Stacking in MLB DFS has become an essential part of the game. We’ve covered the topic — including recent changes to DraftKings (DK) rules — quite thoroughly in the past and due to it’s importance, we’ll begin laying out situations that both behoove themselves to stacking and others that may warrant fading a potentially popular stack on a slate.
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With a solid eight-game slate, we’re finally getting deeper into team’s rotations and we should really start to see some exploitable situations present themselves. For today’s write-up, I’ll be highlighting two stacks to target and a stack to fade, so let’s get to it.
Stacks to Target
Chicago Cubs – Projected Run Total: 4.9
I’m having a really tough time getting away from the Cubs against Rubby De La Rosa at Chase Field tonight and Vegas seems to agree with this sentiment, as the Cubs have the slate’s highest projected run total at 4.9. This projection likely means the Cubs will be very chalky, but it’s not without reason. The vast majority of this lineup will match up very well with De La Rosa, making them a quality stacking option.
Not only do six of the eight projected starters have positive ISO splits against righties, but as we can see by utilizing our Trends tool, the matchup is even more positive than the usual metrics may be able to convey.
Facing hard-throwing, right-handed pitchers proved to be an incredibly exploitable situation for the majority of this team last season, particularly in parks more conducive to offensive production. Combining the Park Factor, Opposing Pitcher Velocity, and the handedness of the opposing pitcher filters within the Trends tool really allows us to get a clear picture of how this lineup has fared against players with a comparable profile. Hint: it’s good.
Seeing an average Plus/Minus over +1.00 for an entire lineup is certainly a sign that it’s a situation that will be conducive to stacking. But to get a better idea of what stack combinations may be the most fruitful, lets look at how each individual player has performed.
Not the biggest sample size for all players, but a few of them have shown really consistent results over acceptable enough periods of time. Taking into account the information above, I’m actively targeting stacks built around Bryant (.376 wOBA/.213 ISO vs. RHP), Rizzo (.382 wOBA/.251 ISO vs. RHP) and Schwarber (.403 wOBA/.275 ISO vs. RHP, albeit a smaller sample size). There are a multitude of ways to run five-man stacks with this lineup today, with everything from a basic 1-5 to more unconventional stacks built around the lower half of the lineup all being viable strategies. If you want to employ this stack in tournaments, you’ll likely want to mix in some of the lower half of the lineup to attempt to differentiate your lineup.
Los Angeles Dodgers – Projected Run Total: 3.7
Looking at things from a more contrarian perspective, the Dodgers have the second-lowest run projection from Vegas on today’s slate and are playing in the pitcher’s paradise of AT&T Park, which should assure that their ownership will be incredibly low.
I like this stack for a couple of reasons (outside of the fact that they’ll be low owned); first, the Dodgers have been playing really solid baseball thus far — having scored 25 runs through their first three games — and second, the top half of this lineup all have really strong splits against righties.
Corey Seager, Justin Turner, and Adrian Gonzalez make up the 2-4 spots in this lineup and all have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching. Additionally, this lineup has proven to have far greater success against pitchers with slower velocity — they’ll face Jake Peavy and his average velocity of 88.5 mph today — than higher-velocity pitchers.
The average Plus/Minus of +0.45 and Consistency rating of 43.3% we see above are markedly higher than the marks this group has posted against pitchers with higher velocity, where we see an average Plus/Minus of only -0.10 and a Consistency rating of 37.8%.
If we look at how the players have done individually, this lineup sets up perfectly for a four-man stack, utilizing the 2-5 lineup spots.
While Puig hasn’t had the best returns, he’s always a candidate for a big game. And if we see the 2-4 hitters able to produce, he’ll be in an ideal spot for production.
Now, there is a caveat to all of the data above. The results don’t factor in Park Factor, because there simply wasn’t enough of a sample size. Embracing this risk and uncertainty is what is going to allow for the extreme discount we’ll receive on ownership with this stack though; just be aware that there’s a very real chance this stack busts.
Stack to Fade
Washington Nationals – Projected Run Total: 4.3
The Nationals have one of the highest projected run totals on today’s slate at 4.3 runs, but I’m not certain they get there today. Looking at their projected starting lineup, out of their top-five hitters, this matchup really only projects as a positive one for Ryan Zimmerman. In particular, Bryce Harper has really struggled to produce consistent power against lefties, with an ISO Difference of -.119.
So not only is the matchup not ideal, but we also have some potentially nasty weather to deal with. At the time of this writing, we’re looking at a 68% chance of precipitation in Miami. There doesn’t appear to be lightning in the forecast, so the odds of an actual postponement are slim, but it’s just another reason this lineup screams “avoid” from a stacking perspective.
The fade has even more appeal on DraftKings, where if we factor in the matter of price — only Harper has a Bargain Rating higher than 23% among the starting lineup — this stack’s upside seems quite limited today.
