Stacking in MLB DFS has become an essential part of the game. We’ve covered the topic quite thoroughly in the past and due to its importance, we’re laying out situations that both behoove themselves to stacking and others that may warrant fading a potentially popular stack on a slate.
As this article is written earlier in the day, be sure to monitor both our Player News and My Lineups page to ensure that you have the most up-to-date information.
For today’s article, I thought we’d go about this in a bit of a different way, turning to our Trends tool first to help pinpoint our team to focus on. Utilizing the Hard Hit Diff Score filter within the Trends tool, I’ve identified the teams that have cumulatively hit the ball well this season, but have been the victims of a bit of bad luck. Knowing that we have a team that has been hitting the ball well so far but hasn’t necessarily produced the results we’d expect, it should allow us to roster them at a bit of a discount both price-wise and in terms of ownership.
Stack to Target
Houston Astros — Projected Run Total: 4.5
I highlighted the Astros at the end of last week in what should have been a prime matchup against Mike Pelfrey, only to see them let us down — something that is becoming a common theme for a number of members of this squad thus far this season.
To start, let’s look at the results of the trend I referenced above, on a team-by-team basis.
I’ve sorted the results based upon total Plus/Minus, giving us a gauge for how poorly this group of players has produced fantasy-wise. Again, why is this important? Mainly, because it’s a way to help us quantify the “unluckiness” factor. Hitting the ball hard consistently is a great recipe for success, unfortunately it just happens to get caught by opposing players at times. Incorporating components such as Hard-Hit Differential into our research can help us get players who may be primed for a solid game at a discount.
The main culprit from this group? Hard-hitting Carlos Correa, he of an enticing .276 ISO split versus lefties. Looking at the interactive widget below, the sea of red makes it quite apparent that Correa is struggling. But also worth noting is his drop in price.
In fact, outside of Jose Altuve and Colby Rasmus, the majority of this team has seen a solid decline in price over the previous 10 days, making them a bit more affordable today against the middling Derek Holland.
We’re working off an incredibly small sample size with Holland, but between his 12 appearances between both last season and the current one, he has surrendered 12 home runs, 11 of which have been hit by righties. Of the current projected starters, six of the top seven in the lineup order hit right-handed, making this a potentially big spot for this lineup.
Targeting a combination of the top five of this lineup and paying particular attention to Altuve, George Springer and Correa — all of whom have solid wOBA splits — should provide plenty of upside at what is likely to be very manageable ownership levels.
One note: the line on this game has been moving as I type, as Houston’s projected run total has increased and they’ve become a small favorite. This is worth monitoring throughout the day by visiting our free Lineups page and clicking on the team you’d like to view.
Good luck tonight!
