Today brings us a split slate: Five day games beginning early at 12:35 pm ET and 10 in the 7:05 pm ET main slate. Let’s dive in.
Pitchers
Marlins righty ace Jose Fernandez has really struggled lately — he has missed salary-based expectations in four straight starts — but Vegas doesn’t seem to be worried at all. The opposing Royals are currently implied for a slate-low 2.8 runs and the Marlins are massive -213 moneyline favorites. He’s pitching at home, which gives him a nice 91 Park Factor, and his 10.2 K Prediction dominates the slate — it’s 1.4 Ks higher than that of any other pitcher. What else could you want from a pitcher?
The issue is his recent form, which is concerning both in results and per his advanced stats: In his last start, he allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, a line-drive rate of 64 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 57 percent. Those are awful marks and shows the potential risk of Fernandez tonight. Still, his ceiling is immensely high.
As a result of Fernandez’s concerns, Cubs righty Kyle Hendricks is perhaps the best cash-game value on the board today. He faces the Padres, who are currently implied for 3.1 runs. The Cubs are huge favorites at -252. Pitchers on FD who hit that mark have historically been very valuable:
And unlike Fernandez, Hendricks has excellent advanced stats recently: He has allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of 86 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 18 percent in his last two outings. His 7.3 K Prediction is fourth-highest today. Basically, he has just been crushing value lately and is in another great spot:
Rangers righty Yu Darvish faces the Reds, who are currently implied for 3.7 runs — not a bad number, but a bit higher than the implied totals of teams facing other, cheaper guys around him like Hendricks and Rich Hill. However, what Darvish does boast is huge strikeout potential: While his 8.8 K Prediction is a bit lower than Jose’s, it is much higher than any other pitcher’s today. He has some concerning recent advanced stats — he has allowed a batted-ball distance of 234 feet and a fly-ball rate of 47 percent in his last two starts — but given his price point and upside, it’s probably wise to focus on him in guaranteed prize pools anyway.
Speaking of Hill: He faces the Giants, who are currently implied for 3.3 runs. This will be his first start for the Dodgers. He was traded to Los Angeles a month ago but hasn’t debuted due to a blister. This year he has been excellent, providing an average Plus/Minus of +8.19 in 14 starts. Unfortunately, this is a tough matchup for a strikeout pitcher: Although his 10.946 SO/9 is a great mark, the Giants have the second-lowest SO/AB rate in the slate at .192. As a result, his 6.2 K Prediction is lower than one would expect from him.
Pirates righty Gerrit Cole faces an Astros team currently implied for 3.5 runs, and he gets them at home, where he has a slate-best 93 Park Factor. His advanced stats are intriguing: Although he has allowed a batted-ball distance of only 171 feet in his last two games, his 38 percent hard-hit rate allowed isn’t ideal. He has been inducing ground balls (48 percent) but batters have hit them hard. That historically hasn’t been good for pitchers, per a recent Trend of the Day. His 5.9 K Prediction is very average.
Rick Porcello and Trevor Bauer are in similar spots: They’re both on the road facing teams currently implied to score 3.7 runs. They’re similar favorites at -142 and -138. They’re in similar recent form as well: They’ve allowed hard-hit rates of 33 and 30 percent in their last three games. Bauer has induced slightly more ground balls (58 vs. 49 percent), while Porcello has a slightly higher K Prediction (5.8 vs. 5.3). Really, the biggest difference is price, as Porcello is $600 more on DK and $1,200 more on FD. They’re both probably very overpriced on DK, though: Porcello is $11,900 and Bauer is $11,300.
Speaking of site pricing: Mets righty Jacob deGrom is $9,800 on FD and only $9,100 on DK. He faces a Cardinals team currently implied for 3.9 runs. Because of the Mets’ poor offense lately, he’s actually a +108 underdog right now, but we know that being a dog is less damaging on DK than FD, where he’s a better value, anyway. Last game he ‘scored’ -3.15 DK points against the Giants, but his advanced stats remain positive: He has allowed an exit velocity of 87 miles per hour and a hard-hit rate of 24 percent in his last two outings. He’s risky but could be a nice contrarian SP2 option on DK.
On the other side of this matchup is Carlos Martinez, who is in great recent form per his advanced stats: He has allowed a batted-ball distance of 169 feet, an exit velocity of 86 MPH, a hard-hit rate of 25 percent, and a 58 percent ground-ball rate. In a decent historical sample, pitchers with those marks have done quite well on DraftKings:
He is $9,200 on DK and the Mets are currently implied for 3.7 runs.
There are a ton of other viable pitching options today. In fact, a whopping 16 of the 30 teams are currently implied for no more than four runs today. Guys like Hisashi Iwakuma, Tanner Roark, Johnny Cueto, and Zack Greinke didn’t quite make the cut for inclusion in The Breakdown, but they are certainly options for GPPs. Because of the depth of pitching today, tournament exposure should definitely be spread out quite a bit.
Stacks
The top-rated five-man DK stack in the Bales Model currently belongs to the Phillies:
It’s an odd stack, taking the 1-2-5-7-9 hitters, but one that is obviously highly-rated and would be very low-owned. The Phillies are among a group of teams currently implied to score 4.8 runs today — a mark only behind the Cubs’ leading 5.0.
Interestingly, the top six four-man stacks for FD are all Phillies stacks currently. They’re relatively cheap and implied for a lot of runs. Our Team Value Rating metric helps visualize this, and the Phillies currently have an excellent 80 TVR on FD.
If we eliminate the Phillies, the Cubs have the highest-rated FD stack:
Batters
Both Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth — projected to bat seventh and second for the Nationals — are intriguing plays today. They both have silly-high splits versus lefties: Zimmerman has a .411 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), .358 Isolated Power (ISO), and .642 slugging percentage over the last year, and Werth has a .462 wOBA, .326 ISO, and .674 slugging percentage in that time. The Nationals are currently implied for 4.8 runs and face Wade Miley, who has a poor 1.456 WHIP in the last year. But more importantly — nay, most importantly for today’s slate of MLB DFS — the Nationals have a sports god joining them today:
Seriously pumped @katieledecky is throwing out tonight’s first pitch. Get to #Nats Park by 6:40pm to see it! pic.twitter.com/okakMJAivi
— Amanda Comak (@acomak) August 24, 2016
I don’t know why you would play batters other than the Nationals now, but I guess you need guys to fill in around their stacks. Alas, we’ll continue with a couple more batters.
Twins second baseman Brian Dozier has awesome splits versus lefties: He boasts a .394 wOBA, .316 ISO, and .579 slugging percentage in the last year. He has been crushing the ball lately, as shown by his 229-foot batted-ball distance, 93 MPH exit velocity, 50 percent fly-ball rate, and 37 percent hard-hit rate in his last 12 games. He faces Tigers lefty Matt Boyd, who has a 1.924 HR/9 allowed in the last year — the third-worst mark in today’s slate.
David Ortiz versus a righty . . . check. Considering how often he goes up against RHP, it’s ridiculous that he has these splits at 40-years-old: He has a .454 wOBA, .372 ISO, and .696 slugging percentage in the last year. He has been crushing lately, too: He has a batted-ball distance of 246 feet, an exit velocity of 96 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 58 percent. The dude could crush RHP when he’s a great-grandfather.
Catcher is always a tough position to fill, but Jonathan Lucroy remains one of the best options on a nightly basis. He’s a no-splits guy: He has a .392 wOBA, .224 ISO, and .545 slugging percentage in the last year against right-handed pitchers. He’s projected to bat fifth for a Rangers team currently implied for 4.6 runs. He has hit a ton of fly balls lately (59 percent), although his exit velocity (88 MPH) has been a bit down. The Rangers-Reds affair currently has a 68 percent chance of precipitation, which means that he could go underowned in tournaments.
Good luck today!
