Stacking in MLB DFS has become an essential part of the game. We’ve covered the topic — including recent changes to DraftKings (DK) rules — quite thoroughly in the past and due to its importance, we’ll begin laying out situations that both behoove themselves to stacking and others that may warrant fading a potentially popular stack on a slate.
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We’ve got a big 14-game slate on tap today, so I won’t waste your time with a long intro. Just know that it’s our first Coors Field day of the year!
For today’s slate, I’ll be focusing on two stacks to target but also offering some fades within the lineups themselves as a way to differentiate yourself.
Stacks to Target
Colorado Rockies – Projected Run Total: 5.6
Stack the Rockies at home. Don’t over-complicate things too much.
They’re projected to score the most runs by far on this slate, they’re at home in Coors where they have a Park Factor of 100 and the matchup against righty Colin Rea should be exploitable for the vast majority of this lineup.
I won’t go too in depth on this stack, as most people are familiar with the reasoning behind utilizing teams in Colorado. Just know that they will likely be the chalk and the majority of the lineup will make for elite cash plays, whether stacked or not. If you’re opting to roll with them in tournaments, you will need to ensure that you have differentiated your lineup a great deal, as there will be a ton of overlap.
In my opinion, fading Trevor Story seems like the easiest way to get some distance from the pack with this lineup. After his insane start to the season, his ownership is going to be exceedingly high tonight. It’s a tough fade, since he has been red hot, but if he struggles at his projected ownership levels, it’ll give you a nice leg-up on the competition.
Also, consider targeting the bottom half of the lineup as an alternative way to differentiate yourself from the pack while still maintaining significant exposure to this game. Incorporating lefty Ben Paulsen (assuming he starts) and his .223 ISO against righties seems like a good place to begin.
Pittsburgh Pirates – Projected Run Total: 4.4
On a slate chock-full of high projected run totals, the Pirates may fly under the radar a bit today. With an opportunity to face off against Alfredo Simon — and the game taking place in the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ballpark — there is some real potential for a nice game from this team.
Simon has below-average velocity, doesn’t strike anyone out — his K/9 is a dreadful 5.8 — and has a WHIP that is bottom-third in the league. He is pretty exploitable.
On paper, the matchup against a righty appears to be only so-so for the vast majority of this lineup, but if we turn to our Trends tool, we can see that it may be a bit more advantageous than it initially seems.
Utilizing our Opp Pitch Velocity, Opp Pitcher Throws and Park Factor Filters — and using a population of only today’s expected starting lineup — I’ve compiled a trend to get an idea of how the Pirates have performed against pitchers with comparable profiles in similar stadium situations. And as you can probably guess by the fact that they’re included in this column, it’s good.
Now, let’s pinpoint our preferred targets in this lineup.
We don’t have massive sample sizes for any of this crew, but based upon these results and the player’s wOBA/ISO averages versus righties, anyone in the 1-7 spots — Jaso, McCutchen, Freese, Marte, Cervelli, Polanco and Harrison — should make for quality stacking options. One player who particularly stands out as a fairly cheap and likely low-owned option is Josh Harrison. He has a very small but productive sampling of games in comparable situations that we can look to for some type of indication of how he may perform tonight.
His projected spot in the lineup order isn’t ideal, but the upside is intriguing. I wouldn’t go crazy on my exposure to this stack, but as a likely to be low-owned option, it’s worth a shot in guaranteed prize pools.