Pitchers
David Price and Justin Verlander oppose teams currently implied to score 4.0 runs. Price comes out ahead in the Player Models in every category except Park Factor, average pitch velocity, and Vegas moneyline. The scales tilt in Price’s favor due to the salary discrepancy on DraftKings ($12,400 for Verlander and $10,800 for Price) and his superior K Prediction — a slate-best 7.5 compared to Verlander’s 6.1. Both Price and Verlander remain quality options, but between them, Price has five of the top-seven scores on DraftKings, as well as nine of the lowest 12. You can pay up for Verlander’s safety or take Price at a discount, but the price inflation will likely deflate Verlander’s ownership this evening.
In four starts against the Orioles this season, Price has recorded a +6.91 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +6.73 Plus/Minus on FanDuel, and J.J. Hardy is the only Oriole with a positive ISO differential against left-handed pitchers. Verlander, on the other hand, leads all pitchers with a 60 percent fly-ball rate in his last two starts. The case can be presented for Verlander on FanDuel where he’s $800 cheaper than Price. Two of Verlander’s nine highest FanDuel scores this season have come against the Twins, and his 74.2 percent Consistency on FanDuel ranks second behind only Max Scherzer. Additionally, he’ll start the second game of a doubleheader, which could work to his advantage if any of the Twins’ regulars rest the night match.
Jeff Samardzija failed to meet salary-based expectations in his previous two starts despite the best recent advanced stats among all pitchers. He’s allowed a 167-foot batted-ball distance and 64 percent ground-ball rate in that time. If you peruse the MLB Lineups page, you’ll notice a bunch of regulars missing from the Padres’ lineup. Instead, three callups — including the second- and third-best prospects in the organization — will make their season debuts. The Padres’ youth movement has inserted Samardzija into cash-game consideration.
Seth Lugo is the highest-rated pitcher on DraftKings in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models. He leads all pitchers with seven Pro Trends on FanDuel and eight Pro Trends on DraftKings. Over the past month, the Phillies rank last with a 27.4 percent strikeout rate and a 28.9 percent fly-ball rate. Admittedly, they took Chris Sale to the cleaners last night, but he still notched five strikeouts in four innings. Lugo isn’t a strikeout pitcher by trade, but he relies on one of the nastiest curveballs in the league. His salary is a little too rich on FanDuel, even if the Phillies are currently implied to score 3.5 runs, but at $6,700 on DraftKings he pairs nicely with one of Price or Verlander.
Chase Anderson has found success over the past two months and specifically against the Pirates this season. In his last 10 starts, Anderson has exceeded salary-based expectations eight times and recorded a +2.99 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +3.11 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. The majority of his success has been at Miller Park, where he’ll take the mound today. His 5.4 K Prediction initially precludes him from tournaments, but with Hunter Wendelstedt umpiring the game, Anderson benefits from the most pitcher-friendly umpire this season. Pitchers have recorded a +2.47 Plus/Minus on 69.4 percent Consistency on DraftKings and a +4.49 Plus/Minus on 66.7 percent Consistency on FanDuel this season with Wendelstedt calling the game. Despite his affinity for assisting pitchers, games officiated by Wendelstedt have garnered only 5.2 percent ownership; Anderson could be a sneaky low-owned tournament option.
Ryan Vogelsong recorded a season-high six strikeouts against the Brewers in 5.1 innings less than a month ago. He costs $4,000 on DraftKings and his 6.5 K Prediction places him third on the main slate. In his last two starts, Vogelsong has thrown strikes only 38 percent of the time, good for last among today’s pitchers. With Ryan Braun’s status questionable, Vogelsong could be a last-resort SP2 on DraftKings, especially since he will share umpire Hunter Wendelstedt with Vogelsong.
Blake Snell has already pitched a career-high 144.1 innings between the minors and majors this season. He’s been money at home, but with four of his last seven starts on the road it’s difficult to tell if his recent skid is venue- or fatigued-related. His 1.72 WHIP is offset by a slate-best 0.58 HR/9 rate, and his 6.6 K Prediction and six Pro Trends on DraftKings rank second. He’s worth a flier in tournaments at $6,400 on DraftKings based on his strikeout potential, but he’s too risky to rely on in cash formats.
Limitations
Per Royals manager Ned Yost, Jason Vargas won’t exceed 65-70 pitches in his second start since returning from Tommy John surgery. He was pulled after 52 pitches in his previous outing.
Stacks
The top-two stacks on FanDuel and DraftKings using the CSURAM88 Model belong to the Astros and Mets. In both instances, the cheaper stack is highlighted.
The Mets stack is $1,300 cheaper than the Astros stack on FanDuel and the cheapest of the top-five rated stacks. It includes the top-two rated players in the CSURAM88 Model and the leader in Pro Trends. All four hitters have a fly-ball rate of at least 50 percent over the past 15 days, and Phillies right-handed pitcher Adam Morgan, who harbors a 1.871 HR/9 rate over the past year, surrendered three home runs to the Mets less than a month ago.
George Springer leads all hitters with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings, Yulieski Gurriel was profiled in yesterday’s breakdown, Evan Gattis hit two home runs last night, and the Astros lead all teams with a 76 Team Value Rating.
Hitters
Mookie Betts could name his price and I’d still roster him against the Orioles. In 18 starts against them, Betts has supplied a +6.23 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +9.33 Plus/Minus on FanDuel this season. Despite the 72.2 percent Consistency on FanDuel, his salary dropped to $3,900 — a yearly low against the Orioles. You also can’t forget about David Ortiz facing a right-handed pitcher in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. In 24 games since 2014, he’s met salary-based expectations half the time while providing a +2.69 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +2.85 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Justin Upton leads all everyday players with an average batted-ball distance of 272 feet over the past 15 days. He’ll need to play in the second game of the doubleheader, but as long as that occurs, he’ll matchup with a pitcher whose fly-ball rate increased by 11 percent over the past two weeks. The Tigers may be without Ian Kinsler (concussion) and Victor Martinez (knee) again, so Upton may have to be used as a standalone tournament option on DraftKings at $3,700.
Domingo Santana leads all outfielders with a 53 percent hard-hit rate and 96-MPH exit velocity over the past 15 days. His salary has skyrocketed, but it’s relatively cheaper on FanDuel at $3,300. With Ryan Braun (personal) out of the lineup the past two games, Santana has hit cleanup both times. Should Braun miss another contest, Santana could offer value as a cleanup hitter based on his recent hard-hit rate.
Yankees right-handed pitcher Luis Cessa has started only six games this season, but in three appearances against the Rays, he’s surrendered 10 runs and five home runs. The Rays are implied to score only 4.3 runs, so they’ll likely go underutilized in tournaments. The top-five hitters in the projected order all possess a Bargain Rating greater than 80 percent on FanDuel. Even an abbreviated 3-4-5 stack offers a minimum ISO of 0.259 against right-handed pitchers.
Good luck!
