Tuesday features a two-game slate starting at 4:08 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Today’s pitchers span the entire pricing spectrum on DraftKings:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $10,200, HOU @ NYY
- Patrick Corbin (L) $8,400, WSH vs. STL
- Luis Severino (R) $6,900, NYY vs. HOU
- Dakota Hudson (R) $5,600, STL @ WSH
Cole gets the ball for the Astros in a pivotal Game 3. The Astros managed to walk off in extra innings in Game 2, which sent the series back to New York even at 1-1.
The Astros couldn’t ask for a better starter in a big game. Cole has dominated all season, pitching to a 2.50 ERA, 2.64 FIP, and 13.82 K/9. He led all qualified starters in strikeout rate, and he also led all starters in Wins Above Replacement. Overall, he was dominant from a fantasy perspective, averaging a Plus/Minus of +9.53 on DraftKings.
He continued his domination in the first round of the playoffs, pitching to a 0.57 ERA vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. He also struck out 25 batters over just 15.2 innings. Tampa Bay finished eighth in wRC+ vs. right-handers during the regular season, so those outings were extremely impressive.
That said, the Yankees do represent a step up in weight class. Their projected lineup has crushed right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .365 wOBA. Still, Cole’s 3.4 opponent implied team total is tied for the lowest mark on the slate, and his -154 moneyline odds rank second.
Where Cole really stands out is with his strikeout upside. He leads all pitchers with a K Prediction of 10.3, and he’s recorded double-digit strikeouts in each of his past 11 starts. The Yankees’ projected lineup has posted a 25.6% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, so it’s hard to see that streak ending unless they can knock him out of the game early.
Corbin is another elite option, and he’ll come at a slight price discount compared to Cole across the industry. He’s taking on the St. Louis Cardinals, who possess easily the least imposing offense among the remaining playoff teams. Their projected lineup has struggled to a .266 wOBA and 26.8% strikeout rate against southpaws over the past 12 months, both of which are the worst splits-adjusted marks on the slate by a comfortable margin. The Cardinals’ implied team total of 3.4 runs is tied for the lowest mark on the slate.
Corbin doesn’t possess the same elite strikeout upside as Cole, but he can still do some damage. He pitched to a K/9 of 10.60 this season, resulting in a K Prediction of 7.1.
The other two pitching options are riskier. Severino remains somewhat limited since returning from an injury on September 17th. He lasted just 4.0 innings and 83 pitches in his first preseason appearance, resulting in just 13.4 DraftKings points.
Now, he gets a showdown with arguably the most imposing lineup in all of baseball. They finished first in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season, and their projected lineup has posted a ridiculous .379 wOBA over the past 12 months. They’ve also struck out in just 19.1% of at bats vs. right-handers, so it’s hard to see a situation where Severino returns value barring a large increase in his workload.
Hudson is the cheapest option on the slate, and he’s the most unique pitcher. He’s not a strikeout pitcher — he’s posted a K/9 of just 7.03 over the past 12 months — but he induces ground balls at the highest rate in the league. That allows him to limit the damage on balls in play, and the result was a 3.35 ERA.
That said, it’s not a particularly good matchup vs. the Nationals. Comparable ground ball pitchers have struggled against the Nats this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of -1.95 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool). The Nationals also posted the fifth-lowest strikeout rate vs. right-handers this season, so Hudson has even less strikeout upside than usual.
Credit: Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Patrick Corbin
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Washington Nationals:
- 1. Trea Turner (R)
- 2. Adam Eaton (L)
- 3. Anthony Rendon (R)
- 4. Juan Soto (L)
- 5. Howie Kendrick (R)
Total Salary: $23,400
The Nationals figure to be the highest-owned team on the slate. Their implied team total of 4.2 runs is tied with the Astros’, but their matchup vs. Hudson is a lot less imposing. Stacking the top of the Nats’ lineup should be particularly chalky: Each batters is projected for at least 30% ownership.
The biggest concern with the Nationals is their price tag. Rendon, Turner, Soto, and Kendrick are all priced in the top seven among batters on DraftKings, which makes them tough to pair Cole. Stacking the Nationals with Cole and Corbin — the two clear top starters on the slate — is simply not possible.
Still, it’s hard to deny their upside. These batters are priced up for a reason: They’re among the best hitters in baseball. Eaton stands out as an important value option at just $4,000. He’ll be on the positive side of his splits vs. Hudson, and he was at his best when facing right-handers at home this season. He posted a 127 wRC+ in that situation, and he hit for significantly more power as well.
Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Trea Turner
The Nationals also own the top four-man stack on FanDuel, so let’s focus on the Astros instead:
- 1. George Springer (R)
- 2. Michael Brantley (L)
- 5. Yordan Alvarez (L)
- 6. Yuli Gurriel (R)
Total Salary: $14,400
Stacking the Astros in the above manner should be relatively unique. Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve have been arguably their two best batters this season, and both occupy premium spots in the lineup. Going down to Alvarez and Gurriel should increase your chances of having a contrarian lineup.
Brantley and Alvarez also benefit from a nice park upgrade. While Houston has a short porch in left field — which benefits right-handed batters — Yankee Stadium is notorious for its short porch in right field. The result is a Park Factor of 81 for the left-handed batters, which is the top mark on the slate.
Alvarez doesn’t need any help hitting HRs — he launched 50 between Triple-A and the majors this season — but he might’ve hit 60 if he played half his games at Yankee Stadium. He’s a prime candidate to go yard in this contest.
Gurriel doesn’t get the same park upgrade as Alvarez and Brantley, but he is the rare right-handed batter who performs better against right-handed pitchers. He posted a 140 wRC+ vs. traditional pitchers this season, and he hit 24 of his 31 HRs against right-handers as well.
Other Batters
You don’t necessarily need to stack on just a two-game slate. Sure, stacking is the easiest way to win due to the highly correlated scoring in baseball, but it’s not a prerequisite for taking down a GPP. If you want to create some lineups with both Cole and Corbin — and I certainly want to do that on DraftKings — you might want to just cherry pick the best values from each team.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but I’m going back to the well with Dexter Fowler. He’s priced at just $3,500 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 82%. That’s extremely cheap for a leadoff hitter. Historically, leadoff hitters with comparable salaries have posted an Upside Rating of 17%.
If you’re looking to get some exposure vs. Cole, Brett Gardner could be the answer. He’s fared well against Cole in a small sample size, posting a 1.250 OPS over six plate appearances, and he was quietly one of the Yankees’ best batters vs. right-handers this season. His .377 wOBA v.s right-handers over the past 12 months ranks first among the Yankees’ projected starters, while his .283 ISO ranks second.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Astros SP Gerrit Cole (45)
Photo credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports
