Pitchers
Take a gander at the pitching options in this slate and your reaction is likely, “Who do I pay for — and can I afford to roster two of them on DraftKings?” This slate is atypical in that we have seven pitchers with salaries of at least $11,000. Let’s consider the pros and cons of each of them.
Clayton Kershaw, LAD
Pros: The Diamondbacks are projected with .278 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB), but if that number were lower would it matter? Of course not. Just look at Kershaw’s production over his last 10 starts:
In the past month, he has averaged 7.4 more DraftKings points than any other pitcher going tonight. And despite always being priced over $13,000, he has managed a 21-percent Upside this season. You’re obviously hoping that he meets salary-based expectations if you’re allocating $14,100 to him, but even his season-low score of 20.95 DraftKings points is a floor that most pitchers struggle to reach.
Cons: On DraftKings, he costs $14,100 and you still need one more pitcher and eight batters. Even if you roster a number of viable cheap hitters, you will likely still need to go with a cheap option as your No. 2 pitcher, such as . . .
- Drew Smyly, who is averaging 10.06 strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9) but faces the Mariners’ slate-high projected .370 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA);
- Hector Santiago, who has averaged only 1.6 DraftKings points over the last month and likely won’t capitalize on the Twins’ projected .319 SO/AB; or
- Bud Norris, who has somehow allowed a batted-ball distance 23 feet shorter than his yearly average in the last 15 days.
You know, someone who is both affordable and has Upside, but at the same time is absolutely terrifying to own.
Upside and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Johnny Cueto, SF
Pros: The Brewers’ projected .302 SO/AB is bottom-two among offenses tonight. More notable is that they’re implied to score the fewest runs in this slate and Cueto has received the largest percentage of moneyline bets tonight. As for his advanced stats, his exit velocity allowed of 87 miles per hour in the last 15 days is the same as Kershaw’s. In that same span, Cueto has also allowed a hard-hit rate 13 percentage points lower than his yearly average. As if you need more reasons to roster him, he leads the slate with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Cons: Cueto’s averaging only 7.11 SO/9, which begs the question of whether he actually has the ceiling of other pitchers in the slate. Additionally, even though he hasn’t had a Dud performance in his last five games, on DraftKings he still has a 21-percent Dud rate in the last year — 18 points higher than Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg’s.
Stephen Strasburg, WSH
Pros: Strasburg’s average of 11.93 SO/9 is the highest among pitchers tonight. A matchup with the Cubs might initially frighten most, but they have only a projected .289 wOBA, bottom-five in this slate. This season on DraftKings, Strasburg has an 80-percent Consistency, which is eight points higher than Kershaw’s and leads the position.
Cons: Despite their aforementioned wOBA, they’re still the Cubs, which means that they still have a .423 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching. They also lead the league with a 10.9-percent walk rate against said handedness. Strasburg’s WHIP is a respectable .934, but if in this game he doesn’t maintain his recent 52-percent strike rate then he could get into trouble.
Chris Sale, CWS
Pros: Note that the Tigers are projected with a .285 SO/AB tonight, which is more than either Kershaw or Strasburg can say about their matchups. Also, Sale’s nine Pro Trends on DraftKings are tied for second at the position. It’s one thing to look at Sale’s recent performance and fade him entirely, but it’s another to realize the benefits of owning him. After all, he’s a high-Upside pitcher who’s likely to garner very little ownership.
Cons: Still, we need to look at that recent performance. Of the pitchers discussed so far, Sale’s the only one to record any Dud performances in the past month. And he has done it in spectacular fashion, averaging a -11.38 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over his last four starts. And it’s not like those results were unwarranted: His 244-foot batted-ball distance allowed in the last two weeks is the highest among pitchers tonight. His 94-MPH exit velocity allowed in that span is also tied with that of Chad Bettis, who has averaged only 2.6 DraftKings points in his last five games. It would be one thing if there were a glimpse of hope, but that he has recently allowed a hard-hit rate 11 percentage points higher than his yearly average is worrisome.
Noah Syndergaard, NYM
Pros: Only Kershaw and Strasburg have a higher SO/9 than Syndergaard (10.75) tonight. He failed to meet salary-based expectations by 7.48 DraftKings points in his last outing against Pittsburgh, but it was technically the first time he didn’t meet his implied total in five consecutive starts. (“Technically,” since he was ejected after 2.1 innings against the Dodgers.) Also, see his +6.92 Plus/Minus at DraftKings when pitching at home, much better than his +0.59 on the road.
Cons: It really boils down to his matchup, which isn’t as ideal as others that we’ve already discussed. If you fade Kershaw (and that’s reasonable to do), then you’re looking for a pitcher who can produce similar results. And I’m not sure that Syndergaard has that potential, as the Pirates are projected with a lowly .238 SO/AB. It doesn’t help that he has achieved his Upside on DraftKings in only three percent of performances in the last year.
Corey Kluber, CLE
Pros: Kluber has received 81 percent of moneyline bets tonight, but you can forget about him at DraftKings, where he has seen a +$1,700 Salary Change since his last start. At FanDuel, however, Kluber has a 99-percent Bargain Rating. He has also allowed a batted-ball distance 17 feet shorter than his yearly average over the last 15 days.
Cons: The Royals strike out in only 19.8 percent of their at-bats against right-handed pitching, which makes you wonder about Kluber’s actual ceiling. He has averaged 45.8 FanDuel points over his last five games, but his 46-percent Consistency this season makes his cash viability uncertain.
Steven Wright, BOS
Pros: Wright’s 75-percent Consistency in the last year is actually three points higher than Kershaw’s. Furthermore, Wright is always underowned. That, despite the fact that he has reached his Upside in 31 percent of his starts. His average of 24.4 DraftKings points over the past month is more than respectable, even among the giants in this slate.
Cons: Wright just so happens to be pitching in a hitter-friendly park against an offense with a .204 Isolated Power (ISO), which is the highest mark against right-handed pitching in the slate.
Batters
No matter who you decide to roster at pitcher, an(y) affordable hitter will be one of relief. At least the following names can provide that.
James McCann, DET, C
McCann’s .520 slugging percentage trails only Welington Castillo’s (.617), Jarrod Saltalamacchia’s (.537), and A.J. Ellis’ (.522) among catchers. He has also recorded a batted-ball distance 30 feet farther than his yearly average over his last eight starts.
Tim Anderson, CWS, SS
Not only are Anderson’s 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings the highest among shortstops, but he’s also a rare leadoff hitter who costs the minimum.
Lonnie Chisenhall, CLE, OF
Chisenhall has negative differentials across the board versus right-handed pitching, but he’s still one of only four outfielders with double-digit Pro Trends tonight. Ian Kennedy’s 1.61 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) allowed in the past year is also bottom-three in this slate.
Enrique (Kiké) Hernandez, LAD, OF
Hernandez has a -0.77 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over his last 10 games, but his .247 and .262 wOBA and ISO Differentials against left-handed pitching are top-three at his position. His .696 slugging percentage against said handedness trails only Peter O’Brien’s in this slate.
Hyun-Soo Kim, BAL, OF
Despite going hitless in his last two starts, Kim has a .157 wOBA Differential versus right-handed pitching. He’s expected to start against Steven Wright tonight, so his matchup isn’t great, but he does have a 243-foot recent batted-ball distance that is top-10 among outfielders.
Jake Smolinski, OAK, OF
Derek Holland has allowed 1.43 HR/9 in the past year, which Smolinski should be able to leverage with his .672 slugging percentage. He also has a .225 wOBA Differential against southpaws.
Good luck!
