Today we have multiple substantial slates, with more than half the games scheduled for the afternoon. DraftKings starts its slates at 1:10 PM ET while FanDuel starts at 12:35 PM to include the early Braves-Reds game. We’ll break down each slate — early (before 7:05 PM) and main (7:05 PM and later) — and we’ll include that FD-only game in the analysis.
Early
Pitchers
King Felix Hernandez returns to his throne today and currently sits as the top-rated pitcher at both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has been out since late May with a calf strain, so there is a bit of risk with him. However, Vegas believes in him (at least relative to the other options), as the opposing White Sox are currently implied to score the fewest runs all day at 3.5. He is also the biggest favorite currently, with a -175 moneyline. He has a very low K Prediction given his high price and we have no recent advanced data to work with given his extended absence, so this is purely a Vegas-based play.
Justin Verlander, on the other hand, has many factors in his favor. Although Hernandez has the better matchup — Verlander is facing the Twins, who have an implied total of 3.9 runs — the Tigers pitcher has the slate’s highest year-long FD Consistency mark, hitting salary-based expectations in 72 percent of his contests. And he hasn’t just been meeting expectations: He has been destroying them, as shown by his season-long average Plus/Minus of +8.0. In his last start, he struck out 10 Royals and gave up only one earned run and four hits in seven innings. That doesn’t happen often against KC.
Speaking of Kansas City: The Royals face Carlos Carrasco today. Carrasco actually boasts the best WHIP (1.017) and second-best SO/9 rate (10.082) in this slate, but the Royals are implied to score 4.0 runs currently, which isn’t a great total given Carrasco’s salary. Even still, Carrasco is a decent favorite with a -135 moneyline, and he has induced ground balls at a 58 percent clip in his last two games, an excellent mark. Additionally, he has Ryan Blakney as the umpire behind home plate, who has historically added an extra +1.1 Plus/Minus to pitchers.
The last guy we’ll mention in the early slate is Kyle Hendricks, who could vault up the model ratings depending on the Cubs-Mets Vegas numbers — those come out late for Chicago series because of the wind. The matchup isn’t completely ideal — the Mets’ projected lineup has a .305 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) — but his good 1.127 WHIP can deal with that. He has great recent advanced stats lately, allowing only a 20 percent hard-hit rate and exactly zero line drives.
Stack
Here is the top-rated FanDuel stack for the early slate on the Bales Model:
For the first time this series, a Rays stack (currently) sits as the top-rated one. It’ll certainly cost you in terms of salary — the four players combine for $16,100 — but it also might have sparse ownership compared to more traditional 1-4 stacks of either team. Simply skipping to Curt Casali, projected to hit in the eighth spot, will make this lineup unique.
Other Hitters
Other than the obvious Rockies and Rays guys, Jason Kipnis stands out for an Indians team currently projected to score 4.5 runs. They face Royals righty Ian Kennedy, who has allowed the highest HR/9 rate of any early-slate pitcher at 1.607. Kipnis has a .359 wOBA, .199 Isolated Power (ISO), and .487 slugging percentage against righties — solid numbers — but perhaps more important is his recent hard-hit rate, which sits at a great 45 percent. On top of that, he has at least nine Pro Trends on both sites.
Robinson Cano is definitely a much better value at FanDuel: He is a reasonable $3,600 there, as opposed to $5,000 at DraftKings. That difference gives him a 97 FD Bargain Rating. He definitely has elite hitting stats, as shown by his .412 wOBA, .249 ISO, and .579 slugging percentage versus right-handed pitchers. He hasn’t been in great recent form, either by his results (he hasn’t scored more than 6.5 FD points in any of his last four games) or by his advanced stats (he has a 50 percent ground-ball rate in his last six games). However, going against Miguel Gonzalez and his awful 1.537 WHIP is the type of medicine that could cure all short-term batting ills.
Given Toronto’s high implied run total — 5.2 currently, just behind the Coors teams — it feels wrong not to mention a Blue Jay. Edwin Encarnacion has a .404 wOBA, .345 ISO, and .597 slugging percentage against lefties, and he gets a . . . not great one in Patrick Corbin. Poor Patrick has a 1.469 WHIP and 1.239 HR/9 rate — both awful marks. The problem with Encarnacion is his pricing: The Blue Jays are just as expensive, if not more, than most high-upside Coors players.
Main
Pitchers
The pitching in the seven-game main slate is pretty difficult to navigate, but we’ll try our best.
Jaime Garcia doesn’t have an elite WHIP (1.294) or SO/9 rate (7.472). However, because he’s facing the lowly Padres, he has a bunch of upside, as shown by his (sort of [but not] really high) K Prediction of 7.2, tied with Bud Norris for the best mark in the slate. Perhaps the most important thing for Garcia is his Vegas data: The Padres are implied to score only 3.6 runs currently, and Garcia is tied as the biggest favorite with a -185 moneyline.
Drew Pomeranz has a much higher SO/9 rate (10.891) than Garcia, yet he has a lower K Prediction (6.7). This is because he’s facing the Giants, who own a low SO/AB rate of .228. Pomeranz is a large favorite (tied with Garcia at -185 currently), even though the Giants are implied to score 4.5 runs. He has allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of only 85 miles per hour recently, a mark that has historically been incredibly valuable for pitchers.
Gio Gonzalez is another pitcher with a high SO/9 rate but low K Prediction. Tonight he faces the Dodgers, who are currently implied to score 4.2 runs. And the bad news keeps coming: He has allowed a recent hard-hit rate of 51 percent and gets behind the plate Quinn Wolcott, who has an umpire Plus/Minus of -1.1. If you’re looking for a bright spot, Gonzalez is a favorite at -150, but he looks like a very solid fade candidate tonight.
Michael Pineda is the ultimate tournament pitcher. Although he has missed salary-based expectations in his last two games, his advanced stats have been incredible: He has allowed a hard-hit rate of only eight percent and a batted-ball distance of only 182 feet. The opposing Orioles are projected to score 4.3 runs, but Pineda is cheap and his advanced stats indicate that he has great stuff right now.
Stack
Here is the top-rated Bales Model stack on DraftKings for the main slate:
#LeftiesAtYankeeStadium
A projected 1-2-3-4-6 Yankees stack includes all lefties, who happen to have the best Park Factor in the slate. By the way, the Yankees face Baltimore righty Yovani Gallardo, who has a 3.3 K Prediction. Yup, you read that right. There’s a non-zero chance that Editor-in-Chief Matt Freedman could strike out more batters.
Other Hitters
Matt Adams is currently the top-rated main slate hitter in the DK Bales Model. He faces a righty, which means that he’s on the right side of his splits, giving him a .333 wOBA, .213 ISO, and .467 slugging percentage. He also has a so-unreal-it-looks-unreal recent batted-ball distance of 297 feet. Interestingly, the Plus/Minus of hitters like that is almost zero. However, that could be due to the small sample size.
For the last two games, Chris Davis has been out of the lineup due to an illness, but he should be back in his typical cleanup spot for the Orioles tonight. We know that he crushes righties — his .428 wOBA, .365 ISO, and .632 slugging percentage suggest as much — so his $3,600 price tag at DK seems a little odd. He matches up against Pineda’s great advanced stats, but he’s also batting is in a great park for lefties.
Apparently we’re talking all lefties here, because Jackie Bradley is up. He’s projected to hit sixth for the Red Sox, who are projected to score a million runs — 6.2 is the current number, but it’s OK to round up in this instance. Matt Cain, pitching tonight for the Giants, has an awful 1.563 WHIP and 6.169 SO/9 rate. Bradley has a lot of upside, as do the the rest of his Boston teammates.
Good luck!
