Baseball starts early today with a 12:37pm ET all-day slate on FanDuel and a 1:45pm ET all-day slate on DraftKings. They both have 10-game main slates at 7:05pm. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
Giants lefty ace Madison Bumgarner is about as chalky as a DFS pitcher can get. He’s at home (Park Factor of 100) facing a Padres team that is currently implied by Vegas for 2.9 runs (lowest mark in the slate) and whose projected lineup owns a team Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) of .310 (fifth-lowest in the slate). His advanced stats have been solid lately: He’s allowed a hard-hit rate of 24 percent in his last two starts. Home plate umpire Ryan Blakney is calling balls and strikes: He’s historically added 1.6 points over expectations to FD pitchers (per our Plus/Minus metric). Finally, Bumgarner boasts the day’s highest K Prediction at 9.7.
Again: He’s as chalky as it gets.
For Clayton Kershaw’s last game, I wrote that he’s just impossible to use in DFS given how the Dodgers will treat him until the playoffs. I hope you listened, as he pitched only three innings in his first start back. As much as it pains me to talk negatively about Kershaw, he’s a player to fade again today. From Dodgers manager Dave Roberts yesterday: “It was good to get him in the rotation and pitch, but I think for us the bigger question was how would he respond the days following and outside of regular game soreness, he felt good. He’s going to make his start and we’re going to monitor inning by inning.” Kersh has great marks, but it’s unlikely he’ll pitch enough to warrant his high price tag.
Marlins righty Jose Fernandez faces a Braves team currently implied for 3.2 runs. He’s coming off a gem in which he struck out 14 batters and allowed zero runs in seven innings of work — a 75-point FD outing. However, because the game prior was ugly — six runs and 12 hits in only 5.2 innings — his advanced stats aren’t great. He’s allowed an average batted-ball distance of 226 feet, an exit velocity of 93 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 40 percent. However, given his excellent outing, I’m less worried about those marks as an indicator of something wrong. He certainly has upside: His 9.1 K Prediction is third, behind Bum’s and Kershaw’s marks.
Cubs lefty Jon Lester faces a rival Cardinals team currently implied for 3.5 runs. Lester has been elite lately:
And his advanced stats match: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 181 feet, an exit velocity of 88 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 21 percent in his last two starts. However, his matchup is tougher than Bum’s, Kershaw’s, and Jose’s, and his K Prediction of 7.1, while fourth-best today, is a full two Ks lower than any of theirs. The good news is that you get a salary discount — he’s $11,100 on DK and $10,000 on FD — and you’ll likely get an ownership discount, as well.
Toronto righty Marco Estrada faces a Rays team currently implied for 3.9 runs. Things have been ugly for him recently:
However, his advanced stats suggest that things aren’t as dire as that graph indicates. He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 198 feet, an exit velocity of 86 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 25 percent. Those aren’t marks of a struggling pitcher, despite what the results say. The Rays own the second-highest SO/AB rate (.282) in the slate, and Estrada has a 6.8 K Prediction. This is an intriguing spot, as he holds upside and will likely be low-owned given his recent poor results.
Royals righty Yordano Ventura faces an Oakland team currently implied for 3.5 runs. Obligatory pitchers-versus-Oakland picture incoming . . .
Ventura is similar to Estrada in that his advanced stats are excellent even with a subpar recent performance. Despite allowing 10 hits to the White Sox last game, he’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 181 feet, an exit velocity of 86 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 27 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 14 percent. He doesn’t have much strikeout upside: His K Prediction of 4.7 is one of the lower marks of the slate. He’s much cheaper on DraftKings: $6,600 with a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
The last pitcher I’ll mention is Cardinals righty Carlos Martinez, who faces a Cubs team currently implied for 4.1 runs. Martinez was the chalk in his last outing against a Brewers team with a sky-high K rate, but he actually disappointed: He allowed only two runs in seven innings pitched, but he had only one strikeout. Still, his advanced stats have been solid: He’s induced ground balls at a 61 percent clip in his last two starts. This is a tough matchup against the best team in baseball, but Martinez does boast a 6.4 K Prediction and will be very low-owned going up against Lester.
Stacks
The Diamondbacks owned all of the top stacks yesterday and came through, scoring the most runs of the night (11). They’re implied for a slate-high 5.8 runs today and predictably take many of the top stacks. Here’s the top five-man DK stack per the CSURAM88 Model:
After Arizona, the top four-man FD stack is a 1-3-4-5 stack of the Nationals:
Washington is currently implied for 5.0 runs.
Batters
Second baseman Devon Travis is currently projected to bat leadoff for a Blue Jays team implied for 4.9 runs. He has really solid splits versus fellow righties: He has a .371 wOBA, .190 Isolated Power (ISO), and .512 slugging percentage in the last year. His advanced stats haven’t been great lately — he has a ground-ball rate of 56 percent in his last 12 games — but he’s a price-and-situation play: He’s $3,400 on FD (the 12:37pm ET Rays-Blue Jays game isn’t on DK), and he’s batting first for a high-implied team.
Josh Bell is currently projected to bat second for a Pirates team implied for 4.5 runs. He’s a switch-hitter but has much better splits versus righties: He has a .388 wOBA, .175 ISO, and .474 slugging percentage against them in the last year. He’s a better bargain on FD — he’s $2,600 there and has a 70 percent Bargain Rating — but he has dual eligibility (1B/OF) on DraftKings. We’ve talked before here at Labs about how to use dual eligibility as a way to create unique tournament lineups.
Nolan Arenado has historically been owned in 13.6 percent of FD contests at home and only 6.9 percent of contests on the road. Such is the DFS life of a Rockies player. This disparity in ownership splits is potentially a big edge, as Arenado is an excellent player anywhere: He has a .387 wOBA, .286 ISO, and .584 slugging percentage against fellow righties in the last year. Arenado’s been crushing the ball lately: He has a batted-ball distance of 215 feet, an exit velocity of 94 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 41 percent in his last 13 games. Enjoy him at low ownership tonight.
Speaking of crushing lately: Miguel Cabrera has excellent advanced stats. He has averaged a batted-ball distance of 231 feet, an exit velocity of 94 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 45 percent in his last 10 games. Like most elite batters, he’s a no-splits guy: He has a .386 wOBA, .229 ISO, and .540 slugging percentage against fellow righties in the last year. He’s projected to bat in his usual third spot for a Tigers team currently implied for 5.4 runs.
Jose Altuve is projected to bat third for an Astros team currently implied for 4.7 runs. He’s another no-splits guy and crushes all pitchers: He has a .409 wOBA, .233 ISO, and .563 slugging percentage in the last year versus lefties. His advanced stats are a bit down lately, but he has two home runs in his last three games and faces Rangers pitcher Derek Holland, who owns the fifth-worst WHIP in the slate at 1.536.
Good luck today!
