We have two days in a row now with no day games. However, the 7:05 PM ET main slate is bigger tonight with 15 games. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
Jake Arrieta is the most expensive option on both sites — $12,100 at DraftKings and $10,600 at FanDuel — but that is quite a discount from where he has been in previous slates and where we saw Jose Fernandez last night. He boasts the slate’s best WHIP at 0.921, although he has really struggled lately. He has failed to meet salary-based expectations in his past four starts and two of them classified as Duds. His advanced stats paint a similar portrait: His 45 percent recent hard-hit rate is very un-Arrieta like. However, his 7.8 K Prediction is one of the highest on the slate, and we’ve seen countless times the amount of upside he brings any time he takes the mound.
Carlos Martinez is currently the second highest-rated pitcher for FanDuel behind Arrieta in the Bales Model. He is facing the Padres tonight at home, which gives him a solid 81 Park Factor. He is also a very large favorite at -200 currently and the Padres are implied to score only 3.3 runs. He doesn’t have nearly the strikeout upside that other pitchers boast — his K Prediction sits at only 6.5 right now — but his advanced stats are very solid: In his last two starts, he has allowed a batted-ball distance of only 187 feet and induced ground balls at a rate of 67 percent.
Speaking of strikeout upside: Noah Syndergaard — starting opposite Arrieta today in quite the pitching duel — has the slate’s highest K Prediction at 8.9. Because of the matchup, he has bad Vegas data: The Cubs are implied to score 3.8 runs currently and he is a dog at +130. He does have a better recent hard-hit rate than Arrieta (18 percent) and the Cubs do have a fairly high strikeout rate at 0.261 SO/AB, but their projected lineup also has the slate’s third-highest wOBA at .364. Given Thor’s talent, he’s not an outright fade because of the matchup, but he should be used more as a contrarian option.
The only guy who can rival Thor’s K upside tonight is Vincent Velasquez, who is going against the Marlins and currently has an 8.7 K Prediction. His 1.289 WHIP isn’t ideal given the other pitching options tonight, but the Marlins’ projected lineup does have a bottom-four mark, so perhaps his wOBA is less of an issue. He is a much better value at FanDuel at $8,600, as shown by his 87 Bargain Rating there.
At the same price point on FD sits Jose Quintana, who is set to face the Mariners. Seattle is currently implied for 4.0 runs and Quintana is only a very slight favorite right now at -109, so there is certainly risk. However, Quintana does have nice advanced stats lately, particularly his recent batted-ball distance allowed, which sits at a solid 198 feet. Out of all pitchers in this slate, he actually has the highest Consistency mark over the last year: In the 31-game sample, he has hit salary-based expectations in 74 percent of contests.
Stacks
Another Coors day, another top Rockies stack. Let’s look at the top Rockies and Rays stacks and then I’ll give the best non-Coors stack, per the Bales Model.
Here is the top-rated Rockies stack on DraftKings:
Looking at this, you probably don’t need me to tell that the Rockies are facing a left-handed pitcher.
Here is the top-rated Rays stack currently on FanDuel:
And the Rays are facing a righty.
Finally here is the highest-rated non-Coors stack on FanDuel:
A 1-4-5-6 stack of the Reds is the top non-Coors option currently and is one that is also much cheaper. Speaking of the Reds, here’s a guy who is oddly underpriced every day right now . . .
Other Hitters
New day, same play: Adam Duvall has a .350 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), .306 Isolated Power (ISO), and .549 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers. He is only $3,000 at FanDuel for some reason.
Yesterday, the Tigers seemed to be the play of the night. Their line jumped up to nearly six implied runs and they were relatively cheap, as shown by their final 97 Team Value Rating at FanDuel. They certainly disappointed, scoring only one run, but will look to bounce back tonight, as they’re currently implied to score 5.5 runs against the Twins. Nick Castellanos, projected to hit fifth, is an excellent option at only $3,300 on FD, given his .303 ISO versus lefties.
Josh Donaldson used to be a heavy splits guys, doing well against righties and crushing lefties. However, his splits have normalized over the last year, as he actually now has a slightly better ISO (.299) versus righties than lefties. His wOBA (0.421) is essentially even between the two and is an elite mark. It is supposed to be really hot in Phoenix tonight — the game time temperature is currently projected for 99 degrees — and hot weather is historically a positive for batters:
What to say about David Ortiz? He always boasts one of the highest ISO marks in the slate anytime he faces a right-handed pitcher, as he does tonight against Giants righty Jake Peavy. Ortiz has a recent hard-hit rate of 52 percent in his last six games, which is a five point bump from his already-ridiculous year-long rate. Peavy has allowed a miserable batted-ball distance of 244 feet in his last two starts. If that is any indication of Peavy’s form, Ortiz will certainly take advantage.
Tommy Pham, projected to hit first for the St. Louis Cardinals, is in a great spot tonight versus Padres righty Colin Rea. Pham has great splits against righties: His .406 wOBA, .286 ISO, and .588 slugging percentage splits are all elite for a guy at his price point ($3,500 at DK and $2,700 at FD), without even factoring in the Cardinals’ current implied run total of 5.1. Pham currently has 11 Pro Trends at DK, which is one of the top marks of the slate.
Good luck tonight!
