Unlike yesterday, today features only one pitcher (Justin Verlander) who costs at least $11,000 at DraftKings. In fact, only two pitchers in this entire slate eclipse the $10,000 mark, which leaves a number of options that can be had for relatively cheap.
More on that later.
For now, let’s start with the batters and go in-depth on some of the more expensive hitters and stacks this slate has to offer. Here are the top five in no particular order.
Five Stacks of Five
(Side Note: You can stack only four batters on FanDuel: 1) I didn’t want to title this section “Five Stacks of Four” and lose the symmetry. 2) I didn’t want to title it “Four Stacks of Four” and lose one of the teams. 3) If you’re stacking on FanDuel, adjust accordingly.)
Red Sox: Mookie Betts-Dustin Pedroia-Xander Bogaerts-David Ortiz-Jackie Bradley
The Red Sox are the only team with an implied Vegas total of at least five runs tonight, and Tyler Wilson has allowed three or more runs in each of his last five starts, averaging only 5.3 DraftKings points in that span. Boston’s projected lineup has a slate-high .293 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB) — but Wilson is averaging a slate-low 4.43 strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9) and is the lowest-Rated pitcher in the Bales Model. He has also received only 31 percent of moneyline bets so far.
It’s easy to argue that Ortiz, who’s slugging .690 versus right-handed pitching, is the strongest option here, but Bogaerts is in a terrific position, as well. Just note his average of 11.1 DraftKings points in the past month, the most among shortstops in this slate. He has also produced a +4.14 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over his last 10 games.
Per our advanced stats, Betts has recorded a lowly 175-foot batted-ball distance in the past 15 days, but at least his .543 slugging percentage is still top-10 at his position. His average of 13 DraftKings points over the last month is 1.9 higher than anyone else’s at his position.
However, as long as the Red Sox’s implied total doesn’t budge, their hitters will likely be the highest-owned of the night. If that is the case, consider Hanley Ramirez as a tournament pivot play away from Ortiz. Ramirez has a -0.093 Isolated Power (ISO) Differential against right-handed pitching, but he has averaged 11.4 DraftKings points over his last five games. Travis Shaw would be a less enticing pivot, since his batted-ball distance in the last 15 days trails his yearly average by 44 feet.
Nationals: Ben Revere-Jayson Werth-Bryce Harper-Daniel Murphy-Wilson Ramos
I normally give a pitcher the benefit of the doubt when starting at Coors Field, but in his San Diego debut (against the Rockies) Erik Johnson allowed a 247-foot batted-ball distance and 47-percent hard-hit rate. He has allowed 0.98 more HR/9 in the past year than any other pitcher in the slate. That alone is reason enough to forget about Werth’s -0.206 ISO Differential, especially since he has averaged a +3.84 Plus/Minus at DraftKings recently.
And the Nationals’ remaining first four hitters still have a positive ISO Differential versus right-handed pitching. Revere’s .352 slugging percentage isn’t nearly as high as that of the others, but his .164 steals per game is top-seven at his position. And Harper, despite having a -1.76 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in his last 10 games, has a .588 slugging percentage. Also, if Stephen Drew happens to start then he’s probably preferable to Ramos on account of his 96-MPH exit velocity in his last four starts — but he probably won’t start.
Royals: Whit Merrifield-Alcides Escobar-Lorenzo Cain-Salvador Perez-Kendrys Morales
Justin Verlander has been a beacon of Consistency recently, exceeding salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 starts, including five straight. Even so, the Royals’ implied total has already risen 0.3 runs this morning despite receiving only 44 percent of moneyline bets. Needless to say, enough of their hitters have positive splits versus right-handed pitching that exposure against Verlander isn’t the worst idea.
Take Perez, for instance. His 252-foot batted-ball distance and 95 MPH exit velocity in the last 15 days are both the highest among starting catchers. Escobar is only slugging .297 against righties, but note his 96 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings. And although Eric Hosmer has an .083 wOBA Differential and .528 slugging percentage tonight, his recent 194-foot batted-ball distance is low enough that pivoting to Morales, who’s likely to have a lower ownership than Hosmer, is perfectly viable.
Plus/Minus, Pro Trend, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Dodgers: Chase Utley-Corey Seager-Justin Turner-Trayce Thompson-Joc Pederson
Opposing pitcher Junior Guerra has a Consistency of 75 percent this season but has failed to meet expectations by -1.78 points in his last three starts. That’s concerning, if only because Utley, Seager, Turner, and Thompson are all averaging an exit velocity of at least 92 MPH in the last 15 days. Turner has a -0.034 ISO Differential, but note his +3.00 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over his last 10 games. His 95-MPH exit velocity is also tied with Evan Longoria’s and David Freese’s for the highest among third basemen.
Rangers: Rougned Odor-Ian Desmond-Nomar Mazara-Adrian Beltre-Mitch Moreland
The Rangers implied total has dropped 0.5 runs despite receiving 85 percent of moneyline bets. Reverse line movement to that extent is certainly worrisome, but they’re still implied to score 4.2 runs. Furthermore, a majority of their hitters have standout splits against righties.
Leading off in place of Shin-Soo Choo today, note Odor’s 240-foot recent batted-ball distance. His 11 Pro Trends are also two more than anyone else at second base. As for Desmond, he is hitting the ball on average 30 feet farther over the last 15 days than he has over the last year. And Mazara’s splits tell the story, as his .401 wOBA and .159 ISO Differential are both top-10 in this slate. Finally, Moreland has quietly averaged a 246-foot batted-ball distance in the last 15 days, which is equivalent to Joey Votto’s in that span.
About Those Cheap Pitchers
As promised.
Scott Kazmir, LAD
Not only does Kazmir lead his position with 10 Pro Trends, but the Brewers’ projected lineup has a bottom-two SO/AB of .286. Furthermore, they’re implied to score the fewest runs tonight.
James Paxton, SEA
Paxton’s average of 13.40 SO/9 is 2.6 higher than that of the next pitcher. What’s more intriguing is that Evan Longoria, who’s slugging .583 against left-handed pitching, is questionable tonight. If he’s out, Tampa Bay’s projected lineup should see its .283 SO/AB only increase.
Danny Duffy, KC
Duffy hasn’t surpassed 90 pitches in any of his last three starts, but he has still managed to produce a +14.44 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in those games. For only $7,000, Duffy is certainly worth a flier tonight, considering that he has averaged 19.8 points in the last month and is facing Detroit, which has the lowest Team Value Rating tonight.
Colby Lewis, TEX
If Texas’ line does revert back to where it initially stood, Lewis isn’t a bad play. Note that Lewis has produced a +5.39 Plus/Minus at DraftKings when facing Oakland.
CC Sabathia, NYY
Despite exceeding expectations by +14.08 points per game at FanDuel over his last six starts, Sabathia still has a 98-percent Bargain Rating there. His batted-ball distance allowed in the last two weeks is also the lowest among available pitchers.
Good luck!
