Stacking in MLB DFS has become an essential part of the game. We’ve covered the topic — including recent changes to DraftKings (DK) rules — quite thoroughly in the past and due to it’s importance, we’ll begin laying out situations that both behoove themselves to stacking and others that may warrant fading a stack that will be popular on a slate. In this initial article, I’ll be examining only a single stack and laying out some of the data and tools we have on the site to help you in identifying this. In subsequent offerings, I’ll be looking at stacks that we can target for cash games, tournaments, and potential fade options as well.
All references to prices and lineup configuration will be based upon DK’s format.
With all of the craziness we saw surrounding the weather, sick players, and our first pitching scratch of the year yesterday, you might have mistaken the MLB DFS landscape for the NBA’s craziness. We’ll hopefully get back to some semblance of normalcy today, but continue to monitor those weather situations out east, as seeing a team you’ve stacked get postponed is, uh, less than ideal.
One quick note before we dig in: we’ll only be considering games from DK’s 7:05 EST slate tonight for purposes of this article.
Texas Rangers – Projected Run Total: 4.3
I’m less apt to give a ton of weight to Vegas’ projected run totals this time of year, as they simply aren’t as accurate as they’ll be once we get into the season a bit. But that doesn’t mean I’m going to completely disregard them either, particularly for cash games. With a projected run total of 4.3, the Rangers have the second-highest mark of today’s slate and with the game taking place at hitter-friendly Globe Life Park — all Texas batters will have a Park Factor Rating of 44 to 65 — I’m looking to target a good number of Rangers today.
The Rangers will take on Hisashi Iwakuma today. Iwakuma’s average velocity last season was only 86.6 mph, something that the majority of this Rangers lineup should be able to exploit. If we turn to our Trends tool, we can illustrate just how well they’ve actually fared in comparable situations in the past.
I’ve compiled a trend consisting of the following: the starting nine players today, facing a right-handed pitcher with an average velocity below 90 mph, in a ballpark with a Park Factor of 40 or above.
So we can see, as a whole, this team has definitely had success against slow-throwing righties in quality hitter’s parks. So let’s break down how each has done individually to get a better idea of who we’d want to target.
Looking at the top half of the lineup, Adrian Beltre is the only one who’s really shown signs of struggling, but that’s to be expected, as he has pretty nasty splits in general.
DeShields in particular has been able to take advantage of slower velocities in these hitter-friendly parks, as his Plus/Minus was +0.46 higher against slower-velocity pitchers than high-velocity pitchers under comparable situations (righty, good Park Factor). His wOBA splits in general don’t jump off of the page, but based upon his Plus/Minus, he’s a nice target at the top of this lineup.
Any of DeShields, Choo, Fielder, and Moreland make for decent stacking targets at the top of the order. If you’re looking to differentiate this stack a bit, look to wrap around the order by utilizing Chirinos for only $3,100 at the catcher spot, as he’s shown some real upside, albeit in a limited sample size.
The top half of the order minus Beltre make for quality stack or mini-stack options in cash games. This stack may be fairly popular today due to the high projected run total, so consider mixing in Odor or Chirinos from the bottom of the lineup to differentiate the stack for tournaments.
