This may be the worst collection of pitchers I have seen on a slate in my entire life.
Pitchers
Only five teams are currently implied to score fewer than four runs.
Lefty Chalk
The Dodgers rank 28th in the league with a 0.287 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and 0.129 Isolated Power (ISO) against left-handed pitchers this season. Over the past week, they were limited to one hit by left-handed pitchers Matt Moore in 8.2 innings and Brandon Finnegan in seven innings. They also scored five runs in five innings off Madison Bumgarner on a cacophony of singles. The same fate befell Mike Montgomery last Friday, as the Dodgers required three groundouts preceded by walks to score three runs off him in five innings. Jon Lester is not Inigo Montoya because he’s left-handed. [Editor’s Note: Get used to disappointment.] The last time he faced the Dodgers, he threw a complete game and registered a season-high 10 strikeouts.
Bumgarner is the Vegas darling today. The Giants are -277 moneyline favorites, and the Braves are currently implied to score a slate-worst 2.7 runs. Bumgarner hasn’t pitched more than five innings in either of last two starts, but he managed to accumulate 13 strikeouts. Bumgarner has yielded nine runs in his last 10 innings, but recent advanced stats suggest that bad luck is to blame. Opponents are hitting the ball 14 feet shorter compared to Bumgarner’s yearly average, and his .364 BABIP over the fortnight is 100 percentage points higher than that of his first 24 starts this season.
They both possess solid and similar recent advanced stats, but Lester has allowed opponents to increased their hard-hit rate by 10 percentage points in his last two starts, and that has morphed into a 36 percent line-drive rate. The two pitchers are separated by $200 on FanDuel. The negligible difference elevates Bumgarner over Lester in cash formats. Lester costs $1,300 less on DraftKings, but both pitchers are the only ones to cost more than $10,000.
They are the safest options on a slate riddled with ne’er-do-wells and also-rans. They have similar K Predictions and stats across the board. Flip a coin.
Lottery Ticket
Chris Archer faces the Astros, a team he lost to in June. He did record eight strikeouts in 7.2 innings in that outing, and he has hovered around or exceeded salary-based expectations in his last eight starts, authoring a +9.28 Plus/Minus on FanDuel and a +6.87 Plus/Minus on DraftKings in that time. He has induced a ground ball on 62 percent of all batted balls over his last two starts, and the Astros’ projected lineup sports a 0.285 wOBA, the third-lowest on the slate. Archer is the third-most expensive pitcher on both sites, and his recent floor of six strikeouts may actually translate well in all formats given the dearth of pitching options in the slate.
Fade the Obvious: Risk Gravitation
Homer Bailey leads all pitchers with an 8.4 K Prediction. His opposition is implied to score 4.9 runs, and Bailey failed to record any strikeouts in his last start. Recency bias will likely diminish his ownership levels, but so too will the Diamondbacks offense in Arizona. Bailey may avoid Jean Segura, who exited Saturday’s affair with an illness.
In three starts against the Orioles this season, CC Sabathia accumulated 13 strikeouts in 18.1 innings. He also limited them to only three extra base hits while crafting a 1.93 ERA. The Orioles are 27th in wOBA against left-handed pitchers this season (0.294), and their 0.299 SO/AB is the fourth-best mark for pitchers. To top it off, the projected nine hitter, Julio Borbon, is the only member of the lineup with a positive wOBA Differential against left-handed pitchers.
Kevin Gausman is the only pitcher on the slate to meet salary-based expectations in five consecutive starts on DraftKings. Facing the Yankees offense has been a tall order recently, given their 27 cumulative runs in the past two games, but Gausman has met salary-based expectations in all three previous starts against the Yankees, with a +4.49 Plus/Minus on FanDuel and a +5.08 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Rostering Gausman is a low-upside tournament gambit that requires him to slow down a team currently implied to score 4.9 runs — and one that is not the same team he faced earlier this season.
Luis Perdomo, he who threw seven shutout innings against the Diamondbacks last time out, faces a team currently implied to score 4.7 runs. Marcell Ozuna is the only member of the Marlins’ projected lineup with a positive Hard-Hit Differential the past 15 days. Over the past 30 days, the Marlins lead MLB with a 49.5 percent ground-ball rate. In that same time frame, Perdomo’s 62.0 percent ground-ball rate is bested only by the rates of teammates Jarred Cosart and Clayton Richard and Blue Jay Marcus Stroman. Reverse line movement is currently in full effect, and it favors the Padres.
Yordano Ventura has a 77 percent Consistency in his last nine starts on DraftKings. The Red Sox are currently implied to score 5.0 runs. Ventura leads all pitchers over the past 15 days with a 69 percent ground-ball rate, and he benefits from having umpire Chad Whitson behind the plate, a presence historically gifting to pitchers a +2.4 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +3.2 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. I’d wait to see if any of the Red Sox regulars sit before deploying Ventura in tournaments.
Ivan Nova threw a complete game his last time out. He faces a projected lineup with a 0.308 SO/AB, and his 69 percent ground-ball rate over the past 15 days is tied with Ventura’s for top marks. Nova joined the Pirates at the trade deadline, and he has been decent since then. He has also failed to give up a home run in three consecutive starts, a sign of true progress.
R.A. Dickey had his most consistent month in August, meeting salary-based expectations in three out of four starts. The Blue Jays are currently -199 favorites, and the potential for a win elevates his stock on FanDuel. Even though Dickey is slated for 3.9 K Prediction, he has provided a +3.58 Plus/Minus on 64.3 percent Consistency this season when nestled within 0.4 on either side, per our Trends tool.
Stacks
The Blue Jays dominate the Team Stacks tool.
The 1-2-3-4 grouping leads all FanDuel stacks in the CSURAM88 Model. The Blue Jays lead all teams with 5.5 implied runs, and all four members rate in the top nine within the model. This stack requires Travis to return to the top of the order one game after hitting eighth.
Of the top 10 DraftKings stacks, the Indians offer the cheapest unit. They also are the ninth-rated stack, so you get what you pay for. It’s not a terrible concession, as the Indians are currently implied to score 4.9 runs and all five members offer at least five Pro Trends. Mike Napoli was chosen at first base over Carlos Santana, and he leads all Indians hitters with a 217-foot batted-ball distance and 50 percent fly-ball rate over the past 15 days.
Hitters
There are 18 hitters worth at least $5,000 on DraftKings. Charlie Blackmon leads them all with a 69 percent Consistency over the past month. In that time, he has averaged a +9.60 Plus/Minus in 12 road games. The Rockies face rookie right-handed pitcher Lucas Giolito, whose 2.039 WHIP in three career starts for the Nationals is second-worst in the slate behind Brock Stewart‘s mark.
Gary Sanchez leads all DraftKings hitters with 15 Pro Trends. His 14.8 DraftKings points per game during his time in the starting lineup ranks second behind Blackmon. Opposing pitcher Gausman enters the game with a 1.596 HR/9 rate. There may not be another hitter more highly owned this afternoon. The pivot play off of Sanchez is Russell Martin, whose numbers over the last 15 days have been comparable to Sanchez’s. It sounds weird to say that Martin is the second choice, especially with the Blue Jays implied to score 4.6 runs, but Sanchez has won the headlines with 11 home runs in his last 15 games.
Ian Kinsler, Devon Travis, and Adam Eaton are projected leadoff hitters for teams currently implied to score between 5.0 and 5.5 runs. All three cost between $3,900 and $4,100 on DraftKings. Hitters with similar profiles have concocted a +1.36 Plus/Minus on 49.6 percent Consistency this season. Kinsler is the top-rated hitter in the CSURAM88 Model, thanks in large part to his success against left-handed pitchers and his recent advanced stats, headlined by a 64 percent fly-ball rate over the past 15 days.
Cesar Hernandez (72 percent), DJ LeMahieu (70 percent), Brian Dozier (70 percent), and Trea Turner (69 percent) lead all DraftKings hitters in Consistency over the past month. They are all also designated as second basemen. (Turner additionally has dual-positional eligibility as an outfielder.) All four have experienced an increase in their average exit velocities and hard-hit rates the past 15 days. And when you add Travis and Kinsler to this group, the second basemen buffet is stocked.
Good luck!
