Today’s MLB DFS slate essentially comes down to two groups of players: Those who are Max Kepler and those who are not. I’m tempted to end the breakdown there, but we’ll continue and go over the latter group more in-depth.
Pitchers
The pitching options include several aces, highlighted at the top by Giants lefty Madison Bumgarner. He faces the Phillies, who are implied for only 3.0 runs currently. As you would expect in a ‘Bum vs. the Phillies’ matchup, he’s a massive -220 moneyline favorite and is pulling in 82 percent of the moneyline bets so far. Per our advanced stats, he has a concerning batted-ball distance allowed mark of 242 feet in his last two starts, but the rest of his advanced stats — for example, his hard-hit rate of 27 percent — are more in line with his usual marks. He has a K Prediction of 8.4, which is third-best in the slate. Combine all of these things into a trend cauldron, and . . . not shabby.
Carlos Carrasco is the second-heaviest favorite in the slate at -200 currently, although he is facing the same Twins team — led by Kepler, of course — that put up 12 runs last night, six of them in the first two innings before knocking out Danny Salazar. Vegas suggests that they’ll come back down to earth tonight — they’re implied for only 3.3 runs currently — but note that they’ve scored a combined 23 runs in their last three games. Carrasco, unlike Salazar, has been in good recent form lately: He has allowed a batted-ball distance of 187 feet in his last two starts and induced ground balls at a 51 percent clip.
Jacob deGrom gets the Yankees tonight, who are implied to score only 3.1 runs at the moment. However, because his Mets are projected for only 3.5 runs, he has a low moneyline of -125. Also, because of the Yankees’ low SO/AB rate (.213), he has a K Prediction of only 6.4 despite having a SO/9 rate of 9.589 in the last year. That’s not a bad K Prediction in a typical slate, but it’s not superb tonight considering the other options we’ll get to soon. deGrom has also really struggled lately in terms of his advanced data: He has allowed a hard-hit rate of 42 percent, easily the worst of any of the high-priced options.
After allowing 22 hits in two starts, David Price had a better result last game against the Angels: Although he still gave up seven hits, he lasted eight innings and didn’t allow a run. With the performance, his advanced stats — his 67 percent recent ground-ball rate, for example — are trending back in the right direction. He’s on the road against the Mariners tonight, who are implied to score 3.3 runs currently. He’s in a seemingly good spot, given that the Mariners’ projected lineup has a Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) of .283, a bottom-five mark in the slate.
Lance McCullers and Gerrit Cole are similarly priced on FanDuel at $9,400 and $9,500. Cole has the Vegas and matchup edge: The opposing Braves are implied to score 3.3 runs currently, whereas McCullers faces the Blue Jays and their 3.7 implied runs. However, McCullers has the superior K Prediction — 6.7 versus 5.7 — and he has been better recently: He has allowed a hard-hit rate of only three percent, a laughably-low number. On DraftKings, Cole is $1,300 cheaper.
If you want to dip below the $9,000 range, Zach Davies is an option. He faces the Padres, who are currently implied to score 3.7 runs. He’s on the road in San Diego, which means that he has an excellent Park Factor of 81. Davies doesn’t have an incredibly-high SO/9 rate at 7.197, but because of the Padres’ awful SO/AB rate — .296, which is fourth-worst in the slate — he has a solid K Prediction of 6.5. He’s only a slight favorite and has average advanced data, but at only $7,900 on FanDuel he definitely checks enough boxes.
There are several more pitchers who are viable tonight, especially in tournaments, but we’ll finish this section by talking about just two more: Jose Fernandez and Yu Darvish. They both have average ratings in the Bales Model because of their Vegas data — they’re on the road facing Cubs and Orioles lineups currently implied to score 3.6 and 4.1 runs — but they have immense strikeout upside. Darvish has a K Prediction of 9.6, although that looks a bit silly compared to Fernandez’s mark of 10.6. Pitchers slated to give up 3.6 runs or more have historically produced a -0.90 Plus/Minus at DraftKings, but that bumps way up when you add the strikeout potential.
Stacks
Ah, back to Coors Field.
As expected, one of the Coors teams has the highest-rated DraftKings stack in the Bales Model:
The Dodgers and the Rockies — currently implied for 5.4 and 5.1 runs — will be highly owned, so you’ll definitely want to find a unique stack in tournaments. The one listed above — the Dodgers 2-3-5-6-7 five-man stack — provides differentiation from the straight 1-5 and 2-6 stacks.
The two top-rated FD stacks belong to the Dodgers as well, but if you want to pivot off of them, next up is a familiar one, as we saw it yesterday:
If you look at stacks by average Isolated Power (ISO), a Washington 4-5-7-8 stack takes the top spot on FanDuel:
By the way, the Nationals scored 14 runs last night.
Hitters
Tonight’s slate is interesting in that it boasts a lot of aces and great pitching options but also includes a Coors Field game. As such, you’ll definitely need to juggle paying up or down for pitchers and batters.
After struggling for quite a bit, Miguel Cabrera is on fire right now: He had 50.6 FD points with two home runs in his last outing. He has averaged 24.0 FD points per game in his last five games, a pretty ridiculous number. He faces righty James Shields tonight, who has allowed a miserable 1.540 HR/9 in the last year. Miggy has a .403 wOBA, .228 ISO, and .553 slugging percentage versus righties — all excellent marks.
Jurickson Profar is just simply way too cheap on FanDuel: He is only $2,700 there and thus has a 98 percent Bargain Rating. He isn’t at Coors Field tonight, but he does have an excellent Park Factor of 78, which is also the case for Nomar Mazara and all lefty batters at Camden Yards. The Rangers are implied for 4.5 runs currently and face Dylan Bundy, who despite having two solid games in a row still has a miserable WHIP of 1.526 in the last year.
Brandon Moss is currently projected to bat cleanup (although it could be Matt Adams, so check our Lineups page closer to lock) for a Cardinals team implied to score 4.6 runs tonight. They face Reds righty Dan Straily, who has been good lately but also has concerning advanced stats: He has allowed a batted-ball distance of 222 feet and an exit velocity of 91 miles per hour in his last two starts. Moss is coming off the DL and hasn’t played since early July, but he boasts elite splits versus righties, as shown by his .411 wOBA, .331 ISO, and .614 slugging percentage.
Starling Marte will be the last batter mentioned as, again, I don’t think I need to tell you that Dodgers and Rockies bats are valuable tonight. Marte is projected to bat cleanup for the Pirates, who are facing Michael Foltynewicz, who gives up at least one million home runs every start. His HR/9 rate of 2.011 is pure misery. Marte isn’t the type of power hitter we usually see at the fourth spot — his ISO versus righties is .170 in the last year — but he does possess elite stolen base upside, as shown by his .301 SB/G rate.
Good luck tonight!
