The Price is Wrong
David Price and Max Scherzer are pitching in separate slates, which means that you’re not forced to choose between them if you’re playing this morning and tonight. You might even be able to afford both at DraftKings in the all-day slate. Let’s take a closer look at them.
In the last two weeks, Scherzer has allowed a batted-ball distance 30 feet farther than that of his yearly average. It’s one thing if those opponents roughing him up recently were the Red Sox and Cubs, but they were the Padres and Brewers, both of which have bottom-four strikeout rates against righties. Scherzer’s mark of 1.60 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) allowed in the past year is also astronomical for a top pitcher. Fortunately, the Mets have a slate-low .257 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), which would be only worse if Curtis Granderson (questionable) were ruled out.
As for Price, his recent velocity decrease of 1.3 miles per hour on his fastball is more concerning than his most recent performance against the Rangers. As noted by Bill Monighetti, high-velocity pitchers who lose at least one MPH in recent fastball velocity suffer from a -1.36 Plus/Minus at DraftKings. The Rays strike out more than most teams in the early slate — .281 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB) — but Price’s Velocity Differential is enough to keep me worrying.
Not At the Table, Carlos
Danny Salazar has averaged 24.1 DraftKings points over the last month. In that same span, Carlos Martinez has quietly averaged only 23.9 DraftKings points. One thing: Salazar’s performance has obviously been noticed, since he has seen a +$3,600 Salary Change at DraftKings over that time. Martinez, on the other hand, actually costs $800 less than he did in his last start. Just look at his recent advanced stats and you’ll wonder why that’s the case.
No pitcher in this slate has allowed a lower batted-ball distance than that of Martinez over the last 15 days. He has also allowed a hard-hit rate 17 percentage points lower than his yearly average in that span. Martinez’s peripherals could make him a nice pivot play away Price and Scherzer today.
Not Bunker or Manning
Archie Bradley was activated from the DL at this time last month and has since flown under the radar. Note his 80 percent Consistency in the last month and his +6.66 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in six starts upon returning. Whatever the case, don’t let his recent Salary Change at DraftKings fool you. It only rose $2,800 from his last start because it had dropped $2,000 once he pitched at Coors Field.
Plus/Minus, Consistency, Salary Change, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Rating tool.
Coors, Again
Unlike last night, today will see two respectable pitchers actually face one another on the mound at Coors Field. For the Blue Jays, Aaron Sanchez has recorded double-digit DraftKings points in six of his last seven starts and at least 20 in three of his last five. More importantly, his salary has plummeted $5,000 since his last start. And, for the Rockies, this isn’t lefty Tyler Anderson’s first rodeo. He has pitched twice at Coors Field since debuting, allowing no home runs due in part to his 62 percent ground-ball rate.
Toronto has actually recorded a higher Isolated Power (ISO) against right-handed pitching this season, but look up and down the lineup and you’ll notice that only Devon Travis, Troy Tulowitzki, and Kevin Pillar have negative Differentials today. Still — yes, I’m about to regret saying something — between Sanchez’s recent performance and salary drop and Anderson’s consistency in prompting ground balls, I don’t think you need to force exposure here. In cash games, yes. And the early slate, maybe. But the all-day slate offers a few options with comparable potential.
Not the Cubs, Again
Ben Zobrist flourishes against lefties, as shown by his .511 slugging percentage against said handedness. That’s not the case for Chicago’s next three hitters (Jason Heyward, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo), as each have negative differentials against southpaws. Cody Reed’s 11.25 SO/9 for the Reds are a bit misleading, since he has started only two games, but the fact remains that he offers Upside against a team that, as we saw yesterday, occasionally struggles against lefties.
Reed has allowed at least four runs in both starts, so maybe temper your expectations.
The Marlins, Though
Daniel Norris, facing the Marlins today, is fresh off of a start in which he allowed the highest batted-ball distance among pitchers in the early slate. More concerning is that he’s a left-handed pitcher now set to pitch to the murderers’ row of Marcell Ozuna, who has a .747 slugging percentage against southpaws, and Giancarlo Stanton, who has averaged a +4.41 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over his last 10 games. Assuming that he hits second, even Martin Prado should be in consideration, given his .046 wOBA Differential.
And Jake Lamb
Whether he’s discounted or not (and he is at FanDuel, where he has a 98 percent Bargain Rating), Lamb’s .086 ISO Differential deserves attention anytime he’s facing a righty. That point has only been emphasized recently, since he has averaged a 256-foot batted-ball distance over the last 15 days. Lamb is tied with Nolan Arenado and Josh Donaldson for second among third basemen with a 94 MPH exit velocity.
Quick Hit(ter)s
Hanley Ramirez, BOS
Much was made about Ramirez during his recent cold streak, but that’s a thing of the past. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last seven starts, averaging a +4.93 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in that time. As for tonight, his .123 ISO Differential is top-four among first basemen.
Daniel Murphy, WSH
Murphy has a 75 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings, where he has exceeded expectations in three of his last five games. He’s also slugging .553 against right-handed pitching. In this case, said right-handed pitcher (Logan Verrett) in his last start allowed a batted-ball distance 19 feet farther than any pitcher today has recently allowed.
Brian Dozier, MIN
Over his last 10 games, Dozier has averaged an absurd +10.40 Plus/Minus at FanDuel. See for yourself:
More importantly, he now faces James Shields, who has allowed 1.53 HR/9 in the past year.
Jordy Mercer, PIT
Assuming Mercer continues leading off against lefties, his .159 ISO Differential and 87 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel make him an intriguing option. Wade Miley has also notably allowed 1.51 HR/9 this season.
Joey Rickard, BAL
Rickard is expected to hit second when the Orioles face left-handed pitching, which doesn’t put his .145 ISO Differential and .538 slugging percentage to waste at the back end of their lineup. His 10 Pro Trends are tied for the second-most among outfielders.
Good luck!
