Sunday baseball is a beautiful thing. Let’s talk about today’s 15-game slate.
Pitchers
Despite pitching options that are much better today than they were yesterday, there’s one guy who stands out above the rest: Max Scherzer. He currently holds the top spot in a variety of stats, including strikeouts per nine innings (11.683), Vegas implied opponent runs (3.1), Pro Trends on both sites, moneyline (-245), and K Prediction (9.9). The last one is incredibly important, as it is one of the most predictive metrics we have:
Scherzer has an elite 1.025 WHIP, but in the slate he actually trails Oakland pitcher Rich Hill, who has an unbelievably low mark of 0.985. And it’s not as if he doesn’t have strikeout potential either: His 8.0 K Prediction is third in this slate, behind only Scherzer and Dan Straily‘s marks. Hill has been in very impressive form recently, scoring 57 FanDuel points in six innings pitched in his last outing versus the Astros. He does, however, carry some risk: He was scratched for his last start with a blister, is in daily trade rumors right now, has an opponent implied run total of 4.0 currently, and is only a -107 favorite.
Kenta Maeda is an intriguing pitcher today. The Dodgers righty has a couple worrisome blemishes: His advanced stats show that in his last two starts he has allowed a 37 percent hard-hit rate and a batted-ball distance of 257 feet. According to our Trends tool, pitchers with those recent marks have historically been pretty awful. On the good side, though, he does boast a current 7.8 K Prediction and -165 moneyline. Additionally, even if his recent advanced stats are troublesome, he had an excellent performance in his last outing, striking out 13 Padres in seven innings en route to a 69-point FD outing.
Jacob deGrom, stats-wise, is pretty much the same pitcher as Maeda going into today. He also currently has a 7.8 K Prediction, is a similar favorite (-169), and has slightly worrisome advanced stats (his batted-ball distance allowed is 235 feet, which isn’t as bad as Maeda’s but still isn’t ideal). He has exhibited great Consistency recently, hitting salary-based expectations in seven out of his last eight starts, but he is also much more expensive than Maeda at FanDuel: Although they’re at similar price points at DK ($10,600 versus Maeda’s $10,300), they’re far apart at FD ($10,400 versus $8,800).
The last pitcher we’ll discuss for today is Giants righty Johnny Cueto, who is always an interesting DFS pitcher: For an expensive ace ($11,300 at FD), he really doesn’t have strikeout upside, which is something we usually must have in a pitcher if we’re paying up. However, he does bring a lot of safety: He has scored fewer than 33 FD points just once since the beginning of May and he’s facing a projected San Diego lineup that has a very low .266 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA). They’re implied to score only 3.1 runs currently and he’s a big -211 favorite. Guys with moneylines that big have historically been incredibly valuable, even with low Predicted K rates.
Stacks
Using our Stacking tool, we can see that the top FanDuel stack in the Bales Model for today is a 1-2-3-5 stack of the projected Indians lineup:
Batting at the top of the order for a team currently projected to score 4.9 runs, both Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana are in great form lately with recent hard-hit rates of at least 44 percent. But they are expensive: Those four guys together will take up a collective $14,100 of FD salary. Even still, the Indians seem to be the team you want to stack today, especially in cash: Five of the top six FD stacks in today’s Bales Model are Indians combinations.
Unsurprisingly, an Indians stack also tops the Bales Model on DraftKings, so let’s move to the second highest-rated DK stack: A projected 1-3-4-6-7 Washington Nationals stack, which is actually close in rating and cheaper than the top-overall Indians stack:
The Nationals face Pirates pitcher Chad Kuhl, who has an awful 1.756 WHIP, easily the worst in the slate. In just two innings last game, he gave up seven hits and four earned runs to the Cubs. Washington has lefties who can crush right-handed pitchers and Kuhl is ready to be crushed.
Other Hitters
Target as many Indians and Nationals hitters as possible. Their matchups and projected totals are too good to pass up, especially in cash games. There are, though, some other high-upside stand-alone hitters with whom you can supplement your stacks in tournament lineups.
Asdrubal Cabrera is basically a no-splits guy, even if his Isolated Power (ISO) is slightly skewed toward righties. He gets Zach Eflin today, who has an absurdly low SO/9 rate of 4.709. No-splits guys, especially in great matchups, are always good to target: Even if they knock out a righty pitcher early, they still have the ability to do well against any pitcher who comes in after, even if he’s a lefty.
It’s tough to pay a high premium for catchers, and Jonathan Lucroy is $4,800 at DraftKings, but he’s much more affordable ($3,300) at FanDuel. Lucroy has elite recent advanced stats: His 52 percent hard-hit rate is a mark that has historically led to value for batters. Best of all, opposing pitcher Dan Straily has allowed the sixth-highest hard-hit rate among pitchers today. That combination could lead to a lot of upside.
Speaking of allowing high hard-hit rates: Michael Fulmer’s mark of 56 percent in his last start is easily the worst in the slate. Vegas doesn’t seem to be too concerned, however, as he currently has an opponent implied run total of 3.9 runs. If you believe that his bad advanced stats are more important than the Vegas data, perhaps target Kendrys Morales, who has struggled a bit lately but has a .219 ISO versus right-handed pitchers in the last year.
On the other side of that matchup sits Miguel Cabrera, who is sporting .391 wOBA, .210 ISO, and .528 slugging percentage splits against fellow righties. He has really struggled lately, hitting double-digit FD points only twice so far in July. However, his recent batted-ball distance — 224 feet in his past eight games — is a mark that has historically led to success and suggests that perhaps he can string together some better games soon.
In case you’re wondering, Adam Duvall (.314 ISO) and Jay Bruce (.279 ISO) are still elite versus right-handed pitchers. Duvall also has ridiculous advanced stats lately: His recent hard-hit rate of 62 percent — a 24-point increase on his year-long average — is just silly. The Reds bats are affordable today and they’re currently implied to score 4.7 runs, making them a viable stack if one wants to pivot away from the Indians and Nationals.
Be sure to consult our Lineups page for our most up-to-date information.
Good luck!
