On the first day of September, MLB active rosters expand to 40 players. Only eight teams are scheduled to play today. A 12:00pm ET matchup is followed up by three evening games.
Pitchers
fadeGrom?
Jacob deGrom is the fourth-most expensive pitcher on DraftKings at $9,000 and the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel at $10,000. He’s the highest-rated pitcher in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models by a significant margin. The Mets are -187 favorites, and the Marlins are currently implied to score a slate-worst 3.2 runs. It might seem like an open-and-shut case, but deGrom has allowed 13 runs and 25 hits in his last two starts for a total of -5.05 DraftKings points. In his most recent matchup with the Marlins on July 23rd, deGrom surrendered 10 hits and five earned runs in 3.2 innings. Among pitchers on today’s slate, his 220-foot batted-ball distance allowed over the past 15 days ranks last, and it would have placed 25th in Wednesday’s slate.
deGrom’s turn in the rotation was recently skipped, so he’ll pitch on seven days rest. That amount of rest has historically worked in his favor, and he’s spent the time recalibrating his mechanics. Pitching at Citi Field is another positive indicator: He’s garnered an 83.3 percent Consistency rate in 12 home starts this season on both DFS sites with a +7.05 Plus/Minus on FanDuel and +4.68 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. His most recent encounter against the Marlins, much like his last two starts, came on the road.
If There Are Eight Pitchers and You Take Away One, How Many Pitchers Do You Have?
Jose Quintana leads all pitchers with a K Prediction of 6.5. He has faced the Twins twice over the past two months, and in those starts he has recorded eight and nine strikeouts. Over his last 11 starts, Quintana has pitched at least 6.0 innings and exceeded salary-based expectations nine times while providing a +6.63 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Fading deGrom will ultimately lead you to Quintana.
Ervin Santana claims the best recent advanced stats on the slate, yet he squares off against the White Sox and their slate-best 0.325 projected team wOBA. In three previous starts against the White Sox this season, Santana has posted an 8.300 SO/9 rate, which is a bump from his yearly average of 7.181. In the two home starts, he exceeded salary-based expectations. Pairing Santana with his opposing starting pitcher (Quintana) in tournaments on DraftKings is a way to differentiate lineups. That tactic may normally be more prevalent on smaller slates like today, but both pitchers possess a DK Bargain Rating of less than 20 percent and Santana costs $200 more than deGrom, likely reducing the former’s ownership.
Mike Montgomery is the cheapest option on FanDuel ($5,800) and DraftKings ($4,000). His seven DraftKings Pro Trends and five FanDuel Pro Trends slot behind only deGrom. Montgomery has shuffled between the rotation and bullpen this season, which may have artificially inflated his strikeout rate. In his two-year career, he’s concocted a 6.800 SO/9 in 20 starts and an 8.500 SO/9 in 37 relief appearances. The opposing Giants have cultivated a league-best 18.1 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers this season, limiting Montgomery’s strikeout upside, but their 21.6 percent soft contact rate ranks dead last. The Cubs are -160 favorites, and Montgomery needs only 23.66 FanDuel points or 9.48 DraftKings points to hit salary-based expectations.
Michael Foltynewicz is the only pitcher on the slate to register at least six strikeouts in his last three starts. Further, he’s one of only three starting pitchers to notch at least six strikeouts against the Giants in their last 19 games, and he now faces a Padres team with a slate-worst 0.272 SO/AB average. He costs $10,000 on DraftKings, $1,400 more than his previous high in our database. Had he been priced that high in all his starts, Foltynewicz would have met expectations in only six of his 17 outings this season. He’s more reasonably priced on FanDuel ($7,000), and that salary aligns more closely with his 6.1 K Prediction and invites higher levels of ownership.
Stacks
The 11 highest-rated four-man stacks on FanDuel and 11 five-man stacks on DraftKings belong to the Mets and Braves. The top-11 highest-rated players in the CSURAM88 Model belong to the Mets or Braves. Both teams rank first or second in implied runs.
The highest-rated Braves FanDuel stack includes four players with a 99 percent Bargain Rating. Adonis Garcia is the only one with an Upside mark less than 23 percent over the last month; Ender Inciarte is the top-rated hitter in the Models.
The top-rated five-man Mets stack on DraftKings is the fourth-highest rated overall. Jay Bruce is the only hitter in the Mets’ projected lineup with a negative batted-ball distance differential in the last 15 days. In 23 games with the Mets, he’s supplied a -3.35 Plus/Minus on 17.4 percent Consistency. Consider condensing this into a four-man stack in cash games.
Hitters
Ryan Schimpf leads all hitters with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel and 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings. He’s hit the ball an average of 295 feet over the past 15 days, roughly 35 feet shy of Turner Field’s right field fence. He leads all regulars with a 0.405 wOBA and 0.377 ISO against right-handed pitchers, and his 74 percent fly-ball rate over the past 15 days is at least 20 percent higher than the next closest everyday player.
Jose Abreu has reached base in 27 straight games. In that duration, he has curated a +3.39 Plus/Minus on 51.9 percent Consistency on FanDuel. The last time the White Sox faced right-handed pitcher Ervin Santana, Abreu rested. Assuming he doesn’t sit against Santana for the second time in a month, deploy with impunity.
Shortstop boils down to Asdrubal Cabrera or the field on FanDuel. The top-five highest-rated shortstops are priced within $500 of each other, and Cabrera leads them all with a 52 percent hard-hit rate over the last 15 days.
Marcell Ozuna may not play after exiting Wednesday’s game due to a sore left wrist. If he rests, Adeiny Hechavarria becomes the only member of the lineup to offer a positive hard-hit rate differential over the past 15 days. The rest of the crew is slumping, and that may provide a glimpse into deGrom’s projected dominance.
