaries. Most of the relievers are priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, so pitchers who have the potential to pitch multiple innings are particularly intriguing.
Pitchers
Both teams will send ace-caliber pitchers to the mound in tonight’s contest. Vegas has responded by setting the total at just 6.5 runs, which is the lowest mark we’ve seen all postseason. According to BetLabs, there has only been one other postseason game with a total below seven since 2017. Overall, there has been more offense than expected in low-totaled postseason games, with the over posting a 33-28-1 record since 2010.
Let’s start with the Nationals. They won each of the first two games of this series in St. Louis and will have a chance to take a commanding 3-0 lead with a win tonight. They’ll send Stephen Strasburg to the mound, and he’s been excellent to start the postseason. He’s pitched to a 2.40 ERA while recording 21 strikeouts over 15 innings. Strasburg was also excellent during the regular season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.37 on DraftKings.
He has the slight edge this matchup. The Cardinals’ lineup has been pretty mediocre against right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .279 wOBA and 23.9% strikeout rate. They are easily the worst remaining offense in the postseason. Strasburg is a slight -127 favorite at home, giving him a 3.1 opponent implied team total.
Vegas is also giving Strasburg the slight edge in terms of strikeout upside. His strikeout prop is set at 7.0, and he recorded 15 strikeouts over 11.2 innings vs. the Cardinals during the regular season.
Strasburg is the most expensive player on the slate by a pretty significant margin, but it’s hard to argue against him.
That said, Jack Flaherty might be a better value. He’s roughly $2,000 cheaper than Strasburg, and he was arguably the best pitcher in baseball over the second half of the season. He pitched to a ridiculous 0.91 ERA while striking out 11.23 batters per nine innings. That unsurprisingly led to a lot of fantasy success, and he averaged a Plus/Minus of +10.91 and a 95.0% Consistency Rating on DraftKings over that time frame (per the Trends tool).
He was able to carry that success over to the postseason, where he pitched to a 2.77 ERA and 11.1 K/9 vs. the Atlanta Braves. The Cardinals are in a must-win situation, so expect them to try and get as much production as possible from Flaherty in this matchup.
Flaherty is at a disadvantage in terms of Vegas data, but his strikeout upside is close. His prop is slightly lower than Strasburg’s, but his K Prediction in our MLB Models is actually higher (8.0 vs. 7.5). The Nationals offense is no joke — they ranked third in wRC+ vs. right-handers over the second half of the season — but Flaherty is talented enough to limit them.
Overall, the difference in salary and potential lower ownership makes him a very appealing option.
Both starters have the potential to pitch deep into this contest, which limits the upside for the bullpens. Neither of these teams have really shown a willingness to use relievers for multiple innings either.
Still, pairing Strasburg and Flaherty together is a viable option on this slate, and you’ll need at least one bullpen arm to make that happen.
For the Nationals, the only true relievers they’ve trusted during the postseason are Sean Doolittle and Daniel Hudson. Hudson is priced like a starter, which leaves Doolittle as the only viable option. He struggled a bit during the regular season, pitching to a 4.05 ERA, but he’s allowed just two runs over 5.2 inning during the postseason.
It’s tougher to decipher the pecking order in the Cards’ bullpen. They rely on a host of relievers to get the job done. Carlos Martinez will likely serve as the closer in a save situation, but he’s not an option at $8,400.
Giovanny Gallegos, Ryan Helsley, Andrew Miller, Tyler Webb, and John Brebbia are all priced at the minimum, and all five have the potential to get into this contest at some point. Miller and Helsley both pitched in Game 2, while all five appeared in Game 1. Overall, each player has pitched between 2.1 and 3.1 innings during the playoffs, and they are very frequently used for less than a full inning. It might be better to just avoid this crapshoot.
Batters
Cardinals Lineup
- 1. Dexter Fowler (S)
- 2. Kolten Wong (L)
- 3. Paul Goldschimdt (R)
- 4. Marcell Ozuna (R)
- 5. Yadier Molina (R)
- 6. Jose Martinez (R)
- 7. Tommy Edman (L)
- 8. Paul DeJong (R)
The Cardinals lineup remains an anomaly from a DFS perspective. Their three cheapest batters hit first, second and fifth, while their most expensive option bats seventh.
One notable change is that Martinez will move into the starting lineup after serving as a pinch hitter in each of the first two games. He went 2-2 off the bench in those contests, and the dude can flat out hit. He batted over .300 in 2017 and 2018 before struggling to a .269 average this season. His defense is the reason he isn’t in the lineup more frequently — he’s better suited as a DH than an outfielder — but he’s definitely capable of making an impact in this contest.
Ozuna has a lot of history vs. Strasburg from his time with the Marlins, and he has ultimately fared well in this matchup. He’s posted 14 hits over 44 career at bats, good for a .318 batting average. Five of those hits have gone for extra bases, including three home runs. Ozuna is the rare right-handed batter who fares better against right-handers than left-handers, so this seems like a nice spot to roster him.
I will continue to roster Fowler at just $5,200 on DraftKings. That is a ridiculous price for a leadoff hitter, especially since Fowler has been at his best vs. right-handers this season. He’s not an elite offensive option, but his 107 wRC+ vs. right-handers suggests he’s still an above-average hitter on that side of his splits.
DeJong is an interesting source of value at the bottom of the lineup. He’s displayed big power vs. right-handers this season. Overall, 27 of his 30 HRs have come against traditional pitchers, resulting in a .228 ISO.
Nationals Lineup
- 1. Trea Turner (R)
- 2. Adam Eaton (L)
- 3. Anthony Rendon (R)
- 4. Juan Soto (L)
- 5. Howie Kendrick (R)
- 6. Ryan Zimmerman (R)
- 7. Kurt Suzuki (R)
- 8. Victor Robles (R)
No real changes here for the Nationals, with the exception of Robles returning to the lineup. He missed each of the first two games of this series with a hamstring injury, while will send Michael A. Taylor back to the bench.
The Nationals feature a “big three” at the top of their lineup can rival any team’s in baseball. Turner, Rendon, and Soto have each been been elite offensive players this season, and each brings a unique skill set to the table.
Turner is the burner. He’s averaged .185 steals per game over the past 12 months, which is easily the top mark on the slate. He’s also capable of doing some damage with his bat, evidenced by a 120 wRC+ vs. right-handers this season.
Rendon is the steady veteran. He was an elite hitter vs. both right- and left-handers this season, and he posted a wRC+ of at least 153 on each side of his splits at home. He did display a bit less power vs. right-handers, but he makes up for it by cutting his strikeout rate by nearly one third.
Soto is the phenom. His plate vision and discipline is nearly unmatched by any 20-year-old in league history. He’s also capable of crushing the ball when he gets his pitch: He posted a 155 wRC+, .414 wOBA, and .303 ISO vs. right-handers this season.
All three make for strong options.
Eaton is sandwiched in-between Turner and Rendon as the No. 2 hitter, which automatically gives him some DFS value. He’s also on the positive side of his splits vs. Strasburg, and his $7,800 salary on DraftKings makes him one of the cheaper options on the team.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Nationals SP Stephen Strasburg (37)
Photo credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
