The benevolence of Katie Ledecky continues: There is a Coors game today, but it is the only day game (3:10 PM ET). If you’re a Coors apologist, you can play the all-day slate to your heart’s desire. If you’re not, simply wait until the 14-game main slate and you don’t have to deal with it. Let’s dive in.
Pitchers
If you’re feeling a little burned after paying such a high premium for Jose Fernandez last night only to have him strike out six batters in six innings pitched, don’t worry – Max Scherzer is a different type of play tonight. Scherzer has a slate-high 10.2 K Prediction and faces a Cleveland team that has a .285 SO/AB rate in the last year, the third-highest mark in the slate. The Indians are implied to score only 3.2 runs currently and Scherzer is a sizable favorite with a -180 moneyline. Those marks have historically led to a lot of value (per our Trends tool):
I’m not a guy to toot my own horn — probably because I don’t own a horn and I don’t want to borrow one to toot — but I am pretty proud of the Kenta Maeda-at-Coors play in his last start. Today he gets a much better matchup. He’s facing a Phillies team currently implied to score 2.9 runs, the lowest mark in the slate. Maeda also has the second-highest K Prediction tonight at 7.2. He boasts nice advanced stats, highlighted by his 202-foot batted-ball distance allowed in his last two starts — again, one of those being at Coors Field. At only $8,800 on FanDuel, he’s perhaps the best play of the entire night.
Steven Matz has certainly been disappointing lately:
However, a couple data points suggest that Matz could be in for a nice evening. First, he is facing the Diamondbacks, who are currently implied for 3.3 runs. Second, Matz has excellent advanced stats despite his poor actual results: He has allowed a batted-ball distance of only 168 feet in his last two starts. Those two data points together have historically led to a lot of pitching value:
Chris Sale might be an interesting character off the field, but there’s no denying his upside on it: Just look at his 48-point, 10-strikeout performance against the Tigers in his last outing. He faces the Royals tonight, who currently have an implied Vegas total of 3.5 runs. His advanced stats continue to be excellent: He has allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of 86 miles per hour and a hard-hit rate of 20 percent in his last two starts. His K Prediction is a little low today (6.8) — partially because of the Royals’ .228 SO/AB rate and partially because his own SO/9 rate has dipped in the last year — but he showed last game that he has double-digit K upside any time he takes the mound.
If you’re looking for a pitcher who has similarly excellent advanced stats but is much cheaper, Cubs righty John Lackey is your guy. He has also allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of 86 MPH in his last two starts, along with a batted-ball distance of 174 feet. He faces the Angels tonight, who have the fourth-lowest SO/AB rate at .204, which is reflected in his mediocre 5.9 K Prediction. However, the Angels are implied to score only 3.6 runs currently, and he’s in excellent recent form. Finally, he’s comparatively cheap ($8,700 on FD), and he’s also the biggest favorite today at -225 — a massive number.
Another guy who is a sizable favorite (-187) and is the same price on FanDuel is Toronto righty Marco Estrada. He faces the Rays tonight, who are currently implied to score 3.8 runs. Estrada does have some risk pitching at home in a batter’s park, although that hasn’t historically been an issue for him personally:
Estrada has a mediocre K Prediction (6.6) and advanced stats. He’s perhaps best used as a tournament pivot from the likely higher-owned Lackey.
Zack Greinke will return to the mound tonight after a month-long stint on the Designated List with a strained left oblique. He will be on the road facing the Mets, who are currently implied to score 3.7 runs. He was cruising before his last two games in late June:
However, because he might have rust and we’re unsure of his health, perhaps use him solely in tournaments. That he’s a dog to Matz is another concerning factor suggesting that he’s not a viable cash option.
The last pitcher I’ll mention is Boston righty Rick Porcello, who has been very consistent over the last month:
He faces a Yankees team currently implied to score 4.2 runs — not a great number for a pitcher — but because his Red Sox team is implied for 5.4 run he’s still a sizable -168 favorite. And as you can see from the image he’s in good recent form: He has allowed a hard-hit rate of 29 percent in his last two outings. He’s at a weird price point — $9,900 on DraftKings and $9,100 on FanDuel — but he’s certainly in play tonight.
Stacks
OK, the obligatory Coors Field top-rated stack:
Now that that game is out of the way, let’s look at the top-rated five-man DK stack in the Bales Model for tonight’s main slate:
It belongs to a 1-3-4-6-7 projected stack of the Brewers — an intriguing one, given that it’s not a straight stack.
On the FanDuel side, it’s actually a Braves 1-2-3-5 stack that takes the top spot, perhaps the only time all year we’ve been able to say that.
For what it’s worth, a 1-3-5-7 Brewers stack is the second-rated one for FanDuel. However, the Braves grouping has a slightly higher rating right now (+1.7) and, more importantly, is $2,200 cheaper.
Batters
Anthony Rizzo is projected to bat third for a Cubs team currently implied for 5.5 runs tonight, the highest mark in the slate. He has excellent splits versus righties — .410 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), .286 Isolated Power (ISO), and .577 slugging percentage — and he gets a righty today in Jered Weaver. He has been hitting a lot of balls in the air lately (52 percent fly-ball rate in the last 12 games) and we know his home-run upside on any given night.
Mookie Betts can hit value in a large number of ways. Take last night, for example: He scored 21.7 FD points off a hit, RBI, walk, and a stolen base. The dude can do it all. Tonight he faces righty Luis Severino, although pitcher handedness isn’t an issue for Mookie: He’s a no-splits guy. He has a .229 ISO and a recent batted-ball distance of 219 feet. He’s good.
Jose Altuve had the night off last night but is projected to be back in the Astros’ lineup and hitting third. He faces lefty Hector Santiago, who has the slate’s second-worst HR/9 rate at 1.733 over the last year. That is certainly a positive indicator for Altuve, who has a recent hard-hit rate of 40 percent and an exit velocity of 91 MPH. The Astros are currently implied for 4.6 runs.
Speaking of ‘blah’ pitchers: The Pirates face Luis Perdomo, who has the slate’s worst WHIP at 1.891. The Pirates are currently implied for 4.7 runs, making them a very interesting stacking option at likely reduced ownership levels. Starling Marte is particularly intriguing: Projected to bat cleanup, he has a .382 wOBA, .169 ISO, and .501 slugging percentage. He also has incredible stolen-base upside every night: His .305 SB/G mark is the fourth-highest of all batters.
Nationals SS Trea Turner has come back down to earth in his last two games, scoring only six combined FD points on one hit, but his salary is still affordable at both DK ($4,000) and FD ($3,600). He has hit more ground balls lately (48 percent) than you probably want from a normal player, but he might be the fastest player in baseball — yes, even faster than Billy Hamilton. Perhaps for a speedster like him, ground-ball rates are less important. Even so, his .352 wOBA versus righties isn’t shabby.
Good luck today!
