Four of the 15 contests today are expected to deal with rain. The Nationals-Braves game could be delayed, but the forecast suggests all games should be completed.
Pitchers
One team is currently implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs. Seven teams are currently implied to score at least 5.0 runs.
Kyle Hendricks has garnered a +13.84 Plus/Minus with 84.6 percent Consistency on FanDuel and +8.43 Plus/Minus with 83.3 percent Consistency on DraftKings at Wrigley Field this season. In his last eight starts, Hendricks has allowed no more than two runs while pitching at least six innings, and in his most recent outing he carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning. He’s the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings ($12,900) and FanDuel ($10,100), and both salaries represent his highest cost in our database. However, Kendricks’ recent advanced stats require further inspection. I wouldn’t label Hendricks an automatic fade, but pitchers with a similar DraftKings salary and advanced stats have provided a +0.04 Plus/Minus on 50 percent Consistency.
We have the makings of a pitching duel in Kansas City. Left-handed pitchers Danny Duffy and Jose Quintana will benefit from having umpire Hunter Wendelstedt calling the game. Historically, pitchers have produced a +1.86 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +2.27 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with Wendelstedt behind the plate. In 2016, pitchers have done even better: They’ve posted a +3.04 Plus/Minus on 70.2 percent Consistency on DraftKings and a +4.92 Plus/Minus on 66 percent Consistency on FanDuel. The last time Duffy and Quintana dueled, both recorded 10 strikeouts. Quintana has lasted until the seventh inning in all three starts against the Royals this season, and in Duffy’s most recent start against the White Sox he pitched a complete game. They both cost nearly the same on both sites, but Duffy garners the edge in K Prediction (8.7 to 6.3) and Quintana’s recent advanced stats overshadow Duffy’s.
The Dodgers are currently implied to score 5.3 runs, the weather at first pitch in Arizona will exceed 100 degrees, and opposing left-handed pitcher Robbie Ray claims a slate-worst 66 percent fly-ball rate while allowing opponents to hit the ball 47 feet further in his last two starts. However, Ray faces a team that has struggled against left-handed pitchers this season to the tune of a league-worst 0.274 wOBA and fourth-worst 0.119 ISO. In fact, two starts ago, Ray notched 12 strikeouts in six innings against the Dodgers. Since the beginning of June, the Dodgers have supplied a -1.38 Plus/Minus on 26.3 percent Consistency on DraftKings and -1.43 Plus/Minus on 29.1 percent Consistency on FanDuel against left-handed pitchers. I advise tournament doses of Ray, who comes in third with a 7.5 K Prediction and leads all pitchers in the majors with a 12.43 K/9 since the All-Star break.
Ivan Nova has faced one team twice since joining the Pirates: the Cincinnati Reds. Not only is he coming off an 11-strikeout performance against the Phillies, but in his most recent start against Reds, Nova allowed one run in nine innings. He leads all pitchers with 26.1 DraftKings points per game over the past month and a 60 percent ground-ball rate in his last three starts. He’s walked only three batters in 52.1 innings with the Pirates, and he owns the best advanced stats among pitchers in today’s slate. In my estimation, Nova is the safest pitcher on the slate.
The cheap strikeout option is Alex Reyes. His 7.1 K Prediction and 100 Park Factor stand out at $5,100 on FanDuel and $6,900 on DraftKings. Opposing Reyes will be Albert Suarez, who became intriguing once the Cardinals’ implied total dropped 0.4 runs after opening. Additionally, with the percentage of moneyline bets favoring the Cardinals and Suarez limiting opponents to a slate-best 11 percent hard-hit rate in his past two starts, investing in Suarez shares at $5,800 on DraftKings should allow expensive Coors Field exposure.
Trevor Bauer’s recent improvement on his yearly batted-ball distance and hard-hit rate hasn’t resulted in fantasy success. He’s a top-five pitcher with regards to opponent hard-hit rate (21 percent) and ground-ball rate (50 percent) in his last three starts but has allowed 14 earned runs in those outings. His primary problem rests with his inability to generate swings and misses. In those three starts, 92.5 percent of the pitches in the strike zone were contacted and batters swung at only 27.2 percent of his pitches outside the strike zone. His 41.4 percent swing rate over the past two weeks ranks 68th out of 71 qualified starters.
Limitations
Joe Ross will make his first start since July 2nd, and manager Dusty Baker expects no more than three innings from the right-handed pitcher. Ross hasn’t thrown more than 60 pitches in his three rehab starts.
Stacks
The best five-man ISO stack on DraftKings excludes Hyun-Soo Kim and Pedro Alvarez, both of whom lead the Orioles with 11 and 10 Pro Trends, respectively. Every hitter in the Orioles’ projected lineup boasts at least five Pro Trends. Mark Trumbo has missed the past two games but is expected to return today.
Jake Odorizzi has one Dud in his last 11 starts. It was a September 6th outing against the Orioles in which he allowed two home runs and seven runs in four innings. Two months earlier, Odorizzi allowed three home runs and five runs in five innings against the Orioles. In five starts against the Orioles this season, Odorizzi has supplied a -9.86 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a -13.63 Plus/Minus on FanDuel while exceeding salary-based expectations once.
The third-highest rated stack on FanDuel in the CSURAM88 Model (and the cheapest of the top-11 stacks) belongs to a Rangers 1-2-3-4 stack. Each hitter carries a Bargain Rating higher than 89 percent, their Team Value Rating is 92, and Adrian Beltre leads all hitters with a 0.454 wOBA against left-handed pitchers. It doesn’t hurt that the Rangers are currently implied to score 6.2 runs and temperature at first pitch should hover around 95 degrees.
Hitters
Buster Posey and David Ortiz may be victims of rest today. The same could be said of any member of the Cubs’ core lineup. In Posey’s case, Trevor Brown will likely suit up, but he’ll slot towards the end of the Giants’ batting order. Also, Hanley Ramirez may shift to DH and move up to the fourth spot in the batting order. His 99 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel and 59 percent Consistency over the past month, combined with the Red Sox’s 5.6 implied run total, warrants cash-game exposure.
Asdrubal Cabrera leads all shortstops with 10 Pro Trends and 10.6 DraftKings points over the past month. Opposing right-handed pitcher Kyle Gibson has averaged 8.3 DraftKings points in the past month while allowing at least one home run in 11 of his past 14 starts. The Mets are currently implied to score a hearty 4.7 runs, and despite his salary increase of $1,700 over the past month, Cabrera is only the 12th-most expensive option at $3,900 while being the second-highest rated shortstop in the CSURAM88 Model.
For the second time in three games, Nolan Arenado will cost a yearly low of $3,800 in a Coors Field game. It’s only the fourth time he’s been similarly discounted at home. The Rockies are currently implied to score 7.2 runs, Arenado homered yesterday, and Padres right-handed pitcher Jarred Cosart’s yearly fly-ball rate of 15 percent rose to 54 percent in his recent start — one that culminated in a strained right hamstring and groin.
Ian Kinsler costs a yearly low of $3,000 on FanDuel. Since 2012, he’s cost no more than $3,000 just 12 times, and he’s returned a +4.18 Plus/Minus in those instances. We already discussed Trevor Bauer‘s issues, and the top-six hitters in the Tigers’ projected lineup possess a Bargain Rating of at least 82 percent on FanDuel. Miguel Cabrera ($3,200 on FanDuel) leads the team with a 45 percent hard-hit rate over the past 13 games, and with the Tigers currently implied to score 4.1 runs, a two-man tournament stack should allow you to spend up elsewhere.
