Again, you’re either Max Kepler or you’re not.
Today brings us 15 baseball games — three day games starting at 2:20 pm ET and 12 in the 7:05 pm ET main slate. Because the early slate is so small, we’ll break everything down together.
Pitchers
Max Scherzer is clearly the class of today’s pitching options. He faces the Diamondbacks, who are currently implied to score 3.3 runs, he’s a massive -237 moneyline favorite, and his 9.4 K Prediction is nearly two strikeouts more than that of the next pitcher. You can probably imagine the historical prowess of pitchers with these marks, but in case you want actual data here you go (courtesy of our Trends tool):
Whew. Scherzer isn’t the big fish in this pond: He’s the freaking Loch Ness Monster.
Brewers righty Junior Guerra is definitely intriguing today: The opposing Padres aren’t currently implied to score a lot of runs (3.7), and he’s coming off an excellent 50-point outing on FanDuel. His excellent recent form has shown up in his advanced stats as well, as he has allowed a batted-ball distance of only 182 feet in his last three starts. He’s not a strikeout guy — his K Prediction is a mediocre 6.4 — but he does boast an excellent WHIP of 1.069 and is in a great pitcher’s park in San Diego tonight.
Speaking of great pitching parks: Jake Odorizzi faces the Royals at home tonight. Kansas City is currently implied to score a slate-low 3.2 runs and has been in a slump lately, scoring no more than three runs in any of their last six games. Much like Guerra, Odorizzi doesn’t boast strikeout upside, but what you are getting is a pitcher in amazing form right now: He has allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of 87 miles per hour and a silly-low hard-hit rate of 19 percent in his last two starts. He’s a better value at FanDuel ($8,700) than DraftKings ($9,100), but he’s certainly viable at both sites.
If you prefer a bigger name at the same price on FanDuel and just $200 more on DraftKings, John Lackey definitely has his merits today. He faces the Marlins, who are currently implied to score 3.5 runs — and because the Cubs are implied for 5.1 runs, Lackey is a large -206 favorite. Simply hitting that -200 moneyline threshold leads to immense value, especially on FanDuel.
Lackey has also been solid lately, allowing an exit velocity of only 88 miles per hour in his last two affairs. Like Guerra and Odorizzi, Lackey has a K Prediction (6.6) that isn’t amazing compared to what we usually see on most slates, but it’s actually sixth-best today.
I know, I know — let’s get to some more main slate pitchers.
Johnny Cueto isn’t pitching at home tonight — San Francisco boasts the best pitcher’s park in the league — but he does get to face the Phillies, whose projected lineup has a low Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) of .287. It will certainly be interesting to see Cueto’s ownership levels tonight after the Phillies put up 13 runs last night and burned everyone who went heavy on Madison Bumgarner. Vegas is seemingly a believer in Cueto, as they’re currently projecting the Phillies for 3.3 runs. He’s coming off a subpar performance, but it was against the Nationals and his advanced stats are still solid: He’s allowed a hard-hit rate of 24 percent in his last two outings.
The Detroit-White Sox game brings two interesting pitchers tonight: Michael Fulmer and Chris Sale. Fulmer is actually the favorite here as Vegas currently projects this game at 4.2-3.9 in Detroit’s favor. Fulmer hasn’t put up amazing numbers lately, but he did go almost eight innings against the Red Sox last start — an amazing feat, to be honest — and he has induced ground balls at a 59 percent clip in his last two starts. His 6.5 K Prediction is normally average but in this slate is actually top-10.
Sale is perhaps the most volatile pitcher in DFS right now. He might strike out 16 batters. Or he might rip off his jersey while standing on the mound. There’s probably too much bias going around regarding Sale. His last outing wasn’t great, but it was against the Cubs and he allowed only two runs. Further, he has allowed a recent batted-ball distance of 180 feet and an exit velocity of 85 MPH — two of the best marks in this slate. He’s not highly rated in the Player Models because of the Tigers’ implied run total, but his 7.1 K Prediction — second-best in the main slate behind Chad Green‘s — shows his upside.
Stacks
I’m feeling nice today, so I’ll give you an early DraftKings stack and a main slate one.
In the early slate, a five-man stack of the Cubs is the highest-rated one in the Bales Model currently:
The main slate brings us Coors Field again, so naturally one of those teams — today it’s the Rockies — takes the top-rated stack:
On FanDuel, the top three stacks belong to the Rockies — I mean, they’re implied to score 5.9 runs currently. But if you’re #TeamFadeCoors, the same Indians stack that we’ve seen several days in a row still might intrigue you:
Batters
Despite the Coors Field game, Stephen Piscotty — projected to bat leadoff for the Cardinals tonight — is actually the highest-rated FD batter in the Bales Model currently. He certainly hasn’t lit the world on fire lately, but his long-term marks — a .437 wOBA, .275 Isolated Power (ISO), and .601 slugging percentage — are elite for a leadoff batter priced at only $3,500.
Another projected leadoff guy, John Jaso, is currently the highest-rated DK batter in the Bales Model. I know, he’s terrifying to roster right now. Just look at his recent form:
However, if he does bat first for a Pirates team currently implied to score 4.6 runs, he’ll have ample opportunity to return the little value needed for his low $2,400 price tag. He also boasts 13 DK Pro Trends, tied with Jason Kipnis for the most today.
Daniel Murphy is in the early slate, but it’s hard not to mention his hot bat: He has had five hits and batted in three runs in his last two outings, and he has an excellent batted-ball distance of 241 feet in his last 11 games. He’s projected to bat third for a Nationals team currently implied to score 5.3 runs against the Diamondbacks. He has a .406 wOBA, .258 ISO, and .594 slugging percentage versus righties in the last year.
Justin Smoak is projected to bat seventh for the Blue Jays tonight. They face Astros righty Colin McHugh, who got absolutely rocked last game, allowing 10 hits and eight earned runs in just 1.2 innings pitched. If you’re tracking at home, that’s an outing ‘worth’ -16 FanDuel points. Smoak is a late-order guy with a lot of power: His .237 ISO is a mark rarely seen at the seventh spot. Further, he’s especially intriguing for tournaments, as his 1B eligibility conflicts with Edwin Encarnacion’s. You can roster only one of them. As we’ve seen in the David Ortiz–Hanley Ramirez dynamic, the one later in the batting order usually sees a massive dip in ownership.
Good luck today!
