Today brings a regular ‘ol 15-game main slate at 7:05pm ET. We have a couple more days until NFL; let’s keep grinding some MLB DFS.
Pitchers
Indians righty Corey Kluber has produced great results lately:
However, his advanced stats show a couple blemishes: He’s allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of 91 miles per hour and a hard-hit rate of 42 percent in his last two games. Still, he is currently rated nearly 13 points higher in the CSURAM88 FanDuel Player Model than any other pitcher.
Kluber faces the Astros today, who are currently implied by Vegas for 3.5 runs; the Indians are large -200 moneyline favorites. Kluber’s K Prediction of 7.2 is the highest in the slate — which says a lot about this slate. Yesterday we had aces galore; today, Kluber is the clear cash option in a mediocre matchup.
Nationals lefty Gio Gonzalez faces a Braves team currently implied for 3.4 runs, the lowest mark today. Because the Nats are implied for 5.2 runs, they are massive -214 favorites. Pitchers with moneylines that high have been very valuable and consistent but also high-owned (per our Trends tool):
However, if you target a huge favorite with a low K Prediction — Gio’s sits at 5.2 right now — his Plus/Minus barely drops yet he historically sees a large decrease in ownership:
Cubs righty Jason Hammel faces a Brewers team currently implied for 3.9 runs. He’s been all over the place this month:
His recent advanced stats show problem areas: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 222 feet and an exit velocity of 92 MPH in his last two outings. However, he does have umpire Will Little behind home plate — he’s historically added 1.3 points over expectations to starting pitchers — and his 6.6 K Prediction is the third-best mark. He’s a GPP-only play, but honestly just about every pitcher today is a GPP-only play.
Clay Buckholz faces a Padres team currently implied for 3.7 runs. He’s really cheap on FanDuel at $6,000 and has solid advanced stats lately: He’s allowed an exit velocity of 89 MPH and has induced ground balls at a 53 percent rate in his last four starts. Behind home plate is umpire Bill Miller, who has historically added 2.2 points over expectations for starting pitchers. Buckholz’s 5.8 K Prediction isn’t amazing for a normal day, but this isn’t a normal pitching day: That mark ranks sixth in this slate. Buckholz’s way-too-cheap price tag will definitely elevate his ownership levels in tournaments.
Dodgers righty Ross Stripling has been pretty poor recently, hitting salary-based expectations in only one of his five starts this past month. However, he faces a Diamondbacks squad currently implied for 3.7 runs and the Dodgers are solid -177 favorites. And despite Stripling’s putrid results lately his advanced stats have surprisingly been OK: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 185 feet, a fly-ball rate of 28 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 24 percent. He’s near min price on DraftKings at $4,900 and will be a very popular SP2 option to pair with Kluber.
Toronto righty Aaron Sanchez is on the road tonight facing a Yankees team currently implied for 3.9 runs. The Blue Jays have been skipping some of Sanchez’s starts to limit his innings workload; he’s pitched only once in the past 15 days. That means his recent advanced stats represent just a single-game sample and they’re bad: He allowed a 92 MPH exit velocity in that game. Because of his low 5.7 K Prediction and the knowledge that Toronto is being careful with him, it’s hard to warrant paying $8,600 on FD — that’s $2,600 more than Buckholz and just $100 shy of both Gio and Hammel.
Seattle lefty James Paxton faces a Rangers team currently implied for 3.9 runs. His recent advanced stats are pretty average: He’s allowed an exit velocity of 90 MPH, a hard-hit rate of 34 percent, and has induced ground balls at a 50 percent rate. He gets a pitcher-friendly ump in Mike Muchlinski (+1.5 Plus/Minus on FD) and is at home; he’s been very good there this season in terms of Plus/Minus:
He’ll likely be low-owned, as most users will either pay up for Kluber/Gio/Hammel or pay down for Buckholz/Stripling.
Jake Odorizzi has been very good lately:
However, his price has continued to climb — he’s $9,800 on DK and $8,600 on FD — and he has a very tough matchup today. He faces the Orioles, who are currently implied for 4.1 runs and own the second-highest team Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) at .341. Odorizzi’s recent advanced stats have been pretty average: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 89 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 45 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 34 percent in his last two games. He will be very low-owned today given the matchup and price point.
Stacks
More Coors!
We’ll start with FanDuel today. As expected, the top-rated four-man stack belongs to the . . . Cubs?
Indeed, the top-rated stack on FD currently is a 1-2-3-5 stack of the Cubs, who are implied for 5.1 runs. They face Brewers righty Wily Peralta, who owns the second-worst WHIP in the slate at 1.721.
On DraftKings, a straight 1-2-3-4-5 Rockies stack takes the top spot:
The Rockies are currently implied for a slate-high 6.1 runs.
Batters
Corey Seager is projected to bat second for a Dodgers team currently implied for 4.9 runs. He doesn’t have significant splits either way (which is rare for a lefty) and does very well against righties: He has a .413 wOBA, .236 Isolated Power (ISO), and .576 slugging percentage. He’s been crushing the ball lately: He has a batted-ball exit velocity of 93 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 47 percent in his last 13 games. He’s entirely too cheap on FanDuel, where he has a $3,700 price tag and 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Nationals shortstop Trea Turner crushes fellow righties: He has a .387 wOBA, .219 ISO, and .556 slugging percentage in the last year. And he’s so darn consistent: Of everyday players, he owns the highest Consistency Rating (the percentage of games in which he’s hit salary-based expectations) in the last month at 69 percent. He averages .323 SB/G, which is the third-best mark in the slate. The dude can do it all.
Cameron Maybin certainly isn’t a sexy play: In the last year, he has a .342 wOBA, .077 ISO, and .406 slugging percentage against fellow righties. However, he has been hitting the ball better lately, as highlighted by his 94 MPH exit velocity in his last six games. And, most importantly, he’s $3,000 on FD and projected to bat second for a Tigers team currently implied for 4.8 runs.
Reds shortstop Jose Peraza is pretty much the same play as Maybin: He’s not sexy by any means — he has a .326 wOBA, .049 ISO, and .379 slugging percentage versus fellow righties — but he’s 1) $2,700 on FD and 2) projected to bat leadoff for a team currently implied for 4.7 runs. Vegas rules all; even bad hitters historically do well when they’re in a spot similar to Peraza’s:
Matt Carpenter hasn’t seen huge games lately, but his advanced stats suggest one could be coming: He’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 240 feet, an exit velocity of 91 MPH, and a fly-ball rate of 51 percent in his last 12 games. He’s on the correct side of his splits today: He has a .406 wOBA, .290 ISO, and .583 slugging percentage against righties in the last year. He’s projected to bat leadoff for a Cardinals team currently implied for 4.8 runs.
Good luck!
