The Big Three
Zack Greinke is averaging 1.41 fewer strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9) than either Jon Lester or Corey Kluber this season. Still, Greinke is one of the stronger pitching options in the slate since his opponent (PHI) has the slate’s lowest implied Vegas run total. They Phillies are also averaging .009 more strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB) than either of Kluber’s or Lester’s opposing offenses.
Given that Kluber has a 98 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel, he’s arguably the most valuable pitcher there. Per our advanced stats, he has allowed a 169-foot batted-ball distance in the last 15 days, top-three among pitchers this evening. At DraftKings, where Kluber has experienced a +$2,600 Salary Change since his last start, he provides far less value. Fortunately, Lester’s salary at DraftKings hasn’t increased at all in the past five days — despite outscoring all other pitchers by 3.9 DraftKings points per game over the last month. Lester’s Consistency is also 10 percentage points higher than either Kluber’s or Greinke’s over the last 12 months.
Bargain Rating, Salary Change, Consistency, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
You’re splitting hairs when making the decision which one (at FanDuel) or two (at DraftKings) to roster, so just let their salaries at each respective site pave the way.
No Way, Jose!
Not to be confused with WWE’s last chance at an over-the-top gimmick becoming successful, Jose Quintana is also an intriguing option tonight. Not only has he received a higher percentage of moneyline bets than Lester, but he gets to face a projected Twins lineup averaging .299 SO/AB, bottom-three in this slate. Yes, Quintana was exploited for six runs by the Red Sox in his last outing, but he had notably recorded over 20 DraftKings points in three of his four prior starts. Of all the pitchers in the slate, Quintana has actually allowed the fewest home runs per nine innings (HR/9) in the past year.
Get to Know Lucas Giolito
Baseball twitter had a field day of one-word responses once it was announced that it would be Giolito who was taking the place of Stephen Strasburg. For those who don’t know, Giolito is widely regarded by numerous publications as the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball. Only 21 years old and in Double-A at the time of his call-up, Gio posted a 2.41 earned run average and 55 strikeouts over his last nine starts. More impressive is that he possesses both triple-digit heat and a curveball already said to be an above-average pitch for a major leaguer.
Because My Editor Wanted Me to Talk About Coors Field
Pondering whether or not to roster hitters at Coors Field on any given night is typically a three-phase process. First, figure out the strongest options and squeeze them into your cash lineup(s). Next, for tournaments, identify an offense with a comparable ceiling, since most stacks will already have a lower ownership just by being in the same slate as those playing at Coors Field. And Phase 3: Profit.
Yesterday is a great example. You could count the reasons to fade both teams once lineups were released — Ezequiel Carrera, who has a -0.105 Weighted On-Base (wOBA) Differential versus right-handed pitching, was leading off against a right-handed pitcher; DJ LeMahieu, who has a .374 wOBA and typically hits second for the Rockies, was ruled out; Trevor Story, who has the highest Isolated Power (ISO) for Colorado, was also absent; Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada had averaged 23.3 DraftKings points in his five starts prior to stepping into Coors Field; Troy Tulowitzki Narrative Street; Toronto’s implied Vegas total had plummeted 1.1 runs before first pitch; and Jon Gray had averaged a 3.00 ERA in his previous four starts at home, three of which saw him last at least seven innings.
More importantly yesterday’s slate had a bevy of stacks (the Cubs being one of them) that had potential comparable to that of the Rockies and Blue Jays. For tournaments, the slate actually boiled down to rostering some combination of Danny Duffy, Matt Shoemaker, Kris Bryant, and a Nationals stack, but you get the point. (Of course, if you started Rockies and Blue Jays in cash games, you were probably fine, since they did combine to score 14 runs.)
As for tonight, there’s reason to believe that the Blue Jays, facing Eddie Butler, might be in a tier of their own. Just note Butler’s 0.5 DraftKings points per game over the past month and his average -6.08 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over his last six starts. He has also allowed 2.05 HR/9 in the last year. Carrera still has only a .366 ISO vs. RHP, but Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, and Edwin Encarnacion are all slugging at least .518 against said handedness. Even Tulowitzki has a .152 ISO Differential tonight.
Offenses with Comparable Ceilings, Perhaps
Orioles vs. Erik Johnson
Johnson’s 3.01 HR/9 allowed in the past year is 0.96 higher than that of any other other pitcher tonight. He has also been rocked since joining the Padres, averaging a -9.55 Plus/Minus and negative DraftKings points over his last four starts. The best part about any combination of an Orioles stack is that the most notable hitters have positive advanced differentials and won’t garner the same ownership as anyone hitting in Coors Field. Most DFSers will choose Encarnacion over Chris Davis, Michael Saunders over Adam Jones, Donaldson over Manny Machado, and so on.
Padres vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
Jimenez’s last start actually saw him record seven strikeouts and 22.7 DraftKings points against, who else, the Padres. Consider that particular performance an anomaly. In his seven starts prior, he averaged a -11.74 Plus/Minus at DraftKings. Also, he has allowed a hard-hit rate 10 percentage points higher and a batted-ball distance 24 feet farther than his yearly averages.
Mariners vs. Jon Niese
Over his last three games, Niese has averaged a -7.53 Plus/Minus at DraftKings. The Mariners arguably have as high of a ceiling as any team has due to the peripherals of those expected to start tonight. See Franklin Gutierrez’s .587 slugging percentage, Dae-Ho Lee’s .243 ISO, Nelson Cruz’s .608 slugging percentage, and Kyle Seager’s average of 9.3 DraftKings points in the last month, tied for top-eight at his position.
Not to Be Confused with the Cubs
Don’t take this as an outright suggestion to fade Chicago against John Lamb. That’s for you to decide. My job is to share with you that Lamb has allowed an exit velocity seven miles per hour lower than his yearly average in the last 15 days. His 158-foot batted-ball distance allowed in that span is also 11 feet shorter than Kluber’s and 27 feet shorter than Lester’s. There’s nothing worse than chasing points or a successful stack from the night prior. Lamb’s recent advanced stats suggest that you might want to stay away from the Cubs tonight.
Other Noteworthy Hitters
Justin Bour, MIA
Being eligible at the same position as Encarnacion or Anthony Rizzo tonight will likely leave you ignored entirely. That’s terrific news for Bour, whose recent production is even visually appealing:
Furthermore, his .208 ISO Differential versus right-handed pitching is .015 higher than the next first basemen’s.
Brandon Moss, STL
Moss’ batted-ball distance over the last 15 days is top-10 at his position. He has also exceeded salary-based expectations in 61 percent of his starts over the past month, second only to Daniel Descalso and Rizzo (62 percent) in that span. As for tonight, his .274 ISO is quietly ranked top-five among first basemen.
Jason Kipnis, CLE
Matt Carpenter, Jose Altuve, and Rougned Odor are the only second basemen with a higher exit velocity than Kipnis’ in the last 15 days. None, however, have a higher wOBA or ISO Differential tonight, which is why Kipnis is so intriguing.
Adrian Beltre, TEX
Now facing a lefty, Beltre has a slugging percentage (.572) and wOBA Differential (.093) that are both top-five at his position. He has also recently recorded a hard-hit rate five percentage points higher than his yearly average.
Tim Anderson, CWS
You would think that Anderson’s salary would’ve risen everywhere since he has exceeded salary-based expectations across sites in his last four games. He still has a 97 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel. His wOBA and ISO Differentials are also the highest among shortstops by a differential of .068 and .025.
Ryan Rua, TEX
Rua is quietly slugging .588 against southpaws, behind only Ryan Braun, Nelson Cruz, and Robbie Grossman tonight. More impressive is that Rua has recorded a batted-ball distance 15 feet farther than that of any other outfielder over his last six starts. His 97 MPH exit velocity in those games is second-highest at his position.
Good luck!
