If you feel like avoiding the stress that comes with fading hitters at Coors Field and paying for Madison Bumgarner at this time, you can skip the All Day slate (as well as the next two sections) and head straight for the Main. Otherwise, here’s an approach for each.
Madison Bumgarner, SF
Fitting Bumgarner and some variation of a Rockies stack in your lineup today is worthy of applause. Most, however, will play the All Day slate leaning in one direction or another. Bumgarner leads his position in DraftKings Pro Trends and has received the highest percentage of moneyline bets so far today, yet there are other pitchers with similar ceilings (we’ll get there) who have performed much better recently.
Bumgarner has failed to meet salary-based expectations in two of his last three starts, averaging a -4.09 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in that span. The Diamondbacks, who are averaging .276 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB), clearly whiff to the point that it’s easy to see Bumgarner’s potential Upside in this matchup. However, note that their .320 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against left-handing pitching is top-seven among offenses.
Bumgarner is a fine cash option at FanDuel since he has a 93 percent Bargain Rating there, but it’s hard to justify spending $13,000 at DraftKings with numerous pitchers in better matchups this afternoon.
Plus/Minus, Pro Trends, Upside, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Rubber Match
Five of the last six games between the Phillies and Rockies have failed to go over their implied Vegas total. Having said that, today seems to be the perfect batting storm for the Rockies.
Not only has their implied total increased to a mark that places them nearly one run ahead of the next team, it’s also expected to be 97 degrees at first pitch. Oh, and Zach Eflin has allowed 1.58 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) over the last year. That clearly calls for all the exposure you can afford in cash games. In tournaments, it’ll still take an extremely unique lineup combination or fading them altogether.
If You Skipped the Last Two Sections
Whether you’re attempting to find Bumgarner comps or terrific spots for pitchers in the Main slate, look no further than this next list of names.
David Price, BOS
It should be noted that Price has allowed a hard-hit rate 10 percentage points higher than his yearly average recently. Even so, he’s averaged the most strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9) among pitchers today, and now fortuitously faces an offense averaging the most SO/AB. If it’s another outing in which he allows three-plus runs but records double-digit strikeouts, that’s more than acceptable. After all, that’s how his last two performances have finished, and he’s still averaged 23.42 DraftKings points in those.
Carlos Carrasco, CLE
Carrasco is not only a comp to Bumgarner, he might actually be a better version of him at this time. Just note that Carrasco has averaged more DraftKings points than any pitcher starting today in the last month, and more recently has allowed a batted-ball distance 17 feet lower than his yearly average. It only helps if the Yankees hit Brett Gardner at leadoff instead of Jacoby Ellsbury for the third consecutive game: Gardner is averaging .224 SO/AB, whereas Ellsbury is averaging only .174.
Junior Guerra, MIL
As good as Carrasco has been in the past 15 days, Guerra has arguably been even better. His 175-foot batted-ball distance allowed in that time is top-two today, and he’s also given up an exit velocity three miles per hour lower than his yearly average. The Cardinals, his opponent this afternoon, currently have a projected .312 wOBA, but that would decrease if Matt Holliday (probable) is ruled out. Greg Garcia, expected to continue leading off in place of Matt Carpenter, has a -.043 wOBA differential against right-handed pitchers.
A.J. Griffin, TEX
Griffin is quietly averaging 8.74 SO/9 in the last year. It’s an issue that his opponent, the Twins, have the second-highest projected wOBA among offenses today. But prior to his most recent start against the Red Sox, Griffin had exceeded salary-based expectations in five of six starts, hitting at least 21.9 DraftKings points in those contests. He’ll also be one of the lowest owned at his position tonight despite having a 55 percent Consistency at DraftKings this year.
Off the Beaten Path
These pitchers may seem like strong options, but their recent play suggests perhaps stacking against them today instead.
John Lackey, CHC
Lackey has failed to meet salary-based expectations in each of his past five starts, averaging a -9.24 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in that span. Even if Josh Harrison, who typically leads off versus right-handed pitching, and Matt Joyce (questionable as well) are out, that still leaves Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, David Freese, and Jung-ho Kang, all who are slugging at least .418 against said handedness.
Tom Koehler, MIA
Koehler only has a 99 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings because he’s averaged a -11.95 Plus/Minus there in his last three starts. Those results are clearly due to his 233-foot batted-ball distance allowed in the past 15 days, tied for the highest among pitchers today. Don’t let the Reds’ high .241 SO/AB fool you; both Jay Bruce and Adam Duvall have a top-eight Isolated Power (ISO) differential versus right-handed pitching.
Steven Matz, NYM
Matz has allowed a hard-hit rate 21 percentage points higher than his yearly average recently. Even without Ryan Zimmerman, it’s a terrible matchup for Matz against a Nationals offense with the highest ISO versus southpaws. Furthermore, Washington’s prominent hitters — Jayson Werth, Bryce Harper, Danny Espinosa, and Wilson Ramos — have all seen their salaries decrease whether they have positive differentials or not.
Anibal Sanchez is Still in the Rotation
If you’re playing in the non-Coors slate, the Blue Jays squaring off against Sanchez will likely be the chalk. Look no further than his averages in his three most recent starts if you’re curious as to why — a miserable -1.28 DraftKing points and 5.6 runs scored. What’s more is that Sanchez has allowed over 2.0 HR/9 in the last year. The stacks listed above will have lower ownership, but their floors aren’t nearly as high as Toronto’s this afternoon.
Other Hitters
J.T. Realmuto, MIA
Assuming Realmuto leads off, he’s one of numerous Marlins hitters in a terrific spot against Cody Reed, who’s allowed at least one home run in all four of his starts this year. Realmuto has also averaged a hard-hit rate 11 percentage points higher than his yearly average in the past 15 days.
Chris Davis, BAL
Davis has averaged a batted-ball distance 13 feet farther than the next first baseman over the last two weeks. Not only are his 11 DK Pro Trends the second most at his position, his .631 slugging percentage trails only David Ortiz’s in this slate.
Wilmer Flores, NYM
Name a category and Flores likely leads it at his position. That includes FanDuel Pro Trends, recent batted-ball distance, Bargain Rating at FanDuel, and slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. He’s also one of only three third basemen with an ISO greater than .300 today.
Adrian Beltre, TEX
Both Beltre’s .110 and .096 wOBA and ISO differentials are top-four at his position. The Rangers are currently tied with the Blue Jays for the highest-implied total of the evening. They’re a stack that could potentially produce similar results while having lower ownership.
George Springer, HOU
Sean Manaea, who faces the Astros today, is tied with Tom Koehler in allowing the highest batted-ball distance among pitchers over the last 15 days. Better for Springer is that he’s slugging .537 against right-handed pitching. His .401 wOBA ranks top-10 among outfielders.
Good luck!
