The DraftKings’ all day slate excludes the early game between the Yankees and Indians, a contest that will likely feature rain. Only eight teams are currently implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs, and the wind is projected to blow out in eight of the 15 parks.
Pitchers
Chalk Boulevard
Excluding Tyler Skaggs’ recent two-game dominance, Stephen Strasburg supplies the best WHIP (0.915), HR/9 (0.91), SO/9 (11.5), and moneyline (-216) in the main slate.
In his last eight starts, Strasburg has pitched at least 6.2 innings and averaged a +5.02 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +9.63 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. In his last 30 starts, Strasburg has provided one Dud and 83.0 percent Consistency on DraftKings.
The Nationals have supported Strasburg with 6.75 runs on average this season — the best mark in the league — and they’ve won 18 of his 20 starts. Despite the Giants sporting the fourth-lowest SO/AB (0.212) rate on the slate, Strasburg leads all pitchers with a 7.9 K Prediction.
Angel Pagan will rest today, according to the Giants’ manager. Joe Panik is expected to move up to the two-hole, but since the Giants are currently implied to score a slate-low 3.2 runs against the Nationals, Strasburg’s claim as the premiere pitching option fortifies. He’s the third-most expensive pitcher on DraftKings, and it appears the only factor that could diminish his productivity is the impending rain storm this afternoon.
Aaron Sanchez vs. Danny Duffy: The Dawn of Opposing Pitchers
Sanchez and Duffy both have a mother named Martha*. Perhaps this common ground may warrant dual consideration on DraftKings.
The Blue Jays are closely monitoring Sanchez’s innings as the season winds down, and they may eventually shift him into a relief role. Sanchez has offered 75.0 percent Consistency in his 16 road starts since 2015, accompanied by a +7.48 Plus/Minus on FanDuel and +3.90 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Duffy recency bias is in full effect. His 16-strikeout, one-hit performance on the day of the trade deadline transformed into a slate-high $12,900 price tag on DraftKings today, the highest of his career and only the fifth time he’s exceeded $9,000 in 60 starts on DraftKings.
Duffy has produced at least seven strikeouts in six of his last eight starts, and his K Prediction of 7.3 is the third-best mark on the slate. Sanchez, on the other hand, has plateaued at seven strikeouts over his last nine starts, which translates into a 6.41 SO/9 rate. The Royals’ 0.211 SO/AB rate is the third-lowest today.
Both pitchers exhibit a Bargain Rating of less than 10 percent on DraftKings, and Sanchez’s recent advanced stats dwarf Duffy’s, headlined by a 64 percent ground-ball rate and slate-best four percent line-drive rate over his last two starts. Rostering both will only leave room for discount bats. Sanchez and Strasburg may be a more potent duo, but if you’re looking to differentiate in tournaments, you will likely grab Duffy at low ownership due to his inflated cost and the Royals’ underdog status.
Kluber and Arrieta: Early Slate
Corey Kluber is only available on FanDuel due to the early start time. He leads all pitchers with 48 FanDuel points per game over the past month, and earlier in July, Kluber recorded eight strikeouts in eight innings against today’s opponent, the Yankees.
Jake Arrieta is pitching on the road, an environment for him that has parlayed into 45.5 percent Consistency and a -2.22 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and -2.51 Plus/Minus on FanDuel this season. His recent advanced stats are stellar, but he’s only exceeded salary-based expectations one time in his last seven starts. Aiding his cause is the Athletics’ slate-low 0.251 projected wOBA.
Arrieta costs $200 more than Kluber, and both are projected for 6.6 strikeouts. The Cubs and Indians are first and third, respectively, in projected team wOBA, but the determining factor may ultimately be the weather. A light rain is expected in New York this afternoon. Kluber projects as the safer option if the forecast clears up, and Arrieta is always a tournament consideration.
Others
Carlos Martinez takes the mound eyeing his fourth straight win. However, it’s Busch Stadium dirt, which hasn’t been friendly over the past two seasons:
FanDuel
DraftKings
Martinez has exceeded salary-based expectations more than half the time whether hosting or visiting, but his Upside is extremely limited at home. Although the Braves have the fewest home runs, runs, RBIs, and lowest Isolated Power (ISO) mark in the entire league, their .207 SO/AB rate is the second-worst mark on the slate for opposing pitchers. Also, Jerry Layne will be calling ball and strikes, a circumstance that has yielded a historical -1.98 Plus/Minus on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Jake Thompson, making his first career start, is equipped with a 7.1 K Prediction pitching in Petco Park at $4,400 on DraftKings. Similar pitchers have netted a +1.35 Plus/Minus on 56.4 percent Consistency. Until this year, Thompson was a strikeout maestro in the minors. He’s since become more of a ground-ball specialist, lowering his SO/9 to 6.0 in AAA. However, the Padres’ team SO/9 is a slate-worst 0.330, and pairing Thompson with one of the expensive pitchers on the slate will provide ample room to target Coors Field hitters.
Stacks
The top-five rated stacks on FanDuel using the CSURAM88 Model belong to the Rockies. Let’s look elsewhere for value.
After eliminating the Rockies, the highest-rated four-man stack on FanDuel, which is also the cheapest among the top 12, belongs to the Diamondbacks. They are currently implied to score 5.1 runs, the fourth-highest total on the slate. They were stymied by right-handed pitcher Matt Garza less than two weeks ago, but he only notched two strikeouts in six innings. Shifting venues to Chase Field doesn’t bode well for Garza: He’s historically supplied a -5.34 Plus/Minus on 30.9 percent Consistency on the road.
The same story played out in the stacking tool for DraftKings. Coors Field was responsible for eight of the top nine five-man stacks. Again, we’ll move away from those and look at a Nationals five-man stack:
Daniel Murphy (75.0 percent) and Trea Turner (70.0 percent) have been the most consistent hitters on DraftKings over the past month. Four of the five participants, sans Bryce Harper, possess positive differentials in batted-ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage over the past 15 days. Harper has only three extra-base hits since the All-Star break and a -3.63 Plus/Minus over the past nine games. Pairing him with the most expensive catcher (Wilson Ramos at $4,600) probably isn’t the best allocation of resources, but it should generate a unique tournament lineup.
Hitters
David Dahl is the cheapest hitter in the Marlins-Rockies matchup. His $3,000 salary is a $1,100 drop from Friday’s price tag, and he’s recorded a hit in every game of his career — 11 in total. Dahl leads all hitters in wOBA (0.482) and slugging percentage (0.710). Fade at your own risk.
David Ortiz will play first base for the first time in 11 months, and Dustin Pedroia may not play after fouling a ball off his left shin and exiting Friday’s game in the fourth inning. Xander Bogaerts typically slides up to the two-hole when Pedroia sits, but it’s currently Brock Holt projected to replace Pedroia in the lineup. At $2,700 on DraftKings, Holt registers as a punt play for a team currently implied to score 4.1 runs.
Neil Walker is on baby watch this weekend. (I believe his wife is one week past her due date, per a segment on a recent SNY broadcast.) Wilmer Flores against a left-handed pitcher is almost the same thing as David Ortiz facing a right-handed pitcher. Flores is cheaper on FanDuel ($2,800), but his reach across sites and contests knows no bounds.
Troy Tulowitzki costs a season-low $2,900 on DraftKings. Not to be outdone, Elvis Andrus costs a season-low $2,800 on DraftKings. The reduction appears just. In 24 starts against left-handed pitchers this season, Tulowitzki has provided a -1.23 Plus/Minus on 29.2 percent Consistency. Andrus’ recent advanced stats are putrid, exacerbated by his 70 percent ground-ball rate over the past 15 days. This is definitely a buyer beware situation.
Brian Dozier has recorded a hit in 14 straight games, the longest active streak in the American League. Zack Cozart is right behind Dozier with a hit in 12 straight starts. Dozier is cheaper on FanDuel and Cozart presents a 91 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings. Their teams are currently implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs, but Dozier is the superior option on either site given Cozart’s 16 percent Consistency on FanDuel and 29 percent Consistency on DraftKings over the past month.
