As Tropical Storm Hermine lingers on the East Coast, all 15 games today are projected for no more than a five percent chance of precipitation.
Pitchers
Yu Darvish has tallied 15 strikeouts in 12 innings against the Astros this season while limiting them to one run. He leads all pitchers today with an 8.1 K Prediction, and his recent advanced stats have trended in a positive direction. Jose Altuve (calf) and Marwin Gonzalez (hamstring) are currently questionable, leaving the second base position in flux and potentially removing two of the four Astros with the lowest SO/AB rates on the team. Look for Darvish’s K Prediction to increase should Altuve — who is 5-for-25 against Darvish in his career — take a day off.
In his most recent start against the Rays, J.A. Happ pitched six shutout innings and added seven strikeouts. The Rays’ 25.6 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers this season leads the majors, and left-handed pitchers have crafted a +3.56 Plus/Minus on 68.0 percent Consistency on FanDuel against the Rays this season. Happ has failed to exceed salary-based expectations in two consecutive starts for the second time all season, but he’s currently the top-rated FanDuel pitcher in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.
Chris Archer has supplied at least six strikeouts in nine straight starts. He faces the team with the highest-projected wOBA (0.349) on the slate, but in three previous starts against the Blue Jays, Archer accumulated 23 strikeouts while limiting them to two earned runs in each contest. He leads all pitchers on the slate with a 67 percent ground-ball rate in his last two starts, and his 94 Park Factor trails only Steven Brault‘s mark today. The Rays are currently marginal underdogs to the Blue Jays, and even though Archer leads the league with 17 losses, he’s still managed to lead all pitchers on the slate with 44.6 FanDuel points per game over the last month. Deploy him in tournaments on both DFS sites.
Danny Salazar benefits from the Indians’ slate-best -215 moneyline and the Marlins’ league-worst 51.5 percent ground-ball rate and .123 team ISO over the past month. His recent run of flops was halted by a 10-strikeout performance last time out, but he hasn’t pitched more than 5.1 innings in any of his last five starts. The Marlins’ team 0.185 SO/AB rate is the second-lowest on the slate, and that has translated into a 5.4 K Prediction for Salazar today. Salazar makes more sense on FanDuel where the elevated chance at a win provides dividends.
Carlos Martinez leads the expensive pitching crop in recent advanced stats. He’s limited his last three opponents to a run each while accumulating 25 strikeouts. Over the past two starts, Martinez has produced a 59 percent ground-ball rate and limited opponents to an average of 170 feet on batted balls. Martinez has enjoyed more success on the road the past two seasons, supplying an +8.58 Plus/Minus with 69.2 percent Consistency on FanDuel and +5.61 Plus/Minus with 72.0 percent Consistency on DraftKings in those starts.
Jon Gray and Tyler Anderson are the only Rockies pitchers to provide a positive Plus/Minus at Coors Field this season. After a recent blip that was foreshadowed by poor batted-ball distance and fly-ball rates, Gray has rebounded nicely. In his last Coors Field start, Gray struck out eight and pitched six shutout innings. His 7.2 K Prediction at $7,100 on DraftKings and $7,700 on FanDuel coaxes tournament shares, especially at 75.0 percent home Consistency on FanDuel.
Left-handed pitchers average a league-best +3.12 Plus/Minus and 68.0 percent Consistency against the Los Angeles Dodgers this year on DraftKings. The Consistency maintains on FanDuel, but the Plus/Minus improves to +4.73 and average ownership comes in at five percent, the 21st-highest mark. The Dodgers’ 0.280 team wOBA against left-handed pitchers this season ranks last in the majors. Left-handed pitcher Christian Friedrich will face the Dodgers for the third time this season; he’s had varied levels of success in the first two tilts.
The last 16 left-handed pitchers who have faced the Athletics have offered a +3.41 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 62.5 percent Consistency and a +5.55 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. The Athletics have also scored the fewest runs (162) since the All-Star break. These markers bode well for left-handed pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez, who, despite allowing five earned runs in his last start, improved upon his yearly advanced stats. Command was the issue last time out, and the Athletics’ 6.9 percent walk rate since the All-Star break ranks 28th.
The Padres are last in the majors with a 26.7 percent strikeout rate and 0.280 wOBA over the past 30 days. Rookie Jose De Leon will make the first start of his career, and he’s currently the second-highest rated pitcher on DraftKings in the CSURAM88 Model. His 11.6 SO/9 in Triple-A action has resulted in a 6.0 K Prediction today, and the Padres are currently implied to score 3.3 runs. Manager Dave Roberts hasn’t vocalized a pitch count, and De Leon has only worked 86.1 innings all season.
Tropical Storm Hermine will affect the winds, currently projected to blow in 12 miles per hour towards home plate at Citi Field tonight. Wind gusts are expected to elevate up to 25 miles per hour. Both pitchers in the Nationals-Mets game, Reynaldo Lopez and Seth Lugo, cost less than $5,000 on DraftKings and $7,000 on FanDuel. The Mets are currently implied to score 4.3 runs, which makes Lopez a tournament-only play despite the low price tag. Lugo is a bit more interesting: His 6.5 K Prediction combined with his minimum salary has historically yielded a +1.82 Plus/Minus on 56.8 percent Consistency for pitchers with similar credentials.
Stacks
Nine of the top-rated five-man stacks on DraftKings using the CSURAM88 Model revolve around the Rockies, Diamondbacks, and Indians. Since the Indians aren’t playing at Coors Field and they’re currently implied to score the same number of runs as the Diamondbacks, let’s view their top-rated stack.
The top-rated four-man FD stack using the Isolated Power (ISO) option belongs to the Cardinals. Opposing right-handed pitcher Tim Adleman has served up eight home runs in his seven starts, resulting in a 2.051 HR/9 average. The Cardinals are currently implied to score 4.9 runs, and all four members of this stack possess a FD Bargain Rating of at least 90 percent. Lastly, Great American Ball Park has conceded a league-high 192 home runs and an average of 2.87 per game.
Hitters
A.J. Pollock costs $3,600 and Daniel Descalso costs $3,400 on DraftKings in a Coors Field game. Pollock will likely bat second for a team currently implied to score 5.2 runs, and Descalso projects to bat eighth for a team currently implied to score 7.0 runs. Both players sit on the correct side of their splits. Jake Lamb leads all hitters today with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings and eight Pro Trends on FanDuel. He’s provided only 30.0 percent Consistency since August 1st and has averaged 6.4 DraftKings points over the past month, but he leads the Diamondbacks with a 42 percent hard-hit rate and an increase of 42 feet in his batted-ball distance over the past 15 days.
The White Sox and Twins are both implied to score 5.3 runs, and every hitter in both projected lineups carries at least five Pro Trends on DraftKings. Probable starters Andrew Albers and Anthony Ranaudo lead all pitchers with 3.564 HR/9 and 2.681 HR/9 rates, respectively. Brian Dozier has supplied four home runs in his last five starts with 66.0 percent Consistency on DraftKings and 42 percent Upside on FanDuel over the past month. Tim Anderson leads all participants with a 0.371 wOBA and 0.517 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers.
Billy Hamilton has recorded a +9.29 Plus/Minus on FanDuel and +7.39 Plus/Minus on DraftKings this season against the Cardinals. Fifteen of his 58 stolen bases have come against the Cardinals, and in his career he’s stolen 23 out of 25 bases with Yadier Molina behind the plate.
Dee Gordon costs $2,500 on FanDuel, his cheapest salary since September of 2013. The reduction matches his recent production, as he’s 3-of-37 in his last 10 games with a -6.32 Plus/Minus over that span. In the 12 previous games he was priced no more than $2,600, Gordon provided a +4.20 Plus/Minus on 66.7 percent Consistency.
Nationals manager Mike Maddux pushed Max Scherzer to Monday and replaced him in the rotation with Reynaldo Lopez. Every hitter in the Mets’ projected lineup possesses a Bargain Rating of at least 63 percent on DraftKings, and they are priced as if they are facing Scherzer. Asdrubal Cabrera costs $3,300 on DraftKings. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 12 games while leading all shortstops with 12.6 DraftKings points per game the past month. He leads all regular shortstops in every recent advanced stat category, highlighted by his 51 percent hard-hit rate over the past 12 games. Weather will surely play a factor, but Lopez’s 1.762 WHIP in his five career starts can be exploited.
