Pitchers
Gerrit Cole and Kyle Hendricks are the top-rated pitchers in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models, but not much separates the top from the middle.
Cole hasn’t struck out more than seven batters in any start this season, and his overall performance has been erratic. His recent form has been sublime, however, limiting opponents to a slate-best 176-foot batted-ball distance over the past 15 days. The Reds are currently implied to score a slate-worst 3.2 runs, and Eugenio Suarez is the only hitter in the projected lineup sporting a positive hard-hit differential. Cole has very solid indicators, but in eight home starts, he has only exceeded salary-based expectations twice this season.
Hendricks has been immaculate at Wrigley Field and mediocre on the road in 2016, meeting salary-based expectations in two of nine starts on FanDuel. He has kept the ball on the ground, limiting opponents to a 20 percent fly-ball rate in his last two starts, a six percent improvement over his last year. Facing the team with the lowest projected wOBA (0.243) works in his favor, but he’s the third-most expensive option on DraftKings and Ramon De Jesus is calling the balls and strikes, a situation for pitchers which has returned a -6.20 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a -7.70 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Hendricks edges out Cole on the Upside scale, but this thumb war may ultimately conclude in a stalemate.
Jacob deGrom doesn’t rate highly, but I push all my chips to the center of the table when he pitches in a day game. In 28 day games, deGrom has historically produced a +6.76 Plus/Minus on DraftKings on 78.6 percent Consistency and a +9.60 Plus/Minus on FanDuel on 75.0 percent Consistency. Switching venues to the road nearly doubles his Plus/Minus on both sites. I’m certainly biased having witnessed many of these day-game performances, but if you’re focused on a high floor, deGrom has shown the requisite consistency to spend the $10,000-plus on either site.
Madison Bumgarner will oppose a Nationals’ projected lineup with a slate-high 0.333 wOBA. An expensive Bumgarner — he’s $12,900 on DraftKings today — is usually a consistent Bumgarner . . . except when the Giants’ moneyline sits below -130. He failed to meet expectations in both instances of high salary and minuscule moneyline earlier this season. And he hasn’t been any better on the road of late, falling short of expectations in four straight road outings. When Vegas teeters on Bumgarner, I listen.
Jon Gray pitching at Coors Field is the new black (JGPACFITNB). In his last seven home starts, Gray has met salary-based expectations six times while supplying a +16.0 Plus/Minus on FanDuel and a +9.32 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. He leads all pitchers with 44 FanDuel points per game over the last month. Three of his last five starts have come against the Braves and Phillies, two of the worst offenses in baseball. In his last two starts, opponents hit the ball an average of 230 feet with a 54 percent fly-ball rate. Both rate as bottom-three marks on this slate of solid-but-not-great options. Gray potentially catches a break with Christian Yelich likely sitting in favor of Ichiro Suzuki, but his recent success feels like a trap.
Yu Darvish is the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings ($13,100) and boasts a 10.5 K Prediction. If Marcus Stroman and his 7.204 SO/9 rate can notch a career-high 13 strikeouts against the Astros, then Darvish’s slate-best 12.995 SO/9 might as well challenge for the all-time record. Will Little will be behind the plate, and his presence has historically netted pitchers a +1.10 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +1.30 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Darvish has maxed out at 94 pitches this season after returning from Tommy John surgery. Manager Jeff Banister said “105-110 pitches” is a reasonable expectation for today’s outing, raising Darvish’s ceiling.
Adam Wainwright will pitch for the team with the best moneyline (-210). He’s not expected to strike out many batters, and his 28 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel is prohibitive, but as I’ll continue to harp, the Braves are the worst offense in baseball — as long as you overlook yesterday’s 13-run outburst. The Cardinals have won 15 of Wainwright’s 22 starts this season, and the Braves are currently implied to score 3.3 runs. Wainwright’s recent form leaves much to be desired, but the matchup is too good to pass up, especially on DraftKings where Wainwright currently leads all pitchers with nine Pro Trends.
David Price and Brandon McCarthy square off in the night game. They rank second and fourth in K Prediction at 9.0 and 8.0, respectively. Now the bad news: Price hasn’t struck out more than six batters in his last four starts, and McCarthy hasn’t pitched beyond the fourth inning in his last two outings. Price’s recent differentials best McCarthy’s, but McCarthy is nearly $3,000 cheaper on both platforms. On top of that, David Ortiz will likely get the day off in a National League ballpark, and Hanley Ramirez will replace him in the field and lineup. Dustin Pedroia (shin) is closer to probable, but the Red Sox are currently implied to score 3.6 runs, their fourth-lowest mark of the season. The price discrepancy and Price’s recent slippage tilt the scales in McCarthy’s favor, especially if Ortiz doesn’t play.
Dylan Bundy carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning in each of his last two starts. His price climbed from near minimum on DraftKings to $7,800, but he performed well enough last time out against a loaded Rangers unit to warrant excessive tournament exposure today.
Stacks
The top-three five-man stacks on DraftKings using the Isolated Power (ISO) option hail from the Cardinals. That’s wonderful news considering opposing pitcher Michael Foltynewicz has the second-worst HR/9 (1.625) rate on the slate. Tommy Pham and Brandon Moss currently lead all hitters on DraftKings with 12 Pro Trends.
Matt Carpenter was pulled early from Saturday’s game as a precaution, and it’s possible manager Mike Matheny rests him today after only playing two games since returning from the DL. Carpenter’s absence would likely shoehorn Greg Garcia to the leadoff spot for a team currently implied to score 4.9 runs.
As expected, the top four-man stack on FanDuel utilizing the CSURAM88 Model is a 1-4 Rockies assemblage. However, the Orioles claim four of the top-seven four-man stacks. They are currently one of three teams implied to score at least 5.0 runs, the other two playing at Coors Field. Pedro Alvarez will likely be highly owned after hitting six home runs in his last five starts. Opposing pitcher James Shields’ 1.548 HR/9, the third-worst mark on the slate, should amplify ownership today.
Hitters
Plenty of hitters may end up resting on Sunday in what is becoming a growing epidemic. Last Sunday, Nolan Arenado, Matt Holliday, Ian Desmond, Daniel Murphy, Salvador Perez, and Adrian Gonzalez were but a fraction of the everyday players to sit. The previous Sunday — less than two weeks removed from the All-Star break — David Ortiz, Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, Zack Cozart, and Andrew McCutchen took their place on the bench. Plan for the worst, and prepare to swoop in when a cheap bat enters the fray.
A smattering of players left Saturday’s games due to injury-related circumstances, including Carlos Beltran (quad), David Freese (elbow), and Yadier Molina (hand). Their availability today is unclear. Again, this would create opportunities for cheap hitters to reap the benefits of a team with a high implied total.
It’s Mike Trout’s birthday. Normally, the birthday narrative can be disregarded. In Trout’s case, his +7.18 Plus/Minus on FanDuel over his last four birthdays requires further inspection. He celebrated early on Saturday with a three-run home run and a triple. Additionally, his salary of $4,300 on DraftKings registers as the second-lowest of the season. The Angels are currently implied to score 4.0 runs, and they’ll face left-handed pitcher James Paxton, which partially explains the depreciation. Trout has struggled against southpaws this season, and Paxton has limited opponents to a 0.788 HR/9 rate over the last 12 months. Based on past birthday success and a reduced price, Trout fits the narrative street profile.
Abraham Almonte has been one of the most consistent players this month, exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of his 10 starts. His recent advanced stats are neutral, but his salary doesn’t match his recent production. At $2,500 on FanDuel and $3,000 on DraftKings, Almonte has a lower bar to climb to provide value. He’s reached base in six straight.
Speed Force
Gerrit Cole has surrendered the ninth-most stolen bases (12) in the National League this season. Billy Hamilton has swiped 39 out of 44 bases this season, including one in four of his last five games. He only costs $2,800 on FanDuel, and because the Reds are currently implied to score a slate-low 3.2 runs, his ownership should be low. At that price, combined with a 57 percent Consistency over the past month, he’s in contention for cash games as well as tournaments.
Jimmy Nelson has yielded 16 stolen bases this year, the seventh-most in MLB. Jean Segura, who’s reached base in 15 of 18 games since the All-Star break, leads the Diamondbacks with 0.176 SB/G over the past year. His 97 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel is only surpassed by Jake Lamb (99 percent), and Yasmany Tomas (98 percent). The Diamondbacks are currently implied to score 4.8 runs, and they roughed up Nelson for eight runs (two earned) in 4.2 innings less than two weeks ago. Embrace the stack.
Matt Andriese has allowed eight stolen bases in eight starts this year. Jorge Polanco and Byron Buxton have each averaged roughly 0.100 SB/G over the past year, and they both cost $3,000 on DraftKings. Andriese is only expected to throw 80 pitches as he transitions from a reliever role.
