Again there is only one day game, which is the first game of a Brewers-Cubs doubleheader. That game is included in both the DraftKings and FanDuel all-day slates. The second leg of the doubleheader is included in both of the main slates beginning at 7:05 PM ET.
Pitchers
Justin Verlander has now exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last six starts. He faces a Royals team whose projected lineup has a Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) that has dipped all the way down to .293 — a far cry from where it was a year ago. The Royals are currently projected for 3.2 runs, which is the lowest mark in the slate. Per our advanced stats, Verlander has allowed a high number of fly balls in his last two games (55 percent) but has also allowed a low 23 percent hard-hit rate. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs since late June, which suggests how high his floor is right now. Get your exposure to him on FanDuel: He’s $10,000 there, as opposed to a slate-high $12,900 on DraftKings.
Cleveland righty Corey Kluber is more expensive than Verlander on FanDuel ($10,700) but cheaper on DraftKings ($11,400). He faces a White Sox team currently implied for 3.3 runs, the second-lowest mark in the slate. He is also arguably in just as good of form as Verlander: In his last two games, he has allowed a batted-ball distance of 190 feet and a hard-hit rate of only 17 percent. Because of the Indians’ potent offense, he’s also a bigger favorite currently with a -172 moneyline. Because of the slate’s pricing, Kluber makes for a nice cash-game option on DraftKings and a tournament option on FanDuel.
Perhaps the most intriguing pitcher of the day is Mets righty Noah Syndergaard. He is the exact same price as Verlander on FanDuel ($10,000), yet he faces a Diamondbacks squad currently implied for 3.6 runs at Chase Field, a batter’s park (per our Trends tool).
Further, Syndergaard has struggled lately:
However, if we dig a little deeper, we see a pitcher who could break out. In his last two starts, he has allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of only 85 miles per hour. Combine that with his 8.7 K Prediction — the highest mark in the main slate — and perhaps Thor is in line for a huge game at potentially low ownership because of his shared price point with Verlander:
The Cubs will start two notable pitchers today: Trevor Cahill in the day game and Jason Hammel in the main slate. Cahill is a little tough to peg: He’s minimum price ($4,000 on both sites), has a very high SO/9 rate (12.167) and faces the most strikeout-prone team (the Brewers, .318 SO/AB). However, he’s also coming off the Designated List today for a spot start — he’ll join the bullpen after this game — and he didn’t fare too well in his six rehab starts in Triple-A, going 0-3 with a 4.58 ERA. He probably won’t go long into the game, but his strikeout upside at just $4,000 is probably worth rostering in at least one lineup for guaranteed prize pools.
Hammel isn’t so tough to peg: He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last five games, highlighted by his recent 51-point FD outing against the Angels. In the night game, the Brewers are currently implied for 3.4 runs and Hammel is easily the largest favorite on the slate at -220. His K Prediction of 7.2 is very solid considering the other high-K options today. It’s actually the fifth-highest mark in the main slate.
Rays lefty Blake Snell had pitched very well prior to struggling against the Blue Jays last game, in which he didn’t make it past the second inning and allowed five runs (only two earned). As a result, his recent advanced stats aren’t pretty: He has allowed a batted-ball distance of 223 feet and an exit velocity of 91 MPH in his last two. However, today’s matchup is a much easier one than on the road in Toronto: He’s facing a Padres team currently implied for 3.5 runs. He also gets them at home, where he has an 89 Park Factor. He provides a lot of salary relief at only $7,900 on FanDuel.
Astros lefty Dallas Keuchel has a tough matchup tonight, facing a Cardinals team whose projected lineup has a .322 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), the fourth-highest mark on the slate. However, the Cardinals are currently implied for 3.6 runs and Keuchel is a -157 favorite, so Vegas seems to believe in Keuch today. According to his advanced stats, perhaps you should too: He has allowed a batted-ball distance of 160 feet, a fly-ball rate of three percent, and a ground-ball rate of . . . yes, this is the correct number . . . 89 percent. Out of all the pitchers in great form, Keuch might sneakily be the best tonight.
In a loaded pitching slate, there are definitely other viable options. Kenta Maeda faces the Phillies and has high-K upside: His 7.5 K Prediction is fourth-best in the slate. Michael Pineda has a tougher matchup versus Toronto but even higher K Prediction at 7.9. Jeff Samardzija faces the Pirates at home, where he has a perfect 100 Park Factor. And Danny Duffy is just really good:
Stacks
The Nationals and Rockies continue their series at Coors Field, so again they dominate the top stacks today. The highest-rated five-man DraftKings stack, per the Bales Model, is a 1-2-3-4-5 Nats stack:
If we eliminate Washington from FanDuel consideration, the Red Sox take the four stacks at the top, highlighted by this one:
Batters
Today’s MLB slate is tough because of the game at Coors Field and all the great pitchers. Let’s try to find some value bats to pair with the high-priced options discussed above.
Jurickson Profar is only $2,800 on FanDuel and is projected to bat leadoff for a Rangers team currently implied for 5.7 runs, the second-highest mark in the slate behind the 6.0 runs of the Nationals. Profar doesn’t have a hit in his last three starts, but he faces Oakland righty Andrew Triggs, who has an awful 1.589 WHIP in the last year.
Another cheap projected leadoff guy, Nori Aoki is only $2,700 on FanDuel and on a Mariners team currently implied for 4.7 runs. Like Profar, he has been very up and down lately, but he does have a 91 MPH exit velocity in his last nine games and a batted-ball distance of 214 feet. He also gets Jhoulys Chacin, who has a 1.521 WHIP over the last year.
Cubs shortstop Addison Russell is $2,900 on FanDuel and projected to hit fifth for a dynamic Cubs offense currently implied for 5.2 runs in the late game. His advanced stats are excellent lately: He has a hard-hit rate of 44 percent in the last 11 games, a 14-point bump from his yearly average.
Boston outfielder Andrew Benintendi has barely started his MLB career, but he has been incredibly solid so far: Outside of last night’s 0-4 outing against the Indians, he had recorded at least some DK points in each of his last seven starts. The Red Sox don’t want to move him up the order right now, so he’ll likely hit ninth again, but he’s cheap and has upside. And if you want to roster both stud pitchers and stud batters, isn’t a cheap player with upside the type of guy you’ll also need to roster?
Good luck.
