We have a split 10-game slate with two afternoon matches and an eight-game main slate.
Pitchers
Johnny Cueto leads all pitchers with seven Pro Trends on DraftKings and six Pro Trends on FanDuel. As mentioned earlier this season, he doesn’t provide much upside at home. AT&T Park allows him to pitch to contact, and it’s resulted in a 6.9 SO/9 at home and a 8.8 SO/9 on the road this season. Today he has a 5.7 K Prediction but is still the safest option on a slate that doesn’t offer much pitching depth. Take solace in his slate-best 69 percent ground-ball rate and 53 percent strike rate in his last two starts and a decrease of $1,100 salary on DraftKings.
Rich Hill was pulled after throwing fewer than 90 pitches in his last two starts while compiling 17 strikeouts and allowing one hit. He hasn’t allowed a run in his last 24 innings pitched, but he’s dealt with multiple blisters in that time. He’s the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel ($9,700) and DraftKings ($12,000), and his salary on DraftKings represents his highest price in our database. Based on his recent advanced stats and the potential for a recurring blister, I’d focus on Hill primarily in tournaments, even if his 9.7 K Prediction and the Dodgers’ -190 Vegas moneyline invites cash game exposure. Manager Dave Roberts will err on the side of caution when it comes to the 36-year-old pitcher, and any signs of a raised blister will cut short his outing.
Mike Montgomery has plenty going for him. He has a 7.6 K Prediction and has limited opponents to 155-foot batted-ball distance and 62 percent ground-ball rate over the past 15 days. The wind is projected to blow eight miles per hour towards third base. And the Cubs’ moneyline currently sits at -205. He costs $4,700 on DraftKings and faces a team he limited to one run and two hits in five innings in his last start. He’s also the 10th-most expensive pitcher on FanDuel at $6,700. He profiles as the premier second pitcher on DraftKings and salary relief cash-game threat on FanDuel.
Eduardo Ramirez leads all pitchers with a 24 percent hard-hit rate over the past 15 days, and only one Yankee in the projected lineup carries a positive Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and Isolated Power (ISO) differential against left-handed pitchers. The eighth and ninth hitters are the only Yankees with positive hard-hit differentials in the past 13 games, and Rodriguez has sustained a +8.97 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +8.71 Plus/Minus on FanDuel in two starts against the Yankees this season. He may not rate highly in the Player Models or K Prediction, but his recent advanced stats and performance against the Yankees this season require your attention on DraftKings at $5,900.
Masahiro Tanaka hasn’t allowed more than two runs in his last five starts, and the last time he faced the Red Sox he accumulated seven strikeouts in six innings while limiting them to one run. He’s another pitcher who doesn’t rate highly in the Models, especially with the Yankees presently being underdogs. His salary isn’t doing him favors either ($9,600 on DraftKings and FanDuel). In 11 starts in which he’s cost more than $9,400 on FanDuel this season, Tanaka has provided a -4.79 Plus/Minus on 36.4 percent Consistency. With other options similarly priced, Tanaka will likely get lost in the shuffle.
Narrative Street is in play, but it’s not one I’ve researched. Chad Kuhl will pitch in front of over 100 friends and family members in Philadelphia. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in seven straight starts, but his 6.096 SO/9 and slate-worst 34 percent increase in hard-hit rate are deplorable.
Limitations
Jared Eickhoff is being monitored as the season dwindles. He’s already pitched a career-high 173.1 innings, and he was pulled after throwing fewer than 90 pitches in his last two starts.
Mike Pelfrey is expected to be limited to 60 pitches in his first start since July 31st. More on him later.
Mike Clevinger won’t have a strict pitch limit after consecutive games tossing fewer than 70 pitches, but manager Terry Francona isn’t expecting a “real high number.” In nine innings pitched against the White Sox this season, Clevinger has recorded eight strikeouts and allowed seven earned runs.
Stacks
The top-rated stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to some variation of the Indians. Since they are only eligible in the all-day slate, I thought it wiser to select from teams participating in the main slate.
On FanDuel, the top-rated four-man stack belongs to the Dodgers at $12,800, the cheapest of the top-six rated stacks. The Dodgers have cultivated a +1.94 Plus/Minus on 49.5 percent Consistency on DraftKings and a +2.61 Plus/Minus on 49.2 percent Consistency against the Diamondbacks this season. The players in the projected lineup elevate the cumulative Plus/Minus to +2.20 on DraftKings and +2.90 on FanDuel. The top six hitters in the projected lineup possess a Bargain Rating no lower than 82 percent on FanDuel.
Josh Donaldson is currently listed as questionable after missing the previous three games with a jammed hip, but since the next tier of stacks involves the Tigers, a team playing in the afternoon, we’ll go with it. Russell Martin is expected to return to the lineup following a routine day off, and that may salvage this Blue Jays 1-2-3-4-5 luggage combination stack.
Hitters
Brian Dozier won’t stop hitting home runs, and his 19.2 FanDuel points, 14.6 DraftKings points, and 64 percent Consistency over the past month lead all hitters with at least 11 games played. He’s recorded a hit in 18 straight games, and since the beginning of August he leads all hitters with a +8.15 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Additionally, the Twins lead all teams with 28 home runs over the past two weeks, yet they are only currently implied to score 4.4 runs against Mike Pelfrey, who will be on a pitch count, offers a 1.793 WHIP, and surrendered two home runs the last time he faced the Twins.
James Shields has allowed 17 homes runs in his last seven starts. That may explain why the Indians rate as the best stacks on FanDuel and DraftKings. They currently lead all teams with 5.6 implied runs, and Jose Ramirez enters the contest with a hit in 11 straight games. Between Carlos Santana and Mike Napoli, Santana introduces less risk, but he also costs $800 more on DraftKings. Despite negative differentials over the past 15 days, Napoli’s advanced stats compare favorably to Santana’s. Although he only has five hits in his last 43 at-bats, four have been home runs, and he faces the messiah of home run benevolence.
Jarrod Dyson has reached based in 13 straight games, and he leads all hitters with 73 percent Consistency on FanDuel over the past 30 days by starting against right-handed pitchers only. The Royals are currently implied to score 4.9 runs, and Dyson costs $2,700 on FanDuel, a small increase since he took over the leadoff spot in the Royals’ lineup. Three of the top four hitters in the projected order claim a Bargain Rating of at least 93 percent on FanDuel, and the holdout, Whit Merrifield, leads the teams with a 239-foot batted-ball average in his last 10 starts.
Anthony Rizzo will cost $3,600 on FanDuel, a salary he’s hit only 14 times this season. His average FanDuel points over the past 30 days (11.1) aligns with the salary, and he snapped a streak of nine games without an extra base hit by hitting two home runs yesterday. Most of the hitters who’ve experienced a drastic price reduction possess negative wOBA and ISO Differentials, but Rizzo exhibits a 0.397 wOBA and 0.262 ISO against right-handed pitchers.
Keon Broxton has two things working in his favor: A 53 percent hard-hit rate over the past 15 days and also a +4.56 Plus/Minus on FanDuel and a +3.16 Plus/Minus on DraftKings against left-handed pitchers this season. Because he’s prone to the strikeout, it’s best to deploy Broxton in tournaments. The implied run totals in the Brewers-Cubs games hasn’t been released yet, but with the Brewers current 188 moneyline, the public will likely fade the underdogs.
Good luck!
