Tuesday brings us a 15-game main slate at 7:05pm ET. Here’s to hoping that you won’t be the MLB DFS version of the LA Rams tonight. Let’s dive in.
Pitchers
Royals lefty Danny Duffy faces an Oakland team currently implied by Vegas for 3.5 runs. Oakland’s projected lineup has a team Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) of .300, the fourth-worst mark in the slate: They’ve been especially bad (that is, good for pitchers) over the last two months (per our Trends tool):
Duffy does have some concerning blemishes on his resume: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 232 feet, an exit velocity of 92 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 42 percent in his last two games. Further, his 6.0 K Prediction is fairly average. It ranks as the 10th-best mark in the slate. However, this matchup is divine and we know Duffy’s upside. He had a 16-strikeout, 84-point FD performance just a month ago. He’s certainly fine for cash games.
Mets ace Noah Syndergaard faces a Nationals squad currently implied for 3.6 runs. Thor has been rolling lately: He’s allowed an exit velocity of 87 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 20 percent in his last two starts — one of those against these very Nationals. He boasts an 8.1 K Prediction, which is the second-best mark in the slate behind that of the Dodgers’ Julio Urias. Further, Thor has Hunter Wendelstedt behind home plate, an umpire who has historically gifted a +2.5 Plus/Minus to FD pitchers. He’s the most expensive pitcher — he’s $11,700 on DK and $10,900 on FD — but he’s certainly in play in all contest formats.
Toronto righty Marcus Stroman faces a Rays team currently implied for 3.7 runs. He’s been a bit up and down lately:
But his advanced stats suggest that he’s trending back in the right direction: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 177 feet, an exit velocity of 88 MPH, a hard-hit rate of 30 percent, and he’s induced ground balls at a 57 percent clip. He’s not a strikeout guy — his SO/9 rate (7.704) is the 20th-highest mark in the slate — but he owns the seventh-highest K Prediction (6.3) because of the matchup. He’s especially cheap at FanDuel, where he is $7,800 and boasts an 89 percent Bargain Rating.
If you want to dip into the bargain bin and aren’t scared away by this . . .
. . . then Giants righty Albert Suarez could be your guy in tournaments. He’s opposing a Padres team currently implied for 3.7 runs and is at home in San Francisco, giving him a perfect 100 Park Factor. His advanced stats have actually been pretty good despite all the red in the graphic above: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 195 feet, an exit velocity of 90 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 23 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 26 percent — and he’s induced ground balls at a 58 percent clip. The Padres strike out often (.304 SO/AB) and Suarez has a 6.2 K Prediction on the day. Oh yeah, and he’s only $5,400 on FD.
Reds righty Dan Straily faces a Milwaukee team currently implied for 3.8 runs. His advanced stats are a bit troubling: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 233 feet, an exit velocity of 92 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 38 percent in his last three games. Still, this is a matchup against a team whose projected lineup owns the slate’s fifth-worst wOBA (.301) and the third-highest SO/AB rate (.311). Straily’s 7.3 K Prediction is the fifth-best mark today. This is the time of year when we pick on the same bad offenses over and over again. The Brewers certainly qualify.
This seems to be a day to pay up for hitting, as many of the best SP plays just don’t cost very much. The Nationals’ A.J. Cole is another example at only $6,000 on FD. He faces a Mets team currently implied for 4.0 runs, and although he’s an underdog he’s not that big of a dog (+117). The youngster has just a few starts to his MLB career, but he’s hit value in most of them:
His advanced stats are a little odd: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 227 feet, an exit velocity of 88 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 64 percent, a line-drive rate of seven percent, and a hard-hit rate of 14 percent. Some of those are elite. Some are awful. The good news about Cole is that he requires very little investment and includes a ton of tournament upside because of his solid 6.2 K Prediction and the opposing pitcher, who’s likely to be the slate’s chalky option. If you #RollWithCole over Thor, you’ll set yourself up well in tournaments if the Nationals bats perform over expectations.
The last pitcher I’ll mention is Pirates righty Ivan Nova, who has been really solid lately:
He’s facing the Phillies, who are implied for 3.7 runs and whose projected lineup owns the slate’s worst team wOBA at .252. Nova’s advanced stats have been excellent lately: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 181 feet, an exit velocity of 88 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 27 percent. He doesn’t have a ton of K upside — he boasts a K Prediction of 5.7 — but his price on FD ($7,300) is just way too cheap for this matchup.
Stacks
Let’s mix it up a bit today and sort stacks by Pro Trends instead of Player Model rating. On DraftKings, the top-four five-man stacks by total Pro Trends belong to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Here’s the top one:
The Diamondbacks are currently implied for 5.3 runs.
On FanDuel, the top-two four-man stacks by Pro Trends are also Diamondbacks stacks. After those, the next one is a 1-2-3-5 projected stack of the Mariners:
The Mariners are currently implied for 4.7 runs and could go a bit underowned given the other high-implied offenses: The Blue Jays, Red Sox, Tigers, Astros, and Braves all boast higher totals currently.
Batters
David Ortiz against a righty is always an obvious play, but because he’s retiring and I have only a very finite amount of time to write about him, here we go. He crushes righties so hard: He has a .437 wOBA, .347 Isolated Power (ISO), and .668 slugging percentage against them in the last year. He’s about to be 41 years old. He has a batted-ball distance of 242 feet, a fly-ball rate of 44 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 44 percent in his last seven games. Enjoy him while you still have the chance.
Ian Kinsler is projected to bat leadoff for a Detroit team currently implied for 5.1 runs. He actually has negative splits versus fellow righties: He owns a .326 wOBA, .162 ISO, and .429 slugging percentage in the last year. However, his advanced stats recently are solid: He’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 220 feet and an exit velocity of 91 MPH in his last eight games. He faces Kyle Gibson, who owns the fourth-worst WHIP in the slate at 1.574. But really this just comes down to the fact that Kinsler is $3,900 on FD and batting leadoff for a team implied for over five runs.
Freddie Freeman isn’t Ortiz-versus-righties, but he’s been impressively close in the last year: He has a .405 wOBA, .289 ISO, and .585 slugging percentage against them. He’s come back to earth a bit after a ridiculous stretch (he was averaging a batted-ball exit velocity in the high 90s), but his salary has come down, too. He’s now only $3,400 on FD and projected to bat third for a Braves team currently implied for 4.8 runs.
Brian Dozier has 10 home runs in his last 13 games. That sounds good. He’s on the right side of his splits today facing lefty Matt Boyd: He has a .397 wOBA, .328 ISO, and .606 slugging percentage in the last year. As you would expect (given all of the homers), his advanced stats are ridiculous: In his last 11 games, he’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 250 feet, an exit velocity of 94 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 50 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 55 percent. He’s projected to bat leadoff for a Twins team currently implied for only 4.0 runs, and that means that he’ll likely be underowned in tournaments.
Alex Bregman is currently projected to bat second for an Astros team implied for 4.9 runs. He’s on the right side of his splits: He has a .355 wOBA, .233 ISO, and .511 slugging percentage against righties. He’s also been crushing the ball lately: He’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 249 feet, an exit velocity of 92 MPH, and a fly-ball rate of 44 percent in his last 11 games. He faces Rangers righty A.J. Griffin, who owns the second-worst HR/9 rate in the slate at 2.107.
Good luck!
