In this slate, we have Clayton Kershaw, Jose Fernandez, Chris Sale, Johnny Cueto, and a game at Coors Field, which means that we are faced with one overarching question: Should we pay up for pitching or stack elite bats? Let’s talk through our options.
As we did yesterday, we’ll color code players by Bargain Rating. If a player has a higher Bargain Rating on FanDuel, they’ll be in red; if they have a higher Bargain Rating on DraftKings, they’ll be in green.
Pitchers
Clayton Kershaw is $14,200 on DraftKings. That’s expensive, but our free Trends tool shows that super-expensive pitchers still provide value, and that’s especially true for Kershaw: Out of the 39 times that a pitcher has been priced at $14,000 or higher on DraftKings, 30 of them have been Kershaw. In those times, he has drastically exceeded salary-based expectations, with a Plus/Minus of +7.29. Kershaw is typically really expensive and he still dominates value.
Jose Fernandez faces the Cubs, who are usually a tough matchup, but they have an implied Vegas total of only 2.9 runs and Fernandez has a slate-high 12.127 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9). His K Prediction is 9.1 and he’s pitching in Miami, which gives him a Park Factor Rating of 92. That combination of high K Prediction and Park Factor is rare and valuable. Although the Cubs are a risky matchup, Fernandez’s Upside is too difficult to overlook, especially in tournaments.
Plus/Minus, Upside, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Speaking of elite Park Factor Ratings: Johnny Cueto gets the Phillies in San Francisco, which offers the best Park Factor available to pitchers. He’s comparable to Kershaw and Fernandez in terms of pricing — despite having a relatively uninspiring K Prediction of 6.2 — but of the triumvirate he has the best advanced stats. In his last two starts he has allowed a hard-hit rate of only 13 percent, an elite mark. Given the value that he offers on FanDuel and his status as a huge favorite — he has a massive -245 moneyline — he probably is preferable on FanDuel. He has a good chance of earning the 12-point victory bonus.
I’ll mention one value pitcher in case you want to forgo the aces and load up on bats. Nathan Eovaldi is also a massive favorite, trailing only Kershaw and Cueto with his -200 moneyline. He does have some concerning advanced stats lately, as shown by his recent hard-hit rate of 40 percent — but that’s mitigated in part by his 50 percent ground-ball rate. With his high probability of winning, he’s perhaps the best super-cheap option on the board.
Batters
The Rockies-Diamondbacks affair had an unreal total of 11.5 runs yesterday — and 17 runs were scored. Today, the total is 12.5 runs. Trevor Story is still very cheap on FanDuel at $3,500 and he’s crushing the ball with a recent hard-hit rate of 50 percent. The cheaper guys in this matchup will likely be highly rostered given the pricing at pitcher today, so it could definitely be a worthwhile move to target the more expensive batters in tournaments. Nolan Arenado could be a great pay-up pivot, with his .526 slugging, 40 percent hard-hit rate, and 10 DraftKings Pro Trends.
Outside of Coors, the Reds have an amazing matchup against Luis Perdomo, who allows a slate-high 1.776 HR/9. Jay Bruce — who is currently the highest-rated batter on DraftKings in the Bales Model — boasts a .288 Isolated Power (ISO) and .536 slugging percentage versus righties. And even more impressive, he has a recent batted-ball distance of 251 feet. Adam Duvall has an even higher ISO against righties at .349, and Joey Votto has an impressive line-drive rate of 46 percent in his last 10 games. Perdomo gives up big hits and the Reds have the bats to take advantage.
For seemingly the millionth day in a row, the Red Sox and Rangers are playing and expected to score a million runs (the actual number is 10). Shin-Soo Choo has 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings and a batted-ball distance of 248 feet in his last 10 games. On the other side, Mookie Betts has had declining stats lately — his groundball rate is up to a very-high 55 percent — but his .515 slugging mark versus Martin Perez (owner of a 1.419 WHIP) is one to target in this high-total game.
Our Vegas dashboard is my favorite place to watch updating line movement and also to see Team Value Ratings for each site. Our Team Value Rating is an awesome metric that measures the value of a team’s collective salary on a production basis. Think about it this way: Which team offers more value — one implied to score 5.5 runs and full of $3,000 batters? Or one implied to score the same number of runs but full of $5,000 batters? Clearly the first teams offers more value.
On DraftKings, there is no team with a higher Team Value Rating than the Yankees. (Team Value Ratings auto-adjust when lineups are confirmed, so check back often.) Brian McCann has elite advanced stats coming into the game: He has a batted-ball distance of 252 feet, a fly-ball rate of 54 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 45 percent. A Yankees stack built around McCann is definitely viable due to their high Team Value Rating.
Balancing elite bats and ace pitchers will certainly be difficult on this 15-game Sunday slate. However, using our unique metrics, you can start to narrow down how you want to attack your contests.
Good luck!
