Note: The Braves-Marlins contest has been canceled due to the tragic news of Jose Fernandez’s death.
Pitchers
The five pitchers currently projected to strike out at least 7.5 batters won’t face any of the four teams that are presently implied to score less than 4.0 runs.
It’s possible that Jon Lester is simultaneously the safest and riskiest option on the slate. Lester has pitched at least 6.0 innings and allowed no more than two runs in 10 straight starts while meeting salary-based expectations in seven straight starts. At Wrigley Field, Lester has accounted for a +5.55 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +8.56 Plus/Minus on FanDuel this season. Against the Cardinals this season, Lester has averaged a strikeout per inning. All the numbers indicate Lester should be fairly high-owned. However, the current forecast shows a 51 percent chance of precipitation, and with the game scheduled to begin after every other contest concludes, it might just be too risky for cash games.
Tyler Anderson is a left-handed pitcher who will face the Dodgers, a team that struggles against left-handed pitchers. Rather than rehash the Dodgers’ numbers against left-handed pitchers, I’ll focus on Anderson’s slate-best 8.0 K Prediction. In his previous two starts against the Dodgers (both in Coors Field), Anderson limited them to two total runs while recording 11 strikeouts in 13.1 innings. Anderson hasn’t been as good on the road, but with Mark Ripperger calling the balls and strikes, pitchers have been quite successful this season: They’ve met salary-based expectation 59.3 percent of the time on DraftKings and 62.5 percent of the time on FanDuel.
Dylan Bundy has crafted a +5.87 Plus/Minus on FanDuel and a +5.70 Plus/Minus on DraftKings at home this season, and the Orioles are presently -245 favorites. The two times Bundy failed to meet salary-based expectations at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, he faced the Red Sox. Coincidentally, Bundy opposed the Red Sox in his last two starts and surrendered three home runs and eight runs. He’s been priced down to $5,500 on DraftKings after his recent string of poor outings, but his advanced stats align with his yearly numbers sans a four percent increase in hard-hit rate. The Diamondbacks are currently implied to score 3.7 runs, roughly 2.2 runs fewer than the Orioles, which puts Bundy into play on FanDuel at $6,900.
The only Mets pitcher to last more than 5.2 innings over the past 10 games is Bartolo Colon, and he did it twice in that span. In the eight games Colon didn’t start, the starters threw 32 innings — roughly 4.0 per outing — and manager Terry Collins called upon 45 relievers. Robert Gsellman will start today, and he’s lasted into the sixth inning in his previous two starts. Collins will either rely on Gsellman to bail out the bullpen or he’ll work the matchups. Either way, Joe West — the umpire, not the fictional character on The Flash — will be calling the game. He’s a hitter-friendly umpire, causing pitchers to record a -1.36 Plus/Minus on 47.5 percent Consistency on FanDuel and a -1.38 Plus/Minus on 46 percent Consistency on DraftKings.
Taijuan Walker’s 73 percent ground-ball rate in his last two starts leads all pitchers on the slate. Walker was roughed up physically in his last outing, taking a line drive to the right bicep and aggravating an ankle injury fielding bunts. His recent success can be attributed to revamped mechanics following a September 3rd drubbing by the Angels. Over the past two weeks, the Twins rank last with a 28.9 percent strikeout rate and a 0.261 wOBA. We’re dealing with extremely small sample sizes in both cases, however, and rostering Walker requires reliance on his new mechanics and inertia on the Twins part. Umpire Jerry Layne won’t make it easy on Walker: Over the past two seasons, pitchers have produced a -4.83 Plus/Minus on 44.7 percent Consistency on FanDuel and a -3.37 Plus/Minus on 43.6 percent Consistency on DraftKings.
Ty Blach will make his first career start in place of Johnny Cueto, who’s sidelined with a strained left groin. He costs $3,000 on FanDuel, a price point that has resulted in a +3.51 Plus/Minus on 52.8 percent Consistency over the past two seasons. Blach’s 6.3 SO/9 in the minors this season doesn’t offer much upside, but the Padres’ slate-worst 0.337 SO/9 has presented Blach with a 7.5 K Prediction. That is the highest projection for a $3,000 pitcher this season. Blach also costs $4,400 on DraftKings, but after the way the Padres handled Madison Bumgarner last night, Blach should be used judiciously in tournaments.
Tyler Glasnow may face a stripped down version of the Nationals lineup after they clinched the NL East Division last night. A quick turnaround to a 1:35 pm ET start time may ultimately induce widespread rest. Glasnow’s current 7.8 K Prediction will likely rise should manager Dusty Baker follow through and sit his starters. Glasnow has made three straight relief appearances against the Reds, and there has been no public mention of a pitch limit. He’s too pricey on DraftKings to go all in, but at $4,400 on FanDuel, he’s worth a flier.
Limitations
Oakland manager Bob Melvin mentioned last week that Jharel Cotton and yesterday’s starter, Raul Alcantara, would be limited to 90 pitches or six to seven innings the rest of the season. True to his word, Cotton was removed in the sixth inning of his last start and Alcantara was pulled in the same inning yesterday despite tossing 79 pitches. Cotton will face a Rangers team that rested seven of their everyday starters the day before.
Stacks
The top-two stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings using the CSURAM88 Model belong to the Orioles and Astros.
This iteration of the Orioles stack costs $1,300 less than the Astros’ grouping. It also excludes Manny Machado. However, it does include four of the top-seven rated hitters in the CSURAM88 Model.
Diamondbacks starter Braden Shipley claims the worst combination of WHIP (1.597), HR/9 (1.875), and SO/9 (5.313) on the slate. Nine of the 12 home runs he’s allowed have been launched by left-handed hitters. Enter Chris Davis. He has five hits in his last 43 at-bats, yet his recent advanced stats align with his yearly advanced stats.
Daniel Wright challenges Shipley’s combination of stats with a 1.887 WHIP, 1.698 HR/9, and a 4.075 SO/9 in his career. George Springer leads the Astros with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and three of the top-four rated hitters in the CSURAM88 Model belong to the Astros.
Hitters
Khris Davis leads all everyday players with a 61 percent hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Rangers pitcher Colby Lewis leads all pitchers on the slate with a 43 percent hard-hit rate in his previous two starts. In his last outing, Lewis surrendered one of Davis’ two home runs.
Adam Duvall’s recent advanced stats belie his -2.59 Plus/Minus on 21.7 percent Consistency on FanDuel and -2.96 Plus/Minus on 13.6 percent Consistency on DraftKings over the past 23 games. Duvall leads the Reds with a 51 percent hard-hit rate, 57 percent fly-ball rate, and an average batted-ball distance of 247 feet over the past 12 games. In 17 games against the Brewers this season, Duvall has registered a +4.38 Plus/Minus on FanDuel and a +2.26 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Cesar Hernandez has reached base in 26 straight games and Maikel Franco has hit a home run in three straight games. The Phillies aren’t expected to do well according to their Vegas data, but they’ve scored no fewer than five runs in their last five games. At 3.6 implied runs, tournament shares from a scorching offense with Joe West behind the plate wouldn’t be foolhardy. And if Terry Collins decides to rely on the bullpen, I am going to pull my hair out.
Good luck today.
