If I didn’t have a standard intro telling you that today there are 15 games in the all-day slate, would you miss it?
Pitchers
Only five teams are currently implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs, and two of those teams are facing each other.
Danny Duffy ties his highest salary on DraftKings in our database at $12,900, the same amount he cost after his 16-strikeout performance. In the subsequent three outings, Duffy totaled 17 total strikeouts. He has gone at least 6.0 innings in 10 straight starts, and his 9.0 K Prediction leads all pitchers. Although only two Twins in the projected opposing lineup sport negative Weighted On-Base (wOBA) Differentials against left-handed pitchers, their strikeout rate against southpaws is bottom-four in the league. Duffy is considerably cheaper on FanDuel at $10,000, a salary that will lend itself to all contests. He’s not an outright fade on DraftKings, but pitchers comparable in price and K Prediction typically fail to outperform their salary-based expectations in an outsized manner. The 59.3 percent Consistency is nice for cash games, but you really want more Upside potential from a pitcher who costs almost $13,000.
The last time Corey Kluber faced the Blue Jays, he registered -3.1 DraftKings points and 7.00 FanDuel points. That was at the beginning of July, and since then he has averaged a +10.26 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. His DraftKings performance over that time may not seem as spectacular, but that’s because one of his starts — an eight-strikeout win over the Yankees — was excluded from all slates. Kluber is $1,100 cheaper than Duffy on DraftKings, and that difference will likely make him the most targeted pitcher on the slate. Kluber has reached at least seven strikeouts in six of his last seven outings, and his recent advanced stats are superior to Duffy’s.
Noah Syndergaard hasn’t pitched more than 6.0 innings in his last seven starts. Two starts prior, an MRI revealed a bone spur in his pitching elbow. Since the All-Star break, his 0.398 BABIP is the second-worst mark among starting pitchers, but his 2.91 xFIP ranks sixth and he’s second only to teammate Steven Matz with a 25.7 percent soft-contact rate. All of this suggests that Syndergaard has been unlucky. His recent advanced stats are trending in the right direction, but that data includes only consecutive starts against the Diamondbacks. The concern tonight is that, facing a projected Giants lineup with a 0.199 SO/AB, Syndergaard has a K Prediction of 7.4 — the fourth-lowest mark for him in our database. Duffy, $400 cheaper on FanDuel, carries less risk. It appears that Syndergaard has transitioned from chalk in all formats to a tournament dart.
In his last 16 starts, Justin Verlander cost less than $10,000 on DraftKings only twice. Both times he slipped to $9,400, his salary today. The most recent of those games was against today’s opponent, the Red Sox. Their projected lineup claims the worst SO/AB (0.314) on the slate, and despite Verlander’s low 5.9 K Prediction he has provided at least six strikeouts in seven of his last nine starts. His price alone makes him a consideration, and his 26.0 DraftKings points per game over the last five starts put him second only to Duffy (27.9).
Jose Quintana may have the best recent advanced stats of all the pitchers on the slate, but piling up strikeouts has been an issue. He has failed to record more than five strikeouts in six of his last nine starts. At least over that time frame he has pitched no fewer than six innings every time. What was thought to be the strength of the Athletics — an 18.3 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers — hasn’t been a strength lately. Four of the last five left-handed pitchers they’ve faced have accumulated at least six strikeouts and four victories. Quintana will face a less potent offense than Verlander while offering a savings of $600.
Gio Gonzalez comes highly rated despite having an inconsistent season. He has been nearly unplayable away from Nationals Park, and seven of his lowest strikeout performances have come on the road, resulting in a 7.0 SO/9 as the visiting pitcher, down from 10.0 SO/9 in Washington, D.C. He’s on the road today. Since the trade deadline, the Braves roughed up Carlos Martinez and Adam Wainwright in consecutive games to the tune of 12 earned runs. They did the same to Stephen Strasburg, and yesterday they tagged Max Scherzer for four runs in 6.1 innings. It’s as if the addition of Matt Kemp rejuvenated their offense. Gonzalez has a slate-best -175 moneyline, but he hasn’t exhibited the necessary ceiling or floor to make him anything more than a possible low-exposure contrarian play.
Chad Green offers a 7.1 K Prediction at $6,400 on DraftKings and $6,300 on FanDuel. In three of his last four starts, Green accumulated 28 strikeouts. The rookie threw a career-high 104 pitches in his last start, in which he was actually throwing to his minor league catcher, Gary Sanchez. The Angels’ 0.206 SO/AB is the second-worst mark on the slate for pitchers, but given his upside Green is at least worth tournament consideration. Against a comparable Padres lineup (0.235 SO/AB) in July, Green provided eight strikeouts in six innings of work.
Stacks
The top rated Isolated Power (ISO) and Pro Trends five-man DraftKings stacks are the same: The Yankees 3-4-5-7-8 grouping. (This works only by excluding Josh Bell from the models on account of his unrepresentative, model-annihilating five plate appearances.)
A recent trip to the bullpen couldn’t salvage Jhoulys Chacin’s WHIP (1.54), and over his last five starts he’s averaging -6.12 DraftKings points. I’ll let that sink in for a moment.
The Chicago Cubs represent the 15 highest-rated four-man stacks on FanDuel using the CSURAM88 Model. A 1-2-3-4 Cubs stack represents the top option for the team currently implied to score 6.5 runs. It is also, very clearly, the most expensive four-man stack on the menu. The two highest batter salaries in the slate belong to players in this stack.
A hitter who is at least $5,300 on FanDuel is a rare bird. Only 39 times this season has a batter reached that threshold, with Bryce Harper and Josh Donaldson combining for 30 of those. That’s the situation Kris Bryant finds himself in today. He leads all hitters with 14.6 FanDuel points per game over the last month. Over the past 15 days, he has racked up a 44 percent hard-hit rate, the third highest on the slate.
Hitters
Yoenis Cespedes hit two home runs in AT&T Park yesterday off pitchers of both handedness, and today he costs $3,300 on DraftKings. It’s only the second time since the start of 2015 that his price has cratered. The only other time was two days ago, when he returned from the Disabled List. Like yesterday, today is expected to see winds blowing out to center field, but this time the velocity has increased to 12 miles per hours. He’s a $3,300 cleanup hitter with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
To quote an article of mine from earlier this season:
Nolan Arenado participated in three bobblehead games since 2014 and exceeded value all three times, registering a +7.66 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +8.65 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
For the second time this season, the Rockies will give away an Arenado bobblehead. Instead of the typical uniform and bat, this one is the Gold Glove Miner edition. Since the beginning of 2014, players on their bobblehead day have exceeded salary based expectations half the time on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Arenado has been scuffling lately, compiling a 38 percent Consistency Rating on both FanDuel and DraftKings this past month, but his recent advanced stats are congruent with his year-long measurables. Arenado makes for a great walk along narrative street at $4,000 on FanDuel.
Noah Syndergaard has allowed a league-high 40 stolen bases this season, including 11 in his last four starts. The last time he faced the Giants, he yielded three stolen bases and four earned runs in under six innings. Angel Pagan (groin) is currently doubtful after exiting Saturday’s game, shifting focus to Eduardo Nunez (0.268 SB/G) and Denard Span (0.106 SB/G). Because Syndergaard is on the mound, they cost $3,100 and $3,000 respectively on FanDuel. Despite Brandon Crawford’s reluctance to swipe bases, he accounted for one of the stolen bases earlier this season against Syndergaard, and he’s only $3,100 on FanDuel.
Javier Baez exhibits a 99 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel for a team currently implied to score 6.5 runs. It’s an exclusive club, and those with similar marks have compiled a +4.42 Plus/Minus on 58.7 percent Consistency. On the other side of the aisle is Gerardo Parra, a 98 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings. He’s projected to hit fifth for a team currently implied to score 5.1 runs. Historically, we should expect similar bargains in the top half of the order to provide value 60.7 percent of the time and a +3.17 Plus/Minus.
Good luck!
