Pitchers
The top-seven highest-rated pitchers in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models oppose teams currently implied to score less than 4.0 runs.
Foursome
Jake Arrieta, Justin Verlander, Corey Kluber, and Chris Sale headline the pitching crop.
Verlander is the lowest-rated pitcher of the four, but his 10.31 SO/9, 0.81 WHIP, 0.214 BABIP, and 53.3 percent swing rate since the All-Star break all rank in the top-five among qualified pitchers. However, his recent advanced stats are troubling: He has a 60 percent fly-ball rate, 20-foot batted-ball distance differential, five MPH increase in exit velocity allowed, and a bump of 14 percent on hard-hit balls in consecutive starts against the White Sox. The White Sox rank 25th in fly-ball rate over the past 30 days; the Orioles (his opponent today) rank first in ISO and second in fly-ball rate. That’s concerning.
Kluber costs $13,400 on DraftKings, his second-most expensive salary in our database. In seven starts priced above $12,300 in our database, Kluber failed to meet expectation every time for a -9.98 Plus/Minus. However, he currently leads the quartet with a 6.9 K Prediction, 72 Park Factor, -210 moneyline, and 46.0 FanDuel PPG over the past month.
In three starts against the Royals this season, Sale failed to meet salary expectations twice on FanDuel and all three times on DraftKings. His $13,100 salary on DraftKings and slate-high $10,700 salary on FanDuel likely relegates him to low ownership based on alternative options. He still managed to record 22 strikeouts in 20 innings against the Royals, so he still has upside in tournaments.
Arrieta’s 62 percent ground-ball rate over the past two weeks and nine Pro Trends on DraftKings lead all pitchers, and his $11,900 DraftKings salary is the cheapest among the Fantastic Four. He’s in great recent form, limiting opponents to an average of 166 feet on batted balls, and the Astros are currently implied to score 3.4 runs. Conversely, the Cubs offer a moneyline (-140) lower than eight other favorites, and Mark Wegner is the listed umpire. He has an umpire Plus/Minus of -0.60 on FanDuel and -1.10 on DraftKings.
On FanDuel, Verlander costs at least $800 less than the rest, who are all within $300 of each other. On DraftKings, Arrieta has averaged 10 less DraftKings points per game over the past month when compared to the other three, but his recent advanced stats and salary drop of $1,000 over the past month will probably bring higher ownership.
Tier Everyone Else
Luke Weaver was pulled after 83 pitches in his last start, and he topped out at 96 pitches in his second outing. He costs $4,800 on DraftKings, and he recorded a career-best 10 strikeouts against the Brewers less than two weeks ago. Weaver carries significant risk with the worst recent advanced stats over the past 15 days among all starters, but the Brewers’ 0.289 SO/AB rate combined with Weaver’s 11.16 SO/9 has culminated in a slate-best 8.8 K Prediction. He’ll be highly owned on DraftKings as many users will pair him with one of the aces listed above.
Kenta Maeda faces a team with the highest ground-ball rate (49.4 percent) over the last 30 days. Umpire Bill Miller will call balls and strikes, a situation that has historically resulted in a +1.30 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +2.20 Plus/Minus on FanDuel for pitchers. Since the Marlins were nearly no-hit last night, I’d have no qualms attacking the same lineup a day later based on Maeda’s solid recent advanced stats and Miller calling the game.
The Nationals are -230 favorites and the Phillies’ 0.276 team wOBA ranks last today. Gio Gonzalez has been inconsistent this season, but the Phillies are currently implied to score a slate-low 3.4 runs, and their year-long 0.280 wOBA against left-handed pitchers aligns with their team wOBA today. He’s not projected to strike out many batters (5.8), but he’s a solid option on FD given his high moneyline.
Consider Chad Bettis the cheap knockoff of Arrieta. They share similarly stellar recent advanced stats and Bettis costs $3,400 less on FanDuel and $2,100 less on DraftKings. His $9,800 DraftKings salary is the highest in our database; he’s a better value on FD today.
Stacks
The DraftKings five-man stack with the most combined Pro Trends is currently a 2-3-4-5-8 stack of the Indians:
Tyler Naquin leads the Indians with a 0.260 ISO and an average batted-ball distance of 227 feet in the past nine games, while Francisco Lindor leads the team with an 18 percent increase in hard-hit rate. Opposing starter Jose Berrios enters today’s game with a 1.985 WHIP and 1.961 HR/9 rate, and every hitter in the Indians’ projected lineup currently supplies at least seven Pro Trends for a team currently implied to score a slate-best 5.5 runs.
The highest-rated four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model doubles as the cheapest among the top-seven rated stacks. Three of the members have increased their hard-hit rate by at least 10 percent over the past 15 days, and Seth Smith trails only Curtis Granderson among projected starting outfielders in batted-ball distance.
Hitters
Yankees pitcher Luis Cessa claims a slate-worst 2.179 HR/9 rate. Logan Morrison leads the Rays with 62 percent Consistency on DraftKings, and Corey Dickerson (0.268), Brad Miller (0.260), and Nick Franklin (0.256) lead the team in ISO against right-handed pitchers over the last year. The Rays are currently implied to score only 4.2 runs, but the four Rays listed offer home run potential at a substantial discount in tournaments.
Joc Pederson leads all projected hitters with a 61 percent hard-hit rate over the past 15 days, which is slightly higher than his 60 percent Consistency on FanDuel over the past month. Although he’s stuck at the back of the batting order with a Park Factor of 1, he crushed two home runs last night at Marlins Park, giving him four home runs in his last seven starts.
Kolten Wong’s recent hot streak hasn’t drastically affected his salary. He leads the Cardinals with 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings, a 57 percent hard-hit rate, and an average of 255 feet on batted balls over the past six games. Where he will ultimately land in the batting order is a mystery based on his recent game log, but as long as he plays, Wong’s cheap enough to consider in all formats.
Dustin Pedroia has recorded a hit in 28 straight games against the Blue Jays. In 14 games this season, he’s posted a +2.91 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +1.85 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Mookie Betts has reached base in 27 straight games. Despite the streak, Betts’ Consistency on DraftKings rests at 37 percent in the past month and he’s recorded only six extra-base hits in his last 23 starts.
Jered Weaver has surrendered 10 home runs and five stolen bases in his last six starts. End-of-the-order base thieves Elvis Andrus (0.180 SB/G) and Carlos Gomez (0.179 SB/G) garner consideration, and if Gomez remains in the leadoff spot for the second straight game he’ll be a popular play.
The Yankees currently lead all teams with an 84 Team Value Rating on FanDuel. They are presently implied to score 4.8 runs, and every hitter in the projected lineup offers a Bargain Rating of at least 76 percent. In his last six starts, Rays pitcher Matt Andriese has allowed 10 home runs and five stolen bases.
