Today’s MLB games begin at 12:35pm ET. There are four day games and an 11-game main slate at 7:05pm. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
There are three aces at $10,800 on FanDuel: David Price, Noah Syndergaard, and Carlos Carrasco. The Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg sits right under them at $10,200. They’re currently the top-four players in the CSURAM88 Player Model, so let’s start by analyzing them.
Boston lefty David Price faces a Padres team currently implied by Vegas for 3.0 runs. He’s been in great form lately, hitting salary-based expectations in his last five starts. His recent advanced stats align with his results: He’s allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of 85 miles per hour and a hard-hit rate of 29 percent. He does have a low K Prediction — his 6.4 mark is right around average among pitchers today — but he’s at a pitcher’s park (Park Factor of 85) and he’s a massive -230 favorite.
Noah Syndergaard is on the road facing a Reds team currently implied for 3.6 runs. He’s been up and down lately:
However, his advanced stats suggest that he’s in great form right now: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 189 feet, an exit velocity of 87 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 22 percent. His 8.5 K Prediction is the third-best mark today. Thor will likely be lower-owned than Price given the latter’s superior matchup — the Padres own the worst team Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) in the slate at .275 — but Thor has been in just as good of form lately and has arguably higher upside.
Indians righty Carlos Carrasco faces an Astros team currently implied for 3.7 runs. He’s coming off a gem in his last start, in which he struck out 11 batters in 7.1 innings while allowing zero runs — a 67-point FD outing. You’d expect his advanced stats to be as elite as Price’s and Thor’s given his recent success, but there are some concerning marks: He’s allowed a 91 MPH exit velocity and a 37 percent hard-hit rate. Those aren’t awful marks, but they’re not as good as those belonging to the other two guys. Carrasco’s 7.9 K Prediction is fourth-best in the slate.
Stephen Strasburg faces a Braves team currently implied for 3.2 runs. He’s returning from the Disabled List today; he’s been there since August 21st with a right elbow issue. In his last game, he was crushed at Coors Field by the Rockies: He allowed nine earned runs in just 1.2 innings of work — a negative 13-point FD outing. Ouch. Because of his DL stay, we don’t have any recent advanced stats to analyze for Strasburg — just his Vegas data and K Prediction, which is the second-highest in the slate at 8.7. He’s cheaper than the guys listed above, but he also carries significant risk because of the elbow issues.
Jumping down in price: Baltimore righty Dylan Bundy is facing a Rays team currently implied for 3.9 runs. He’s been solid lately, hitting salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games for an average Plus/Minus of +7.80. His advanced stats are elite: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 175 feet, an exit velocity of 85 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 11 percent. There haven’t been many pitchers historically with those marks, which is interesting in its own right:
The one issue with Bundy is his innings average: In his last 10 starts, he’s averaged only 5.08 innings. He’s an intriguing cheap pivot from the expensive aces, but his low innings count could limit his upside.
Cubs lefty Mike Montgomery is a guy who floats in and out of the rotation but is getting his fourth-straight start. He’s facing the Brewers, who are currently implied for 4.2 runs. His advanced stats are pretty interesting: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of only 168 feet and a fly-ball rate of nine percent, but he’s allowed an exit velocity of 92 MPH. In short, he’s not allowing a ton of dangerous fly balls, but he is allowing a ton of hard grounders. This matchup isn’t ideal, but Montgomery is cheap — he’s near the minimum price on DK at $4,300 — and he has a high 7.2 K Prediction.
Royals lefty Danny Duffy faces a Twins team currently implied for 4.2 runs. He’s struggled his last two games, allowing 11 earned runs in 10.2 combined innings. His advanced stats are equally concerning: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 234 feet, an exit velocity of 92 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 37 percent in those two starts. However, he does have incredible upside, as highlighted by his slate-best 9.0 K Prediction. He’s at an interesting price point relative to the aces listed at the top: He’s $9,900 on DK and $9,600 on FD. He’s a guy with as much upside as any pitcher but will likely be quite low-owned.
The last guy I’ll mention is Dodgers righty Brock Stewart, who is facing a Diamondbacks team currently implied for 3.7 runs. He had a great outing last game in just his third start of the season, striking out eight Cubs and allowing zero runs in five innings of work. He has a very small sample of data, but we do know that he’s incredibly cheap on DraftKings at $4,500 and in a solid matchup versus Arizona.
Stacks
Coors Field always dominates the Stacking tool. The top-rated five-man stack on DK is a straight 1-2-3-4-5 Rockies stack. That’s boring. Let’s eliminate Coors for now and talk about some other teams.
If we take the Rockies and Giants out of consideration, the highest-rated five-man stack is a 1-2-3-4-6 stack of the Blue Jays:
Toronto faces Yankees righty Bryan Mitchell, who owns the slate’s worst HR/9 mark at 3.913. The Blue Jays are currently implied for 5.1 runs.
On FanDuel, the top-rated four-man stack (taking away the Rockies, Giants, and Blue Jays now) is a 1-2-3-5 stack of the Cubs:
The Cubs are currently implied for 4.9 runs.
Batters
Jonathan Villar is projected to bat leadoff for a Brewers team implied for 4.2 runs. He doesn’t have extreme splits versus either hand: He has a .393 wOBA, .195 Isolated Power (ISO), and .519 slugging percentage in the last year against lefties. He’s been hitting the ball well lately: He has a batted-ball distance of 225 feet, an exit velocity of 91 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 45 percent in his last 11 games. What makes Villar really intriguing, however, is his stolen base upside: He leads all players with a .372 SB/G mark.
White Sox outfielder Adam Eaton doesn’t have amazing splits versus righties: He has a .338 wOBA, .150 ISO, and .426 slugging percentage in the last year. His advanced stats are solid: He has a batted-ball distance of 220 feet and a fly-ball rate of 38 percent in his last 13 games. However, he’s only $3,000 on FD and is projected to bat leadoff for a team currently implied for 4.8 runs. That’s just too cheap.
Mike Trout does have elite splits versus pretty much everyone in the world: He has a .429 wOBA, .280 ISO, and .600 slugging percentage in the last year against fellow righties. He’s also been absolutely destroying the ball lately: He has a batted-ball distance of 241 feet, an exit velocity of 98 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 57 percent in his last 10 games. The best player in baseball is currently on a heater; that’s probably something you want to take note of.
Mookie Betts is a no-splits guy and hits righties well: He has a .389 wOBA, .230 ISO, and .553 slugging percentage. He hasn’t been Trout-level, but he has been hitting the ball well lately: He has a batted-ball distance of 222 feet and a fly-ball rate of 44 percent in his last 12 games. He hasn’t hit salary-based expectations on FD in his past three games, but it has resulted in a price decrease. He’s now only $4,000 and projected to hit third for a Boston team currently implied for 4.6 runs.
Good luck today!
