If you enjoy trapezing without a safety net, this is the slate for you.
Pitchers
None of today’s pitchers rank inside the top-65 in SO/9 since the All-Star break.
In three starts and three relief appearances, A.J. Cole leads all pitchers with a 1.044 WHIP and an 8.407 SO/9. The Nationals possess the highest moneyline today at -203, and the Phillies are currently implied to score 3.5 runs. With no obvious cash option at pitcher, Cole is a cheap win candidate on FanDuel at $6,500, where he’s the highest-rated pitcher in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.
Jaime Garcia is the highest-rated pitcher in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models on DraftKings. He leads all pitchers with a negative 26-foot batted-ball distance differential and 76 percent ground-ball rate over the past two weeks. Garcia benefits from the most-friendly opposing SO/AB, a 0.315 rate belonging to the Brewers. Two of his starts against the Brewers this season land in his top-three FanDuel scores and top-four DraftKings scores. The Brewers are currently implied to score a slate-worst 3.4 runs, and Garcia has proved his mettle against the group.
The most-expensive pitcher on DraftKings is Ivan Nova at $9,800; the most-expensive pitcher on FanDuel is Alex Cobb at $8,900. In both cases, they’ve exceeded their highest salary in our database. Both strike me as safer targets on opposing sites: Nova costs $7,600 on FanDuel and Cobb costs $6,500 on DraftKings. Nova’s 6.7 K Prediction and opposing team wOBA of 0.275 will still provide plenty of value on DraftKings, but a price hike of $2,800 over the past month based on a six-game sample with the Pirates could be supplemented elsewhere.
Left-handed pitchers facing the Rays have provided a FanDuel-best 66.7 percent Consistency this season and a +2.69 Plus/Minus. C.C. Sabathia accumulated seven strikeouts in his last start against the Rays less than one month ago with D.J. Reyburn behind home plate. Reyburn has historically aided pitchers to the tune of a +2.1 Plus/Minus on FanDuel and +1.9 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. The Rays’ 25.4 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers this season is factored into Sabathia’s slate-best 6.7 K Prediction, his highest all year.
Clayton Richard has exceeded salary-based expectations in four consecutive starts on DraftKings by offering a near-minimum salary and facing teams that struggle against left-handed pitchers. In those four starts, he pitched at least five innings, allowed a total of three runs, and never struck out more than five hitters in a single game. His slate-worst 3.7 K Prediction reduces his appeal, but at $4,700 salary on DraftKings it may be worth biting the bullet to load up on expensive hitters. Since the All-Star break, Richard leads all pitchers with a 66.2 percent ground-ball rate, and he needs to provide only 10.49 DraftKings points in order to meet expectation. Additionally, home pitchers facing the Rockies have contributed a 61.5 percent Consistency this season.
Junior Guerra was limited to 70 pitches and 3.1 innings in his last start, his first since missing a month due to elbow soreness. He may be on a pitch count again today, so if you’re going to get cute when selecting a pitcher don’t get too cute.
Early Game
One of the seven games is slated to begin slightly after noon ET.
Trevor Bauer leads all pitchers with five Pro Trends on DraftKings, 36.7 FanDuel points per game, and 83 percent FD Consistency over the past month. In his last eight starts, he recorded more than four strikeouts just once, but he’s pitched at least 6.0 innings in six straight outings.
David Paulino will make the first start of his career. He’s the wildcard. He brings a 10.6 SO/9 rate from the minors with 19 walks in 90 innings. The Indians have a slate-best 0.340 projected team wOBA and a 0.219 SO/AB, the second-lowest mark in the all-day slate. The Indians are also implied to score 4.7 runs, the second-highest mark.
Stacks
The Nationals are implied to score a slate-best 5.1 runs and currently own the top-three rated stacks on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the CSURAM88 Model.
Salary isn’t much of an issue in this slate, so we’ll select the highest-rated four-man FanDuel stack, which doubles as the most-expensive stack. It includes three of the top-six most-expensive batters and the most consistent hitter over the past month in the slate.
The highest-rated DraftKings stack that doesn’t belong to the Nationals is also the five-man group with the most combined Pro Trends.
Since the Indians play in the all-day slate, I’m including an alternative DraftKings stack from the main slate. A Padres straight 1-2-3-4-5 stack is the highest-rated stack that doesn’t belong to the Nationals or Indians.
Ryan Schimpf and Yangervis Solarte are the only members with a positive batted-ball distance differential, and Schimpf has produced an 80 percent fly-ball rate over the past 15 days while crafting a 0.370 ISO this season.
Hitters
Rain is expected to affect Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis today. Early forecasts suggest the games won’t be postponed, but there could be light showers throughout the day.
Since the beginning of June, Chris Carter leads all Brewers with a +3.94 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +5.86 Plus/Minus on FanDuel when facing left-handed pitchers. He leads all first basemen with a 0.326 ISO and 0.576 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Carter will face left-handed pitcher Jaime Garcia with the wind currently projected to blow out to center field.
David Dahl costs $3,200 on FanDuel, his lowest salary since August 14th. The Rockies will face left-handed pitcher Clayton Richard in Petco Park. In 16 road starts, Dahl has provided a +3.67 Plus/Minus on 68 percent Consistency. Dahl has started against only five left-handed pitchers this season, and in those excursions he has not supplied any Duds while returning value three times.
Jose Ramirez costs $2,900 on FanDuel, the third-lowest salary among projected third basemen. He was included in the DraftKings stack above, and he’s inexplicably cheap among third basemen: He has a 55 percent Consistency mark over the past month. His 0.369 wOBA places him second on the Indians and third among third basemen.
Mariners pitcher Taijuan Walker has served up a 2.106 HR/9 rate over the past year and has allowed 11 stolen bases this season, the most among the 14 starting options. The last time he faced the Rangers, he yielded six runs, two home runs, and two stolen bases in five innings. Rougned Odor leads his mates with a 0.257 ISO, and Elvis Andrus and Carlos Gomez both average close to 0.190 SB/G. Fading the Nationals in tournaments may ultimately lead you to the Rangers despite their much-lower 4.2 implied runs.
