Stacking in MLB DFS has become an essential part of the game. We’ve covered the topic quite thoroughly in the past and due to its importance, we’re laying out situations that both behoove themselves to stacking and others that may warrant fading a potentially popular stack on a slate.
As this article is written earlier in the day, be sure to monitor both our Player News and My Lineups page to ensure that you have the most up-to-date information.
We’ve got a huge slate of games today, so let’s jump right in.
Stack to Target
Houston Astros – Projected Run Total: 5.0
Watching Mike Pelfrey try to get major league hitters out is just painful. He just doesn’t possess the stuff to be a major league starter and it shows. With a WHIP over 1.5 and a K/9 under 5.0, he simply struggles to get batters out. Targeting a pitcher who’s accustomed to allowing an abundance of base runners is never a bad idea in general, as consistently doing so is a perfect recipe for a big inning eventually.
Recognizing that Pelfrey is a sub-par pitcher and a likely candidate to target doesn’t require the IQ of Einstein, but how good of a matchup is it really? In an effort to quantify this, let’s turn to our Trends tool.
Looking at hitters in the top half of the lineup (we’ll use the 1-5 spots) who have faced off against an opposing pitcher with both a WHIP and SO Percentile of 85 percent or higher (from the batter’s perspective, as in poor WHIP and poor SO/9 rating), the results have been extremely positive.
The splits aren’t amazing for the core of this lineup, as the 1-5 hitters all have a negative wOBA differential against righties. In general, this might be a red flag when considering stacking a team. But again, I wanted a way to quantify it. Adding a quick wOBA Diff filter looking for batters with a negative wOBA Diff will allow us to do just that.
A decrease in production? Yes. But not nearly as bad as I had initially imagined. Stuff like this is why I’m such a fan of the Trends tool, as it helps us test and quantify a situation, taking a lot of our bias out of the equation.
The 1-5 hitters in this lineup all deserve attention if building a stack of the Astros. But if Preston Tucker were to get the start, he’d be worth considering lower in the order due to his impressive wOBA/ISO splits against righties.
Stack to Fade
Miami Marlins – Projected Run Total: 4.6
The Marlins have a prime matchup against Williams Perez and his slate-worst WHIP. But based upon how this team has been hitting the ball of late, it’s tough to imagine a huge game from them in Miami with a dreadful Park Factor of 14 or lower for the entire lineup.
Looking at a trio of our new Advanced Statistics, we can visualize how poorly the majority of this lineup has been hitting the ball thus far this season.
What we’re looking at here are the Hard-Hit Differential Score, Exit Velocity Differential Score and the Distance Differential Score. The three of these filters all offer a look into how hard and how far a player is hitting the ball recently as compared to their season-long average, while taking into account how the rest of the league has performed during this time period as well. So while Dee Gordon or Christian Yelich may make for fine targets on their own merits in this matchup, a player like Giancarlo Stanton — despite his massive upside — is likely vastly overpriced when taking into account how poorly he’s been hitting the ball as of late.
There’s always upside with guys like Gordon and Stanton, but factoring in pricing, fading a Marlins stack is perfectly justifiable today.
